Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jay Ajayi

Breakout.

That word is used too loosely in today’s world of sports. Players have breakout games. Breakout seasons. I even heard someone refer to a player having a “breakout quarter”. What does it mean to breakout?

To me, a breakout can’t be determined in the moment. You cannot know for sure if a player has truly broken out till a much later date. Their breakout game or breakout season must be accompanied with consistency in the following games or seasons. One big game or season does not a breakout make.

In the world of fantasy sports, we live for the breakouts. We draft “late round fliers” that we hope have that breakout season or we take chances on guys that have underperformed for the first few years of their career. The breakout is an elusive creature to capture, but if you can catch it, fantasy immortality awaits…

What’s up, GF2 Fans! I’m going to be giving Geoff a hand with some of these 2016 fantasy football breakout candidates. Keep your eye out for other installments between the two of us going forward. The season is drawing near for us, which means that it’s already time to be thinking about our fantasy football drafts.

Please don’t confuse a candidate as someone I’m necessarily recommending you draft. In fact, I expect some of these guys will fail and I will say so in my narrative. I’m simply highlighting a few guys that will be drafted with the expectation of having a breakout season, and at the end of each profile, I will assign that player with a percentage. That percentage will represent my thoughts on him having that coveted breakout.

RB Jay Ajayi | Miami Dolphins | 2nd Year

2015 Stats:

Rushing: 187 rushing yards & 1 TD

Receiving: 7 receptions for 90 yards

Coming into the 2015 NFL Draft, Jay Ajayi was actually a guy that I thought would be a sleeper pick for the right franchise. Well, his first season didn’t go quite as well as I’d hoped it would but I believe that big things could be coming his way in 2016! With a guy as productive as Lamar Miller ahead of him on the Dolphins’ depth chart last season, Ajayi was bound to have a lackluster rookie campaign. This season, though, Miller is now in Houston, which makes way for him to climb to the top of the running backs list for the Dolphins.

In 2014, Ajayi was playing stellar for Boise State prior to making the jump to the NFL. That season, he rushed for 1,823 yards and 28 touchdowns. That same year, he also caught a cool 50 passes for four touchdowns as well. He’ll have big shoes to fill this season because Miller was a major part of this Miami offense last year. Last season, Miller rushed 194 times for 872 yards and eight scores. He also grabbed 47 receptions for 397 yards and two touchdowns in 2015. I truly think that Miller’s 2015 stats are easily reachable for Ajayi this season, making him an ultra viable fantasy option.

In his rookie season with Miami, Ajayi rushed just 49 times for 187 yards and a touchdown. Things are going to change for the young running back this season because the competition isn’t quite as stiff. He’ll be competing with the likes of Daniel Thomas, Isaiah Pead and rookie running back Kenyan Drake. None of these guys should be able to knock him out of the RB1 slot on this Dolphins depth chart coming into Week 1 of the upcoming season. I could easily see Ajayi reaching RB2 status for our fantasy lineups this year and beyond. Right now on Fantasy Pros, he his ranked as the 22nd best running back on the draft board but I think he could get into the Top 20 easily.

Ajayi has stated this offseason that his plan is to be the guy in Miami and is really working on his craft. He’s losing some weight and is truly impressing head coach Adam Gase. Gase stated that Ajayi does everything that the coaching staff expects of him and works hard every single practice that he’s on the field. One other thing that he has to look forward to is an improved Dolphins offensive line. With the addition of Laremy Tunsil to the line along with Mike Pouncey and Branden Albert, this Miami O-Line is looking to make waves this season. Also, with playmakers such as Ryan Tannehill and Jarvis Landry on the field with him, Ajayi will have less focus from defenders on him this year.

2016 Projection

190 carries for 900 yards and 6 TDs| 25 rec 220 yards 2 TDs

Potential Breakout Percentage

55%