Swing for the Fences: DFS Home Run Predictions (May 24)

Welcome to a new series of articles called “Swing for the Fences” where I will try to project and predict a player at each position that is in the best situation to hit a home run that day. I will also give a “longshot” option with a cheap player that has a shot to go deep.

Home runs are a big factor in the success of DFS baseball lineups, with a single swing of the bat your DFS lineup can go from out of the money to cashing or from a modest payout to a big GPP win. Predicting home runs isn’t easy, of course, even if I predicted Chris Davis to hit a home run every day he played last year, I would still only have been right less than 30% of the time. I will also track my success (or failure) along the way.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – Facing Reds’ rookie pitcher, Daniel Wright, making his first big league start and a Reds’ bullpen that has allowed the most home runs (36) in the majors this season.

1B – Chris Davis (BAL) – Has two home runs in 13 at-bats against opposing pitcher Doug Fister in his career. Fister has allowed 1.67 HR/9 to lefties this season.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) – Will look to take out some frustration on the baseball before his suspension kicks in. Odor has a .224 ISO against righties this season and has hit six of his seven home run against righties. He will be facing Jhoulys Chacin who as a 17.2% HR/FB rate this year.

SS – Manny Machado (BAL) – Has hit 11 of his 12 home runs this season against right-handed pitching and will face righty Doug Fister tonight in a game with a home run friendly park in Houston.

3B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) – Has been heating up recently with home runs in two of his last three games. Faces Nathan Eovaldi tonight who he has hit two home runs in 10 at-bats against in his career.

OF – JD Martinez (DET) – Has hit five home runs in his last eight games and will face Jeremy Hellickson tonight who has given up 1.72 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) – Faces Kendall Graveman who has given up 3.12 HR/9 to righties this season while Cruz maintains a career .231 ISO against righties.

OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) – See Yasmani Grandal

Longshot – Dustin Ackley (NYY) – Has two home runs in 13 at-bats against R.A. Dickey in his career. Dickey has allowed 2.11 HR/9 to lefties this season.

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