2016 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Jay Ajayi

RB Jay Ajayi | Miami Dolphins | Second Year

2015 Stats: 49 carries for 187 yards, 1 TD, 7 receptions for 90 yards

After being lightly used as a rookie last season, due in part to a rib injury that sidelined him early in the season, the free agent departure of Lamar Miller has opened the door for Jay Ajayi to be the Miami Dolphins’ No. 1 running back. That, along with the arrival of Adam Gase as head coach, has led to Ajayi becoming a popular fantasy breakout candidate for 2016.

Ajayi fell to the fifth round in the 2015 draft due to concerns about a knee issue, but his production at Boise State shouldn’t be disregarded. In a full-time role over the 2013 and 2014 seasons, Ajayi averaged 5.4 yards per carry with 46 combined rushing touchdowns and 72 receptions (50 catches in 2014). A lower level of competition should also not be forgotten, but production is production and Ajayi passed that criteria with flying colors over the final two seasons of his college career.

Gase has said he views Ajayi as the Dolphins’ starting running back, while also suggesting he wants someone that can fulfill a three-down role. Add that to reports of Ajayi’s struggles as a pass receiver during OTAs, with Gase’s own assertion earlier this month that he wanted to see Ajayi improve in the passing game, and suddenly rookie Kenyan Drake looks like a real threat to take away significant snaps on passing downs.

The Dolphins have also been rumored to have interest in free agent running back Arian Foster, which may not come to full fruition until he’s fully healthy and will reportedly workout for teams in around a month. That has to be a concern for any fantasy owner looking to invest in Ajayi during an early draft or auction, as a dreaded backfield committee would be in the offing for the Dolphins if Foster is signed.

Even before Miami had any possible interest in Foster, I struggled to buy into Ajayi as much of a breakout candidate this year. That is obviously not changing for me now, and Ajayi has particular downside, or at least a very low ceiling, in PPR leagues.

2016 Projection

240 carries for 920 yards, five touchdowns, 20 receptions for 190 yards, 0 touchdowns

Breakout Percentage

10%

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