College Football: Five head coaches on the hot seat

My last article depicted NFL head coaches on the hot seat for the upcoming year. Being a head coach in the NFL is more managing people than building elaborate schemes and playbooks. NFL teams will eventually catch up to schemes. NFL coaches have to be able to reinvent themselves nearly every year to continuously compete due to the salary cap; college football coaches do not have to reinvent themselves.

Today I will look at the college ranks.:

Kevin Sumlin of Texas A&M: Sumlin started his career at Texas A&M with a bang winning eleven games in 2012 and only losing to LSU and Florida by a combined eight points (in the first year of being in the brutal SEC west none the less). During the 2012 season, Johnny Manziel lit up the SEC in route to a Heisman trophy throwing for over thirty-seven hundred yards and rushing for another fourteen hundred. The following season A&M slipped to 9 wins and 4 losses which is not alarming considering the Johnny Manziel drama and every loss was to a ranked team. The problem, however, lies in the fact that Sumlin is only winning eight to nine games a year in the state of Texas(not a particular patient fan base). In the four years that Sumlin has coached at Texas A&M, he is recruiting ranking have been falling with the exception of one year. In each of the past five recruiting seasons, Sumlin has finished at 21, 6, 7, 10, and 20th with an average of 12.8. With Texas struggling to put a consistent winner on the field Texas A&M is the biggest football school in one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. Coupling with the diminishing recruiting rankings is that Sumlin and A&M are struggling to hang on to five-star quarterbacks; Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray both left the program and another five-star recruit verbally de-committed from Texas A&M over a coaches twitter rant about the program. That story can be found here. A program can win without five-star talent at quarterback (Alabama) but a strong running game can carry an offense or a stout defense can bail out bad quarterback…..Texas A&M has neither. This season A&M plays UCLA, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and LSU. That could be six losses right there.

Gus Malzahn of Auburn: Sticking with the SEC West Gus Malzahn quickly turned around Auburn in 2013 reaching the last BCS title game (and having a 21-13 lead in the 4th quarter). Auburn did have a bunch of help that year with Miracle and Jordan Hare and the kick six game in the Iron Bowl. Outside of that year Auburn has declined only winning eight and seven games respectively. Malzahn’s offense disappeared after the 2013 year…..considering that is Malzahn’s specialty that is not good. (Malzahn even wrote a book on the no-huddle hurry up offense). Changing defensive coordinator’s every year does not help matters either. Going from a 4-2-5 to a 4-3 requires a few years of recruiting to attract talent to run each defense. Competing in the SEC West is tough: Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Mississippi State are all solid programs to compete within your own division plus an opening game against Clemson (three teams that are going to compete for the college football playoff: Alabama, LSU and Clemson) and games against Arkansas and a road game at Georgia does not bode well for Gus Malzahn and the Auburn Tigers.

Mark Helfrich of Oregon: This may come as a surprise as Helfrich has won over 80% of his games at Oregon, but watching Oregon the past few years this program is going downhill. Under Chip Kelly, Oregon could score at will against anyone by running Kelly’s version of the blur offense. Helfrich offense is not scoring as efficient as years past. Chip Kelly primarily ran inside zone, outside zone, option and some power. Kelly’s passing game complemented those running plays creating a series based offense (basically three or four plays that all look the same but each is a counter to the defensive adjustment). More information about Kelly’s offense can be found at fishduck.com and here. Helfrich offense is more power running game with pulling guards. This type of running game requires a different type of lineman (zone=lighter, quicker lineman, power=heavier, powerful lineman)  Changing defensive coordinators is another issue switching from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 defense takes years of recruiting and breaking in a new quarterback will be challenging for Helfrich this upcoming season. Plugging in transfer quarterbacks may work for a season but as a long term approach to team-builder, it is very risky.

Paul Johnson of Georgia Tech: I have written about option offense previously outlining the history of the offense and as a “Moneyball” offense. Personally, I am a fan of the option, and love to watch teams that run the offense. Teams that run the option (regardless of formation) are playing 11-9 football with one or two defenders not being blocked. Option teams do not require great athletes to move the football but one key element remains when recruiting: The quarterback. Johnson and other option teams have to get creative when recruiting an option quarterback. (Justin Thomas was initially a collegiate corner before transitioning to quarterback). Johnson’s issue is that the spread offense has taken over college football and makes quarterbacks life easier with RPO’s (run/pass option) and package plays have taken the art of reading defense out of the quarterback’s hands making a three-star recruit valuable in today’s game. Consistently is another problem for Johnson; Johnson has only won ten games twice in his tenure at Georgia Tech in eight seasons. Playing in the Coastal division in the ACC is the easier of the two divisions with Miami, Virginia Tech having sub-par seasons recently (for now…..) the Coastal is wide open. I expect Georgia Tech to have a bounce back season, but another losing season Johnson will be on the hot seat. The Athletic Director may want to hire a new coach that will bring the spread offense to Georgia Tech to keep up with the “Jones’s” in College Football.

Mike Riley of Nebraska: Last season one of the most surprising moves was Nebraska firing Bo Pelini and replacing him with Mike Riley. Pelini had his issues on the field with his temper but consistently won nine to ten games a year. Riley only has one ten win season his entire college coaching career that has lasted fifteen seasons. Playing in the Big 10 west division Nebraska avoids playing Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State every year. Beating Illinois, Indiana, Purdue and Maryland within the division is very doable. Riley is an average coach that will not make headlines for his temper but the on-field results have not been there. The hiring of Riley at Nebraska seems like a stopgap solution until another coach who can put a good product on the field is available. I would be shocked if Riley lasts more than two seasons at Nebraska before the fan base becomes impatient and wants a winner again. The whole hiring process is like putting a round peg into a square hole.

I excluded Charlie Strong of Texas from the list of coaches on the hot seat for this upcoming season. Charlie Strong inherited a mess at Texas and needed time to overhaul the program. Imagine yourself trying to cook dinner (win games) without any food, equipment or spices. First, you would have to remodel the kitchen (overhaul the program), buy equipment and spices (recruit players) in order to make dinner. Strong’s first two years as Louisville’s head coach were struggles then the Cardinals broke through winning over ten games in the next two season’s. History dictates Strong’s third year in a program will result in a breakthrough.

If let go three of the coaches (Sumlin, Malzahan, and Helfrich) will land as offensive coordinators in a power five conference. Johnson will land a head coaching position at a smaller school perhaps Georgia Southern. Riley, on the other hand, may have exhausted his head coaching opportunities.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.