2016 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Tyler Lockett
WR Tyler Lockett | Seattle Seahawks | 2nd Year
2015 Stats: 51 Receptions for 664 yards, 6 TDs, 1,231 total return yards, 2 TDs
Tyler Lockett’s 2015 rookie season was evenly divided by a Week 9 bye, with 20 receptions (on 28 targets) for 253 yards and one touchdown in the first eight games and 31 catches (on 41 targets) for 411 yards and five touchdowns over the final eight. That increased production coincided with an uptick in playing time, as Lockett played more than 65 percent of Seattle’s offensive snaps in six of those final eight games.
With the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks may become a more pass-oriented offense in 2016. When “Beast Mode” was sidelined from Week 11 on last season, quarterback Russell Wilson had 24 passing touchdowns with just one interception over that span. That run coincided with wide receiver Doug Baldwin catching 10 touchdowns from Week 12-Week 15, and Lockett had his two best yardage games of the season over that same stretch (seven catches for 90 yards in Week 13, six catches for 104 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14).
Baldwin is still Seattle’s top wide receiver, but his 14 touchdowns in 2015 is not repeatable and his close to 76 percent catch rate may regress as well. Jermaine Kearse was re-signed in free agency, but he is in line to fall behind Lockett in the pecking order for targets.
Fantasy Pros has Lockett as WR37 in current standard scoring mock drafts, but if preseason buzz continues his cost on draft day stands to rise beyond what would be considered good value.
With added value in leagues that count return yardage, Lockett is worth rolling the dice on as WR3 in 12-team leagues. Anything beyond that is asking a lot though, which keeps me from jumping onto his breakout bandwagon with both feet.
2016 Projection
63 receptions for 840 yards, 6 TDs
Breakout Percentage
50%
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