Breakout Candidate: Ryan Mathews

Ryan Mathews will be an effective sleeper and starter in fantasy football this year. Wait! What?!?

Did we just get into a DeLorean, hit 88 MPH, and travel back to 2011? As heavy as this prediction may seem,  no, we didn’t. For the past two years, Mathews has been no more than a 3rd down threat and a PPR specialty back.

Due to his injury history and lack of carries, many fantasy players have completely disregard Matthews as a threat. Use their ignorance to your advantage.

Ryan Mathews’ ADP for RBs on Fantasypros.com is 21st, behind other backs such as DeMarco Murray, Latavius Murray, and Jeremy Hill. All of these backs have worrisome backfields and capable backups who are ready to take advantage of any reps they get.

In Tennessee, 2nd round pick Derrick Henry will be pushing for the starting job throughout the entire season. The Raiders coaching staff invested in Texas Tech alum DeAndre Washington and has shown a lack of confidence in Latavius Murray. In Cincinnati, Giovanni Bernard has arguably performed better than Hill on multiple occasions.

Meanwhile, in Philly, Mathews sole competitor is Wendell Smallwood, a 5th round pick out of West Virginia.

Many of us forget how talented Ryan Mathews actually is. Though he did not have a bell cow role last year, he averaged 5.0 YPC, and 4.5 in 2014.  During the four games in which he had at least ten carries, he maintained an impressive YPC rate with 4.6.

Aside from 2012, Ryan Mathews earned top 15 positional rankings every year he was the starting running back. In 2011 the former Chargers’ back ranked 7th, running for over 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Two years later he had a career high 1,255 rushing yards, good for 4th in the NFL.

Though slotted behind DeMarco Murray last year when Mathews did get touches he performed in line with a low-end RB1. In his four ten carry games, he averaged 10.5 points. This amount multiplied over 16 games is 167.5 points, ranking 7th in standard scoring for RBs.

Another positive working towards Mathews future is coach Doug Pederson’s history in Kansas City. As a former offensive coordinator for the Chiefs, Pederson repeatedly had success with his running backs. In 2013 and 2014 Jamaal Charles may have been a factor, but when Charles tore his ACL in 2015, the success continued with Charcandrick West (4.0) and Spencer Ware (5.0).

If Mathews finished second for YPC out of all qualified backs with Chip Kelly, imagine his  potential with an RB friendly coach.

Mathews does have a track record of injuries, but you will not find a back without red flags in where he is being drafted. Take a bet on him, and he will pay off big time.

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