Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/10)

After a rough day on Monday which produced zero home runs, I try to get back on track looking at Wednesday night’s 12-game slate. Not a lot of value in today’s selections so you will need to go cheap at pitcher to try to fit a lot of these hitters in.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Jonathan Lucroy (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Lucroy has a .217 ISO against lefties this season and will face Rockies’ lefty Jorge De La Rosa in the heat of Texas tonight.

1B – David Ortiz (BOS) (FanDuel: $4,500 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Ortiz has a massive .434 ISO at home against righties and will be at home to face righty Nathan Eovaldi who has allowed 2.03 HR/9 to lefties this season.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Dozier homered yesterday and is recently coming off a 16-game hitting streak. He has a .409 ISO against lefties this season and has gone 5-for-11 with a double and homer off lefty Dallas Keuchel in his career.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Correa also homered yesterday and has hit 14 of his 16 homers off righties this season. He will face Twins’ righty Ervin Santana who has reverse splits this season allowing 1.29 HR/9 to righties.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Arenado has hit three homers in his last three games in Coors Field but will go on the road tonight to another hitter-friendly environment in Texas to face lefty Martin Perez who has allowed 12 of his 13 homers to righties this season.

OF – Matt Kemp (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Kemp gets a favorable matchup against Brewers’ righty Chase Anderson who has big reverse splits allowing a .421 wOBA and 2.25 HR/9 to righties this season. Meanwhile, Kemp is 6-for-14 with two homers off Anderson in his career.

OF – Mark Trumbo (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Trumbo only has one homer in his last 15 games but he could get back on track tonight against Athletics lefty Ross Detwiler who has allowed a .355 wOBA to righties in his career.

OF – Brandon Moss (STL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Moss has a .386 ISO against righties this season and will face Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani who has trouble with lefties allowing a .370 wOBA and 1.78 HR/9 this season.

Longshot – Melvin Upton Jr. (TOR) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,100) – Upton has become a forgotten man since his move to Toronto batting just .132 with no homers. He has hit lefties much better than righties this season with a .278 ISO against southpaws. He will face a tough lefty in the Rays’ Blake Snell but for a cheap price he may be worth a gamble to hit his first homer as a Blue Jay.

 

Monday, August 8 –  Results

Pos	Name	HR	FD Pts
C	Evan Gattis	0	0.0
1B	Chris Carter	0	6.2
2B	Ian Kinsler	0	6.0
SS	Carlos Correa	0	6.0
3B	Jedd Gyorko	0	3.0
OF	Jose Bautista	0	19.5
OF	Stephen Piscotty	0	15.7
OF	Giancarlo Stanton	0	6.5
Longshot	Nick Franklin	0	0.0

 

Season Results

Pos	Picks	HR	HR Rate	Avg FD Pts
C	22	8	36.4%	13.90
1B	22	5	22.7%	11.07
2B	23	1	4.3%	9.80
SS	23	4	17.4%	11.10
3B	22	4	18.2%	12.62
OF	69	19	27.5%	14.59
Longshot	15	2	13.3%	9.41
Total	196	43	21.9%	12.53

 

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