Fantasy Football: Potential Draft Busts

It seems over the past few seasons that we’ve seen more busts from the top of the list than ever before. Just last year, only a handful of players selected in the first round finished the year worthy of their first round selection. Others like Eddie Lacy and Jeremy Hill were major disappointments for their fantasy owners that deemed barely worthy of a waiver wire pickup when it was all said and done. Of course, injuries play a factor but unless a player already has an injury history, it’s not something anyone can predict.

Most of the time, players become busts simply because they don’t put up the numbers we come to expect from top-rated players. Two players that come to mind over the past few years that fit the description are DeSean Jackson and Alfred Morris. Both players had been projected within the top 50 for the better part of three years. While Jackson has shown the capability to score a couple touchdowns and go for over 100 yards in a game, his inconsistencies and injury history make him for a better DFS player than anything else. Morris, on the other hand, has remained healthy throughout his career and rushed for over 1,000 yards in three straight seasons. However, in Washington, he was rarely ever used in the passing game and was often overlooked by the Redskins coaching staff in favor of Roy Helu Jr. (remember him?) in goal line situations, limiting Morris’ touchdown opportunities.

This year, there will be other names that we will declare as fantasy busts when it’s all said and done. GoingFor2’s own, Mike Cunningham gave us his prediction on some possible QB busts we could see develop this season. Now we list some skill positioned players that have potential bust written all over their radar.

Doug Martin – RB11 | ADP 28 | Projection: 27th Overall

Doug Martin burst onto the scene in 2012 as a rookie in both rushing and receiving. He finished the year as the 2nd highest rated running back, but fell off considerably the two seasons to follow. Last season, Martin was conveniently in a contract year and showed signs of his rookie year. The Bucs gave Martin the long-term deal he was seeking this past off-season and now fantasy experts are projecting he will be a mirror image of the player we saw last year.

Some of the Martin projections have gotten out of hand. I even heard one analyst project Martin will rush for nearly 1,900 yards in 2016. He’s never even reached 1,500 yards, but hey, whatever helps you sleep at night. Martin battled injuries in the two seasons that he regressed and now that he’s gotten paid, I project more of the same. I think Martin may turn out a lot like Alfred Morris getting a bulk of the carries, but backup RB Charles Sims could see a good amount of calls go his way in the passing game. I expect Martin to have an average season and should break 1,000 yards for the season should he stay healthy, but still end up nowhere near worthy of his 3rd round projection.

Sammy Watkins – WR18 | ADP 31 | Projection: 31st Overall

For the life of me, I cannot understand the hype surrounding Sammy Watkins from a fantasy perspective. He’s more of a player that I would target in a friendly DFS matchup than someone I’d look to have on my team all season as a WR1 or WR2. Despite missing only three games in the first two years of his career, Watkins is another player you have to monitor with injuries.

Watkins has amassed just 125 receptions in his first two seasons, which would make him better rated for a mid-round selection. Players like Michael Crabtree and Marvin Jones recorded more catches in 2015 and are rated much lower than Watkins for the coming season. In contrast, Watkins is a deep threat, which Crabtree and Jones are typically not. Still, other receivers like Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, among many others, have higher upside than Watkins but are rated lower. I’d prefer to pass on Watkins and wait to nab one of those guys in the 4th and 5th rounds.

Carlos Hyde – RB15 | ADP 43 | Projection: 40th Overall

In week 1 last year, Carlos Hyde rushed for 168 yards and two touchdowns. It looked as though he would have a monster season but Hyde fell off in the worst way following his week 1 success. Hyde totaled just 114 yards in the three games to follow with zero touchdowns. Eventually, Hyde was put on injured reserve after weeks of battling a foot injury. He finished with just 470 yards and 3 touchdowns on the season in seven games.

His 470 yards were still more than he produced in 2014 when he ran for 333 as a rookie sharing time with former niner Frank Gore. Hyde has yet to complete a full season but fantasy projectors are, in a sense, giving Hyde a pass. Fantasy Pros ranks Hyde as the 15th best running back this year and the 40th overall player, which is right around his projection this time last season. That’s ahead of other running backs like Latavius Murray and DeMarco Murray. Hyde has mentioned his goal this season is to run for 1,500 yards. That’s cute. He hasn’t even rushed for 500 yards in a season yet without getting hurt so I’m going to take the under on that one.

Matt Forte – RB16 | ADP 37 | Projection: 41st Overall

Right behind Hyde on the projection chart is the former Bear, now Jet, Matt Forte. Statistically, Forte had the worst season of his career last year and he failed to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time since 2011. Forte is entering his 9th season in the league but it’s the first of his career away from Chicago. How Forte will be utilized in the offense is tough to project.

Those high on Forte believe he will be used the same way he was in Chicago. Critics, however, feel that Forte will not reach near the touches he’s received over the years and will likely split touches with longtime Jet Bilal Powell. The Jets love Powell, which is why he’s stuck around even through all the hardships that the Jets have had. Everyone knows that Forte is an excellent receiver coming out of the backfield, evidenced by his 102 receptions in 2014. However, Powell is at his best receiving out of the backfield and the likely candidate to take over 3rd down passing duties. All signs point to the Jets using a committee approach this season, which is a bad sign for Forte owners expecting him to be a high-end RB2.

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