How to Dominate Your 2016 Yahoo Fantasy Football Draft

 

Below, you will find my top 180 rankings written in Black. You will also see Yahoo’s rankings on the right side of each player’s name written in Purple. Use the chart below to dominate your Yahoo draft by determining which players are overvalued and undervalued based on Yahoo’s rankings. While drafting, avoid players in Orange or Red (unless they fall significantly during the draft) and select players in Blue and Green (as long as you are not reaching for them).

*Both sets of rankings are as of 8/26/2016.

Green: Undervalued on Yahoo by 12 or more spots
Blue: Undervalued on Yahoo by 6-11 spots
Black: Correctly valued on Yahoo within 5 spots
Orange: Overvalued on Yahoo by 6-11 spots
Red: Overvalued on Yahoo by 12 or more spots

Round 1  

1. Antonio Brown – 1
2. Julio Jones – 3
3. Odell Beckham Jr. – 2
4. DeAndre Hopkins – 7
5. Allen Robinson – 13
6. A.J. Green – 10 
7. Ezekiel Elliot – 6
8. Todd Gurley – 5
9. Rob Gronkowski – 8
10. David Johnson – 4
11. Adrian Peterson – 11
12. Le’Veon Bell – 15

Not a whole lot of overvalued or undervalued players in the first round. Most people cite touchdown regression as a reason for disliking Allen Robinson this season, but even if Robinson catches four fewer touchdowns in 2016, he’ll still finish with double-digit scores.

Round 2

13. Lamar Miller – 12
14. Dez Bryant – 9
15. Mark Ingram – 18
16. Jamaal Charles – 22
17. Brandon Marshall – 14
18. Keenan Allen – 17
19. Jordy Nelson – 24
20. Sammy Watkins – 27
21. Mike Evans – 19
22. Brandin Cooks – 16
23. Devonta Freeman – 25
24. Demaryius Thomas – 31

I’m a big Sammy Watkins fan in dynasty fantasy football, and I’m finding I like his value in redraft as well. Watkins had off-season foot surgery leading to the drop in his average draft position (ADP), but he should be healthy to start the year.

Round 3

25. Alshon Jeffery – 21
26. Eddie Lacy – 26
27. T.Y. Hilton – 29
28. Randall Cobb – 41
29. LeSean McCoy – 28
30. C.J. Anderson – 23
31. Doug Martin – 20
32. Donte Moncrief – 51
33. Amari Cooper – 30 
34. Jeremy Maclin – 48
35. Eric Decker – 36
36. Jordan Reed – 38

We see a trio of undervalued wide receivers in round three. I’m expecting a bounce-back season for Randall Cobb, and Donte Moncrief is one of the clearest breakout candidates this year.

Round 4

37. Thomas Rawls – 33
38. Jarvis Landry – 50
39. Latavius Murray – 49 
40. Matt Forte – 44
41. Greg Olsen – 42 
42. Carlos Hyde – 35
43. Julian Edelman – 52
44. Emmanuel Sanders – 80
45. Jeremy Hill – 53
46. Michael Floyd – 55
47. Kelvin Benjamin – 58
48. Jeremy Langford – 81

Round four is my favorite round for value. You can find a lot of value plays in round four, and some may even slip to round five.

Round 5

49. DeVante Parker – 60
50. Doug Baldwin – 40 
51. Golden Tate – 45 
52. Tyler Lockett – 64
53. Frank Gore – 71
54. Ryan Mathews – 54 
55. Jonathan Stewart – 57 
56. Aaron Rodgers – 34 
57. DeMarco Murray – 46 
58. John Brown – 67
59. Danny Woodhead – 90
60. Cam Newton – 32

Yahoo values Danny Woodhead as the 90th best player. I think they forgot he was the 11th best running back in standard scoring last season.

Round 6

61. Russell Wilson – 39
62. Jordan Matthews – 56
63. Duke Johnson Jr. – 77 
64. Marvin Jones – 75
65. DeAngelo Williams – 83
66. Larry Fitzgerald – 62 
67. DeSean Jackson – 85 
68. Kevin White – 93
69. Andrew Luck – 37
70. Matt Jones – 59 
71. Travis Kelce – 69
72. Giovani Bernard – 76

In round five and six, we start to see a lot of overvalued quarterbacks. You will see a pattern as you read further. Yahoo overvalues almost every quarterbacks this season. Waiting on quarterbacks is important in any draft, but is even more important in Yahoo drafts.

Round 7

73. Rashad Jennings – 88 
74. Melvin Gordon – 66
75. Chris Ivory – 73
76. Arian Foster – 63
77. Josh Gordon – 89 
78. Coby Fleener – 74 
79. Derrick Henry – 109 
80. Drew Brees – 43
81. Tom Brady – 84
82. T.J. Yeldon – 139
83. Delanie Walker – 70
84. Sterling Shepard – 87

Round seven is a big mix for value. This is a round where I’ll likely choose a player who dropped into round seven from an earlier round. This is also the round where you will see the only quarterback in the entire draft who is not overvalued.

Round 8

85. Corey Coleman – 115 
86. Michael Thomas – 129
87. Jay Ajayi – 118
88. Torrey Smith – 101
89. Michael Crabtree – 78
90. Allen Hurns – 65
91. Willie Snead – 108 
92. Tyler Eifert – 102
93. Martellus Bennett – 105
94. Stefon Diggs – 103 
95. Bilal Powell – 122
96. LeGarrette Blount – 126

In round eight, you see a lot of green, but I want to highlight Corey Coleman and Michael Thomas. You should notice this as you read further, but Yahoo undervalues rookies throughout their rankings.

Round 9

97. Justin Forsett – 120
98. Ameer Abdullah – 94
99. Charles Sims – 114 
100. Julius Thomas – 95 
101. Gary Barnidge – 100
102. Ben Roethlisberger – 47 
103. Carson Palmer – 61
104. Isaiah Crowell – 112
105. Devin Funchess – 128
106. Tevin Coleman – 117 
107. Christine Michael – 193
108. Theo Riddick – 162

I’m not a fan of many players in round nine, even though we see value. If Bilal Powell slips to round 9, he’d likely be my pick. Powell was given an almost identical contract to Matt Forte, leading me to believe the Jets value them similarly, which would mean Powell is undervalued by Yahoo.

Round 10

109. Eli Manning – 72 
110. James White – 200+
111. James Starks – 200+
112. Jerick McKinnon – 177
113. Phillip Dorsett – 130
114. Antonio Gates – 98 
115. Zach Ertz – 91 
116. Will Fuller – 192 
117. Travis Benjamin – 99
118. Zach Miller – 137
119. Chris Hogan – 149
120. Vincent Jackson – 123

Round 9-11 is where we really see the third pattern of Yahoo rankings. Yahoo undervalues handcuff running backs significantly.

Round 11

121. Devontae Booker – 200+
122. DeAndre Washington – 169
123. Kamar Aiken – 111
124. Laquon Treadwell – 146
125. Josh Doctson – 161
126. Tavon Austin – 86
127. Tyler Boyd – 200+
128. Bruce Ellington – 140 
129. Blake Bortles – 82 
130. Philip Rivers – 79
131. Tyrod Taylor – 96
132. Markus Wheaton – 124

Patterns continue in round eleven. Quarterbacks are overvalued. Rookies are undervalued. One of my favorite late-round receiver targets, Kamar Aiken is overvalued by Yahoo, making it harder to draft him.

Round 12

133. Rishard Matthews – 133
134. Spencer Ware – 186
135. Ted Ginn Jr. – 173
136. Sammie Coates – 119
137. Anquan Boldin – 152
138. Jordan Howard – 159 
139. Mike Wallace – 155 
140. Mohamed Sanu – 127 
141. Steve Smith Sr. – 144
142. Javorius Allen – 174 
143. Darren Sproles – 176
144. Keith Marshall – 200+

Round 12 has a few interesting running backs. Spencer Ware could see value again if Jamaal Charles can’t come back from his injury, and both Javorius Allen and Darren Sproles could see value as receiving backs.

Round 13

145. Mike Gillislee – 200+
146. Paul Perkins – 156
147. C.J. Prosise – 182
148. Wendell Smallwood – 190
149. Charcandrick West – 200+ 
150. Tajae Sharpe – 200+ 
151. Dorial Green-Beckham – 151 
152. Nelson Agholor – 178 
153. Pierre Garcon – 195
154. Kirk Cousins – 97 
155. Matthew Stafford – 110 
156. Kenneth Dixon – 157

Round 13 and 14 are usually the rounds where I start to look to take a quarterback. As you can see, Yahoo still overvalues quarterbacks (some by over 60 spots) making it difficult to wait. I think you have to stick with the strategy of taking a quarterback late and hope someone falls to you.

Round 14

157. Tony Romo – 92 
158. Derek Carr – 116
159. Ryan Tannehill – 141
160. Jason Witten – 131 
161. Andy Dalton – 104 
162. Shane Vereen – 181
163. Reggie Bush – 200+
164. Dion Lewis – 68 
165. Ryan Fitzpatrick – 142 
166. Matt Ryan – 121
167. Dwayne Allen – 113 
168. Kenyan Drake – 200+

In round fourteen, you continue to see overvalued quarterbacks.

Round 15

169. Eric Ebron – 136 
170. Austin Seferian-Jenkins – 200+ 
171. Jordan Cameron – 154 
172. Ladarius Green – 134 
173. Jimmy Graham – 125
174. Terrelle Pryor – 200+
175. Terrance Williams – 147
176. Leonte Carroo – 200+ 
177. Alfred Morris – 200+
178. Kendall Wright – 184 
179. Darren McFadden – 187
180. Chris Conley – 200+

Here you see Jimmy Graham overvalued. Many analysts have cited big upside as a reason to draft Jimmy Graham. I see more downside than upside with Graham, so I won’t own him in any leagues.

Final Analysis

Three patterns stood out while analyzing Yahoo’s pre-draft rankings. Quarterbacks are overvalued to an extreme degree while rookies and backup running backs are severely undervalued. If you understand these patterns and can avoid the overvalued players in Orange or Red and select the undervalued players in Blue and Green you will give yourself and advantage and have a great shot to win your league this season!

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