Big Ten Preview: West Division

Predicting who will win the Big Ten east division was difficult due to Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State all being outstanding teams with a shot at the playoffs. Predicting the East is difficult due to the logjam of middle of the road teams.

West (In order of finish)

Nebraska: I do not know any other school in the country who found a way to lose close games then Nebraska last year. BYU by five, Miami by three, Illinois by one, Wisconsin by two, Northwestern by two. Win two of those games and your 8-5 and in second place in the West. I’m counting on Nebraska to win some of those games this year (and Iowa to lose some of the close games they won last year). Senior Quarterback Tommy Armstrong leads a veteran group of skill players for the Cornhuskers. Last season Nebraska finished 34th in total offense and should improve in that department with another year in offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf scheme. Good News, bad news defensively for the Cornhuskers. Good news you finished 9th overall in rush defense, play in the Big Ten (known for running the football), and only have to replace four starters (two along the defensive line and two in the secondary). Bad news, sacks were few and far between last season the entire defensive line had twenty sacks and the entire team had twenty four. This placed Nebraska 78th in the country at generating sacks; Hawaii, Old Dominion and Kansas all had more sacks. Nebraska is favored in eight games this season, and has two toss up games with Oregon, Wisconsin and Iowa. Beat the teams you are supposed to beat and win at least one toss up game and your 9-3 with a shot at the Big Ten title game.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin is a solid program that competes in Big Ten, makes Rose Bowl appearances and produces NFL players, but seems to lose their coach after a year or two. Since 2012 the Badgers have had three different head coaches. When a head coach leaves it is typically a move up; former Wisconsin coaches have left for lateral moves or a step down. Bret Bielema won three Big Ten championships in six years and left for Arkansas. Gary Anderson went 19-7 then left for Oregon State. How long will Paul Chryst be at Wisconsin? Offensively the Badgers return three capable backs. Dare Ogunbowale had over 800 yards rushing and Taiwan Deal had over 500 last season. In addition Corey Clement comes back from injury. Four returning linemen will help improve a rushing offense that finished 95th in the country. Defensively the Badgers return nearly everyone from a unit that ranked second overall in total defense last season. Replacing defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will be the biggest issue for Wisconsin this season. If Wisconsin can survive road games against Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa and a home game with Ohio State the Badgers have a shot at representing the West.

Iowa: Six games last season for the Hawkeyes were decided by eight or less points. Iowa won five of them. That means your team is really good in close games or lucky. I’m taking the latter; Iowa will still be good but not 12-2 good. Iowa has some pieces returning in quarterback CJ Beathard, running backs Leshun Daniels and Akrum Wadley and three returning offensive linemen. The Hawkeyes defense should carry this team. Last season Iowa finished 22nd in total defense and return three defensive linemen, two linebackers and three secondary pieces. The schedule sets up nicely with home games against Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska.

Minnesota: It seems every team in the West (except Northwestern) is built the same way. Run a pro-style, conservative offense, play bend but don’t break defense and do not ask too much out of your quarterback. I could write the same team preview for nearly every team, change the names and call it a day (I won’t though). Quarterback Mitch Leidner returns as the starting quarterback which is interesting because at 6’4 230 he could emulate Tim Tebow and run quarterback power, switch to tight-end like Blake Bell or eat himself to 300 pounds and be Jared Lorenzon. With three massive offensive linemen coming back (Right Tackle 6’9 325, Right Guard 6’5 330, Center 6’4 305) and two tailbacks that gained over 600 yards last season Minnesota will run the ball until the defense breaks. The Golden Gophers return the majority of a defense that finished 24th overall in total defense and 11th against the pass. Minnesota is favored in nine games this year including toss up games with Iowa, Maryland and Illinois.

Northwestern: Is their any coach in the country that does more with less then Pat Fitzgerald? handicapped by strict academic standards and terrible recruiting grounds (Where is Evanston, Illinois?) Fitzgerald continuously puts a good product on the field. In ten seasons at Northwestern Fitzgerald has only had four losing seasons. Offensively the Wildcats were pretty conservative with a freshmen quarterback and an offensive line ravaged by injuries running the ball on first, second, and third down. This season should still be run-heavy but not quite as much with quarterback Clayton Thorson having to show some signs of improvement (when your passing offense is 120th….only one way to go). Northwestern’s defense is again going to be one of the countries best; last season Northwestern finished 13th overall in total defense and with seven starters coming back it should again be a strong unit. The schedule is pretty difficult with games against Duke, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State and Wisconsin all in a row. Those two months are as difficult as they come.

Illinois: The hiring of Lovie Smith for Illinois was a home run. Sure, Smith is untested at the collegiate level, but the name recognition of having a former NFL head coach that coached in the Super Bowl is an improvement for recruiting and the universities brand name. Smith’s scheme fits into the Big Ten as well (conservative pro-style offense and bend but don’t break defense). Offensively The Fighting Illini feature returning starters at Quarterback, Running back, Wide Receiver and three starters off the offensive line. Former Oklahoma State quarterback Wes Lunt leads the offense that finished a respectable 47th in the country in passing last season. Last season Illinois finished 30th overall in total defense and 15th against the pass; with Smith’s influence those numbers will improve with three starters coming back from the defensive line, and two linebackers returning. The secondary on the other hand will have to replace three starters. Smith’s cover two scheme is fairly simple and straight forward allowing players to adapt quickly to the scheme. As with any first year head coach it is not about wins and losses it is more about establishing a culture change from the previous regime. Illinois might win three or four games this season, but in the future expect those numbers to change.

Purdue: From 1997-2008 Purdue fielded solid, competitive football teams every year; only having one losing season during that time frame. After Joe Tiller left the football program fell flat. Since 2009 the Boilermakers have only had one winning season (7-6 in 2011). Head Coach Darrell Hazell has won six games in three years; part of the problem is that under Tiller Purdue ran a spread offense which at the time was an undervalued offense that acted as a equalizer to less talented teams. Coming up through the coaching ranks Hazell learned from Jim Tressel while coaching six years at Ohio State; under Tressel Ohio State ran a very conservative offense, valuing ball control, winning field position and playing defense. This style of play works very well if you have more talent then the opposing team. This is what Nick Saban does at Alabama and it work fairly well for him. At Purdue your not going to recruit on the national level like Ohio State and Alabama, so why not do something different. Bring back the run and shoot or go the other direction and run the option; just don’t run your program like your Ohio State when your Purdue.      

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