Rookie QB Expectations and Values

Every year in fantasy football I see people getting so excited for rookies. I understand the appeal. You want to be able to grab that guy early and be the one that gets to say I knew it all along how great that guy was going to be. I play in a lot of dynasty league so identifying future stars is an important skill to have. Dynasty aside what puzzles me the most is when rookies get selected in redraft leagues. Don’t get me wrong rookies can be productive in their first years, but chances are most will not. In redraft leagues, bench space is usually pretty small and to waste a pick on a guy that might be good is too risky for me. I want guys that I know will be productive. So let’s take a look at some rookie QB’s and let’s see what kind of value these guys offer in redraft as well as dynasty leagues.

Jared Goff – Redraft 35 Dynasty 22 – The Rams traded up to get Goff which was not a bad idea, they needed a QB pretty bad. Unfortunately for the Rams, he has not been everything they had hoped for. He has struggled in the preseason, which has led the Rams to likely naming Case Keenum their week 1 starter. Good news for Goff though is that the chances of Keenum holding onto the job all year is not a good one, bad news for him the Rams might go with Sean Mannion instead of him. His preseason could not have gone much worse for a number 1 overall pick. So where does that leave us come draft time? In redraft leagues, I am not touching Goff at all. Even if he eventually starts at QB this season, I don’t see him doing well enough for me to start him over most of the current starters in the NFL. At this point, I am not even sure I would want him in dynasty formats. The QB position is so deep missing out on him won’t hurt you at all.

Carson Wentz – Redraft 42 Dynasty 24 – Like the Rams, the Eagles moved up in the draft to get Carson Wentz. This one was a little strange, though because the Eagles have a capable QB in Sam Bradford. While Bradford did not do great last year, it’s hard to tell if it was a product of the system or was it Bradford himself. Either way, I think the Eagles could have drafted a QB later and groom him, while they give Bradford one last shot to prove he can still be a good QB in this league. From day 1 the Eagles have said they are not rushing Wentz, which was a good thing because like Goff I am not sure he will be ready this year. Also like Goff, in redraft leagues, I am not touching Wentz. Unless things get colossal bad in Philly I don’t see him starting at all this season. I am not even sure I would rush to draft him in dynasty unless you were desperate to get younger at QB and could afford to let him sit all year. I have a hard time drafting guys that have a very limited potential to play in the current season and Wentz is one of those guys.

Paxton Lynch – Redraft 36 Dynasty 25 – Out of the three QB’s taken in round 1 in last year’s draft, Lynch has the best shot at seeing playing time this season and has the best chances of succeeding considering where he landed. The Broncos named Trevor Siemian as their starter. This moved surprised me because I thought he was the worst of the three QB’s competing for the job. Maybe they wanted someone that would falter a few games in giving them justification for getting Lynch a few more weeks to get ready, who knows? Regardless I like Lynch mostly because he has a ton of weapons around him, and a strong D. I am still staying away from rookie QB’s in redraft leagues there are just too many quality starters to worry about Lynch. In dynasty though I would be targeting Lynch. I think he starts before the year is over and while his numbers may not be great this year it will give him a leg up going into next season where he could become fantasy relevant.

Christian Hackenberg – Redraft 60 Dynasty 39 – Many people thought that this pick was meant to scare Ryan Fitzpatrick into coming back for a cheaper price. Whether it was or not the pick was a reach for the Jets, but not a waste. Fitz is not young, Geno Smith may never get his shot again in New York and after that is unproven Bryce Petty. They added depth to a position with a guy that can take a few years if need be to get ready. Given how far out he is from having a possibility of starting I would not even consider him in redraft or dynasty formats at this time.

Cody Kessler – Redraft 56 Dynasty 46 – Like the Jets, the Browns needed to add depth at the position, but did not need someone to come in and start this season. Another guy unlikely to see a start anytime soon, so just like Hackenberg no need to consider him in redraft or dynasty at this time.

Dak Prescott – Redraft 27 Dynasty 23 – This is actually a tough one, which would be much easier if Tony Romo would just go away. Seriously Romo is going to end up hurting the team not helping them at this point. Every time he gets hit he breaks something. Dak looked great in the preseason and yeah I know preseason, but he did spend a lot of time in those games playing with the number 1’s. Like Lynch, Dak is in a great spot. The Cowboys have plenty of offensive weapons and a strong D, which is always good to have when you have a young QB. What will hurt Dak is if Romo ends up being able to come back around week 6 or so and they just give him his job back. The longer the Romo situation lingers, the more complicated things get in Dak’s value. As of now in redraft leagues, I am not jumping on him at all, but if you have a stud QB and want to grab Dak just to see what happens, that is not so bad. In dynasty formats I want him. Even if Romo comes back this season and finishes it, it won’t be long before Dak gets the job for good, and the Boys have some talent on that team.

I know other QB’s got drafted, but in all honesty, these guys were the story lines this offseason, and the guys most likely to get drafted in some format.

Michael Kelley is a member of the Going For 2 team. You can check out his website Dynasty League Problems for more writings or follow him on Twitter @mikekelleydlp.
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