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Fantasy Baseball 2017 Profile: Brad Miller

After hitting 21 home runs over 805 at-bats with the Seattle Mariners during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, a trade to the Tampa Bay Rays turned Brad Miller into a power hitter. Over a career-high 152 games and 548 at-bats, Miller hit 30 home runs and drove in 81 while playing 105 games at shortstop and 39 games at first base.

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Miller is slated to move to second base, where he has 13 career starts, for the Rays this season. Added multi-position eligibility is good news, but the more pressing matter is if Miller has a chance to repeat his 2016 power production. So let’s take a closer look.

Miller’s power spike last season was driven mostly by one thing. His home run/fly ball rate essentially doubled compared to 2015 (10.3 percent), to 20.4 percent. Slight increases in overall fly ball rate (36.8 percent; 31.4 percent in 2015) and percentage of hard contact (35.1 percent; 30.3 percent in 2015) helped, but good fortune fostered Miller’s power breakout.

Miller also had a significant platoon and home/road splits in 2016. 27 of his 30 home runs came off right-handed pitchers, with 22 dingers at home. But that platoon split fits with his career as a whole, with 54 of 59 career home runs against righties, so any concern specifically attached to it can be mostly set aside.

Miller is absolutely not a 30-home run hitter, so a repeat can’t be expected in 2017. But he can still be a useful power option as a middle infielder, with a handful of stolen bases mixed in, and eventual three-position eligibility boosts Miller’s fantasy value a bit.

Brad Miller 2017 Fantasy Baseball Projection: .245, 21 home runs, 72 RBI, 70 runs scored, 6 stolen bases

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