NASCAR DFS DraftKings Picks: Auto Club Speedway 3/26/2017

The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup heads to Fontana, CA for the Auto Club 400 to conclude NASCAR’s westward swing.    In last week’s race at Phoenix, Ryan Newman won the race in the final two laps with a brilliant pit strategy to stay on the track instead of pitting to get new tires.   The strategy worked perfectly as Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch did not have enough time to catch Newman even with their fresher tires.

However, the brilliant Newman pit strategy won’t work this week at the Auto Club International Speedway as the racetrack has its original asphalt from 1996.  The track is notoriously tough on tires like Atlanta Motor Speedway.    Cars with fresher tires will catch opponents with older tires on this fast track.

The Auto Club International Speedway is a two-mile and D-shaped oval track.  It is a wide and fast track, with a lot of passing and where cars can go 5 wide.  As mentioned earlier, it has an old surface and is tough on tires, so tire and pit strategy is critical for this race track like at Atlanta.

Top 4 Drivers for the Auto Club 400

Kyle Larson($9,100):   Larson currently has the Buffalo Bill curse, as he has finished 2nd in the past three races.    He is the hot driver with momentum, and he just needs to figure out a way to finish.  He was close last week but got tangled up with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. with two laps to go, losing speed and missing the chance to pass Newman for the win.   Larson has had fast cars this year, and this week is no different having the fastest car in the first practice, as well as winning the pole position.  He is a must start for Cash games as he will surely rack up the Laps Lead points being out front, with a fast vehicle, in the clean air.

Kyle Busch($10,500):   Busch has had a tough week trying to recover from his on-track incident with Joey Logano and subsequent pit road brawl.    With 6 laps to go last week, Kyle Busch was comfortably leading the race and looked primed to win it.   Ironically, Joey Logano screwed up Busch again, by crashing into the wall and bringing out the caution.   In the final restart, Busch could not return to the front and finished 3rd.    During practice and qualifying thus far, Busch has a Top 10 performing car.   He is edgy and hungry and motivated to redeem himself after missing out on the win last week.   Start him in all Cash games.    Busch has won at the Auto Club Speedway three times in his career.

Jimmie Johnson($9,800):    The #48 team and Jimmie Johnson have been in a slump thus far even though he pulled together a Top 10 finish last week.   Normally, I would fade this situation.  However, if you believe in the hometown narrative, this could be the week that California-raised Johnson breaks through at his hometown racetrack.   Also, Johnson has a stellar performance history at this track with 6 wins, 13 Top 5’s, and 16 Top 10’s.   In practice, Johnson dinged up his car and had to resort to the backup car, which automatically puts him in the back at the field for qualifying.  This gives him high Place Differential upside as he could jump into the Top 5 by the end of the race.

Chase Elliott($9,600):   Like Kyle Larson, Elliott has had consistently fast cars this year and has delivered solid performances winning Stage 2 at Phoenix last week before eventually fading back to 12th.    In his only race last year at this track, he qualified 8th and finished 6th.   In this fast, wide track where passing occurs frequently, I think Elliott could easily nail a Top 5 finish.   Elliott starts 13th, giving him some room to get some Place Differential points.

“Caution:  Use at Your Own Risk” Pick

Brad Keselowski($10,000):     Keselowski won this race in 2015, passing Kurt Busch on the final lap with fresher tires for a dramatic win.  His #2 Ford Fusion has run extremely well this year, as Keselowski has an average running position of 3.5, tops among drivers in the past 3 races.  However, on Wednesday, NASCAR levied some fines and penalties for post-race infractions to the Keselowski Penske Racing team, one of which is the suspension of his crew chief Paul Wolfe for the next 3 races.    The driver/crew chief relationship is crucial for success in every race, and with the suspension being levied mid-week, the #2 team has had a short week to prepare for the Auto Club 400 with the interim crew chief.   Keselowski is a great a DFS pick at this track but proceed with caution with the suspension of his crew chief.

Value Pick

Denny Hamlin($8,500):   Hamlin finished 2nd in speed in the first practice and qualified 2nd for the race.   This will be the 5th time that Hamlin has started in the front row at the Auto Club speedway. In 15 races at this track, he has two Top 5’s, and five Top 10’s.    He does not give you a Place Differential edge by starting 2nd, but he could very well pass Kyle Larson to earn some Laps Lead points.  At $8,500, Hamlin has great value for this race.

Sleeper Pick

Matt Kenseth($8,900):   Kenseth crashed his car last week with a blown tire and finished 37th.  He seems to be the forgotten man this year, as Kyle Busch has been stealing the headlines in the Joe Gibbs Racing garage. Kenseth has won 3 times at this track and will be under-owned for GPPs.

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