2017 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Hunter Henry

TE Hunter Henry | Los Angeles Chargers | 2nd Year

2016 Statistics: 36 receptions, 478 yards, 8 TDs

It’s rare for a team to have two top-20 fantasy tight ends (ESPN standard scoring) in a season, but the San Diego (now Los Angeles) Chargers pulled it off in 2016. Antonio Gates was no surprise, even in a relatively down year (53 catches, 548 yards, seven touchdowns), but rookie Hunter Henry made the most of his opportunities (36 receptions for 478 yards, eight touchdowns).

ESPN Chargers’ writer Eric Williams expects Henry to be the team’s main tight end this season, with Gates falling into a more narrow goal line and third down role. A changing of the guard is surely coming, but is Henry headed for a fantasy breakout in his second season?

The first thing to note from Henry’s rookie season is his excellent efficiency. He had just 54 targets, with a 67 percent catch rate that bested Gates’ catch rate (53 catches-92 targets) by close to 10 percent. With a 3.0 yard advantage in yards per catch (13.3, to 10.3) and shade more than that advantage in yards per target (9.0 to 5.9), there’s a strong case for Henry to be far more involved this coming season.

Gates has fended off a steep decline fantasy-wise by catching touchdowns, with at least seven scores in four of the last six seasons. But he only had five more red zone targets than Henry did last season (22 to 17), and Henry had one more touchdown.

Wide receiver Keenan Allen (torn ACL) is on track to be ready for Week 1, and the Chargers used their first-round pick on wide receiver Mike Williams. So there’s some competition for targets compared to 2016, but there seems to be room for Gates and Henry in the San Diego passing attack.

Gates missed two games last season (Week 3 and Week 4), and Henry totaled nine receptions (on 12 targets) for 133 yards and a touchdown. That’s too small a sample to take a lot from, but just a simple shift toward a more equal split of the same number of tight end targets for the entire season (146 in 2016) lends itself to some upside for Henry.

Early ADP date has Henry being drafted much earlier than Gates. Fantasy Pros’ three-source compilation has Henry at TE11 (pick No. 11 overall) and Gates as TE26 (pick No. 195 overall). A narrower look at Fantasy Football Calculator has Henry at TE9 (pick 7.12 in 12-team standard leagues) and Gates going undrafted.

Henry being drafted as a weekly starting tight end is a bit aggressive for me, as long as Gates is healthy and siphoning some opportunities each game. But the odds of a nice breakout season for Henry are not incredibly long either.

2017 Projection:

56 receptions, 705 yards,  7 TDs

Breakout Percentage: 50%

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.