2017 Fantasy Football Preview: Buffalo Bills

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2016 Fantasy Recap

In 2016, the Buffalo Bills capped off another disappointing season for their fans. The Bills finished their season at 7-9, failing to miss the playoffs for a 17th straight season, the longest playoff drought in the NFL. What is even more disappointing is that it was another year in which Buffalo started off the season with a hot streak, only to fizzle in the second half of the season. Buffalo lost their first two games of 2016 but responded with four straight victories after firing their offensive coordinator.

One of those four wins included a shutout victory at New England. The winning streak had some believing that Buffalo was possibly the second best team in the AFC, and at minimum, a serious playoff contender. Reality set in quickly, however, and before the season was fully complete, Buffalo decided to fire their head coach Rex Ryan. The firings did not stop there as Buffalo let go of their GM Doug Whaley one day after the NFL Draft was complete.

Now, Buffalo is ready to go with a new head coach, Sean McDermott, and general manager, Brandon Beane. It’s hard to predict how the Bills will fare in 2017, but expectations are not high. For fantasy football purposes, there could be a boost for some offensive weapons, but LeSean McCoy remains the player to own. In fact, with a new regime and added help in the backfield, McCoy could be even better in 2017.

Key Additions and Losses

Additions:

• Micah Hyde – S
• Patrick DiMarco – FB
• Tre’Davious White – CB (Draft)
• Zay Jones – WR (Draft)

Losses:

• Mike Gillislee – RB
• Stephon Gilmore – CB
• Robert Woods – WR
• Zach Brown – LB

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Quarterback Fantasy Outlook

Buffalo was able to restructure the contract of Tyrod Taylor this offseason much to the surprise of many. The Bills still want to see more consistency from the seven-year veteran out of Virginia Tech, but they believe he can provide that under a new management system. As for a fantasy outlook, Taylor continues to be an under-the-radar performer. The primary reason is because of the inconsistency. Unlike say a Blake Bortles, who can pad the stats when the game is out of reach when Taylor is struggling it shows in his stats.

Taylor is a considerable backup to own, however, and a viable option for daily formats in favorable matchups. He has had his bad games for sure, but Taylor is very capable of putting up QB1 numbers on any given Sunday. That is because Taylor does most of his damage with his legs. Taylor has rushed for over 500 yards in each of the last two seasons, and 10 touchdowns on the ground during that span. His ability to run makes up for the lack of yardage through the air.

Grade: B

Running Back Fantasy Outlook

Mike Gillislee is now in New England, but that shouldn’t slow down the rushing attack of Buffalo in the least. In fact, it’s likely to improve in 2017. The Bills added one of the best blocking fullbacks in the league this offseason in Patrick DiMarco. Buffalo also added Mike Tolbert in the backfield, but it’s safe to assume that McCoy will receive workhorse duties the majority of the season. In addition to being one of the premier running backs in the league, McCoy continues to be highly involved in the passing game. Last season, he finished with 50 receptions for 356 yards and a touchdown. McCoy doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon and is expected to again finish as one of the top backs in fantasy football.

Grade: A

Wide Receiver Fantasy Outlook

The wide receiving corps in Buffalo appears very thin on the surface. Buffalo drafted Zay Jones in the second round of the draft, who has the potential to breakout this season or next. Opposite of Jones will be Sammy Watkins, who has been a disappointment up to this point. Watkins missed half the season in 2016 because of a nagging foot injury. Injuries have been a burden on Watkins career since he entered the league and played a large part in Buffalo’s reasoning to not pick up his fifth-year option. The good news for fantasy players that want to take a chance on Watkins is that this puts him in a contract year, and we all know what that means for a player’s production.

The Bills don’t have much depth behind Jones and Watkins. Robert Woods, Buffalo’s most productive WR last year, signed a new deal with the Los Angeles Rams this offseason. They replaced him by signing Andre Holmes and Corey Brown, but neither player is worth a fantasy roster in any format. Jones or Watkins are the only receivers worth taking a chance on, but if they don’t show potential early in the season, Buffalo’s receivers may be faded altogether.

Grade: C

Tight End Fantasy Outlook

The only viable option at tight end for Buffalo is Charles Clay. Unfortunately, the Bills are highly concerned about Clay’s apparent knee issues. Even without the knee problems, Clay has not produced at a high enough level to be considered a starting fantasy tight end week-to-week. At best, he is a mediocre bench player that can fill in on another player’s bye week. Even then I would not feel comfortable, but options are always thin at tight end. Should Clay have to miss any time, Nick O’Leary would be next to step up. O’Leary has just 10 receptions in two seasons, however, and is best suited as a blocker. Unless the Bills sign a veteran free agent, their tight ends can easily be avoided.

Grade: C-

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Defensive Fantasy Outlook

The Bills defense lost, arguably, their best player from 2016 to free agency. Stephon Gilmore signed with the Patriots in the offseason, but to Buffalo’s credit, they quickly acted to find suitable reinforcements. Shortly after Gilmore was gone, Buffalo signed Micah Hyde to be their starting strong safety. In April, they used their first round pick to select CB Tre’Davious White from LSU to be Gilmore’s replacement. They continued to try and upgrade the defense by selecting a pair of linebackers in the late rounds.

In addition to losing Gilmore, Buffalo also lost their leading tackler from a year ago, Zach Brown. Brown recorded 149 tackles last year, but Buffalo did not believe it was enough to warrant him a contract extension, and Brown would eventually sign on with Washington. Part of the reason Buffalo was willing to part ways with Brown is the return of sophomore Reggie Ragland. Ragland missed the entire 2016 season after tearing his ACL back in August. Ragland has been cleared to play and is now practicing with the team. If he can remain healthy, Buffalo will expect big things from the former Crimson Tide player. Buffalo’s 2016 first round selection, Shaq Lawson, dealt with a should injury his rookie season that slowed him down.

Both players are now healthy and will look to improve Sean McDermott‘s inherited defense. Buffalo’s defense may not be up there with Seattle or Kansas City in terms of fantasy production, but they do have the personnel to rack up enough sacks and turnovers to be worth starting week in, week out. If they can decrease their opponents points per game, they have the ceiling to be a top 5 fantasy defense.

Grade: B

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