DFS Week 1 Top Stacks Report – Fanduel Football 9/10/17
Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL season! There’s no better fantasy sport than football, and I’m excited to get back into it.
The Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on Fanduel. Unless there’s a major price discrepancy, I would recommend these plays on Draftkings, as well.
Let’s dive into Week 1…
Todd Gurley ($7,300) and Rams Defense ($4,600)
Todd Gurley is coming off a horrendous sophomore season in the NFL after a very promising rookie campaign. The Rams were a disaster last year with Jeff Fisher and awful quarterback play. I’m not willing to completely throw away his 3.2 yards per carry 2016 season, but I think he’s too talented to not bounce back this year. New head coach, Sean McVay, has been deemed a “talent maximizer” by the football community, so let’s see how he uses the best player on his offense. Looking at Week 1, the Rams are currently a 4 point home favorite against the Colts led by Scott Tolzien. The Colts were dead last in run defense in the NFL last season, per Football Outsider’s efficiency metric DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). There haven’t been any significant improvements, so expect to see them near the bottom of the league again in 2017. Basically, if Gurley can’t hit value against this defense, he won’t be in this article ever again. On the other side of the ball, we have no Andrew Luck. This means we get Scott “career 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions” Tolzien! I imagine that’s what his friends call him. It would be much better for fantasy if Aaron Donald plays in this game, but I’m willing to play the Rams defense regardless. This will definitely be a chalky stack, but I’m more than comfortable using it in cash games, as well as GPPs.
Carson Wentz ($7,100), Zach Ertz ($5,900), and Terrelle Pryor ($6,200)
This is another stack I like for cash games, with the high expected ownership on these players. This Eagles Redskins game is currently a 1 point spread with a 47.5 total. Carson Wentz is priced as the QB17 on Fanduel, which I believe will give us some viable cheap cash QB weeks. He does not have much of a ceiling, reaching 20 FD points only once last season, but he has a solid point per dollar floor. The Eagles are going into the season with Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked O-line and a mediocre at best running game. Clearly, the most talented RB on the roster is Darren Sproles, a pass catching back that only benefits Wentz’s fantasy production. The Redskins are still going to be a below average defense that we should be targeting (outside of Josh Norman). Norman is expected to shadow Alshon Jeffery on Sunday, which could lead to more targets elsewhere. This leads us to Zach Ertz, who was busy winning people fantasy championships last December. Accumulating 54 targets over the last 5 weeks of the season, the Wentz-Ertz connection reached new heights. This included a 13 target, 10 reception, 112-yard performance against the Redskins in Week 14. I think Ertz will be Wentz’s go-to pass catcher this season, and that starts against a Redskins team that was 6th last year in fantasy points allowed to TEs. I think an underutilized part of stacking is using a pass catcher on the opposing team. There must have been an error in the Fanduel pricing algorithm this week; I don’t have another explanation for the $6,200 price for Terrelle Pryor. To compare, he’s the WR13 on Draftkings and the WR29 on Fanduel. Unless he was going up against an elite shadow cornerback, he’s basically a plug-and-play in any format. He should see a lot of Jalen Mills, who’s not good at all.
Marcus Mariota ($7,800), Rishard Matthews ($6,100), and Michael Crabtree ($6,900)
Currently the second highest total on the board at 50.5, the Titans and Raiders are sure to be popular plays this week. One of the best ways to be contrarian in GPPs is to find low owned plays in high total games. Marcus Mariota is going up against a bad pass defense, 25th in pass DVOA and 31st in explosive pass rate (per Sharp Football Stats) last season. This should not be too far off expectations for 2017, as the Raiders will once again be reliant on the offense to score in bunches. If the Raiders can keep up, this game has major shootout potential. The only Titans pass catcher expected over 5% ownership is Delanie Walker. While the Raiders are a good matchup for tight ends, the Titans are moving away from their 33-year-old tight end. Eric Decker is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL and will be cutting into Walker’s most fantasy relevant role. I’m going to be fading Walker and pairing MariGOATa with his favorite target last season, Rishard Matthews. Matthews scored double digit Fanduel points in 8 of the last 9 games to end 2016, with the one dud against Denver. While Decker and Corey Davis were both dealing with injuries for a large portion of the preseason, I’m looking for the Mariota-Matthews duo to continue where they left off. The Raiders side of the game is much simpler since about 50% of the team targets go to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. I personally prefer Crabtree for the $700 discount off Cooper on Fanduel, with touchdowns being more important in .5 PPR scoring.
Stack of The Week
Russell Wilson ($8,000), Doug Baldwin ($7,500), Paul Richardson ($5,200), and Randall Cobb ($5,900)
Expect to see a lot of Seahawks stacks in this article this season. I have pieces of this pass offense on all of my season-long fantasy and best ball teams. This game has the highest total of the week at 51, showcasing two high powered passing offenses. Last year in this game, Russell Wilson threw 5 interceptions against the 23rd ranked pass defense in DVOA last season; that is not good (this is my expert opinion). Wilson was dealing with injuries throughout the entire season, and it showed at times. The offensive line is still a disaster, ranked last by Pro Football Focus for the 2017 season, but Wilson is completely healthy, on a Tom Brady-like diet, and apparently in the best shape of his life. Wilson’s health and mobility should help neutralize the O-line a bit. Thomas Rawls is questionable to play, which hurts an already ineffective run game. This should result in the Seahawks relying on short chain-moving passes; this bodes well for Doug Baldwin, who will be moved all over the field to exploit this Packers secondary and pick up chunk yardage. The Packers defense was 28th in the NFL in average explosive pass rate (per Sharp Football Analysis) and does not appear to be much better this year. This brings me to one of my favorite GPP fliers: Paul Richardson. Richardson is now a starter for the Seahawks and must have impressed in training camp because they shipped Jermaine Kearse out of town. The highest aDOT (average depth of target) on the Seahawks in 
2016 was Richardson’s 12.6 yards, so I expect him to be the go-to deep threat. I want to be ahead of the public on Richardson, as he’s expected to be under 5% owned. On the other side of this game, we have options for Aaron Rodgers. The addition of Sheldon Richardson is going to make the Seahawks front seven a scary sight for opposing quarterbacks. Just like with the Seahawks, I think the Packers will have a difficult time running the football. According to Football Outsiders’ metrics, the Seahawks were the 11th best defense in covering passes out wide, but only the 23rd ranked covering in the slot. Most of the success we’ve seen against the Seahawks secondary has come from the slot. My favorite play on the Packers to go with a Seahawks stack is Randall Cobb. Coming off a playoff run in which he was an integral part of the offense, Cobb is healthy and ready to go. For $900 and $1,800 less than Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson, respectively, give me Cobb with under 5% ownership all day.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter.
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