DraftKings NBA Value Plays and Optimized Lineup (10/23/17)

Welcome back! Hope you guys had a successful DFS weekend with some great NBA matchups. Let’s get into the value plays on Draftkings for this 8 game Monday slate.

Bargain Star

Andre Drummond – $7,800

In the past two matchups, Drummond has lost minutes to Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris as the length and floor stretching ability of Porzingis and the guard-centric Wizards called for a different defensive style. But tonight against the 76ers, they matchup against Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor, a formidable frontcourt presence geared towards strength and intensity. This calls for Drummond’s low-post abilities and he should be in a great position to return value as Philly has allowed the 9th most rebounds and given up the 4th most blocks in the NBA thus far this season. If the 76ers style of offense continues, I can see Drummond taking over this game and providing some much-needed salary relief for DFS lineups.

Mid-Salary Steals

Dejounte Murray – $5,100 

Murray has filled in for the Spurs as the replacement starting point guard in the absence of veteran Tony Parker who is out with injury until likely mid December. Murray showcased his talent against the Bulls, dropping a triple-double like stat line of 8 points, 6 assists and 10 rebounds. His length for a point guard is astounding and in a matchup with a high-volume guard pair in Toronto with no Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs will need Murray’s length on the defensive end to plug up space in the open court. I don’t expect as many rebounds this time around as Toronto is middle of the pack in defending rebounds to the guard positions with Valanciunas reeling in all the boards. However at his price, Murray should easily provide a basis at the guard spot to allow for some great DFS plays at other positions.

Otto Porter – $5,900

Otto Porter is a true volume shooter on a team with two other volume shooters in Beal and Wall. As with any shooter, you have to wait for a matchup that lends to a higher field-goal percentage for the odds of the player returning the right value for his price. Porter needs 30 points tonight to reach 5x value, and I think he has the best shot so far this season against a Nuggets squad who has given up the fifth highest FG% to opposing small forwards so far this season. The Nuggets run their team through the center position, so the weak perimeter defense from Wilson Chandler and Gary Harris should allow for some good shot opportunities for Porter. If he can take advantage, Porter will be an absolute steal at $5,900.

Long-Shot Plays of the Night

P.J. Tucker – $3,700

Tucker played an integral part in the Rockets opening night win against the Warriors, logging 29 minutes and dropping 20 points and 6 rebounds. The other two matchups for the Rockets featured not as formidable of opponents in the Kings and the Mavericks, so Tucker saw his overall output fall when he was not needed to produce. Tonight, the Grizzlies are the perfect calling card for a player like Tucker. Known for his defensive skills, the Rockets will need his presence against a scrappy Grizzlies squad who has relied on their forwards to shoulder the scoring load outside of Marc Gasol. Tucker will likely see 30 minutes tonight and has an excellent chance at great rebounding numbers and scoring opportunities. You wont find another player at $3,700 that has the potential to exceed 5x value like Tucker. Grab him if you need a great bargain lottery ticket.

Dwayne Bacon – $3,400

This is more of a situational call than an big-game. Bacon should start for the Hornets tonight against the Bucks at the small forward in place of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Between Jeremy Lamb and Bacon, the two have seen an uptick in stat performance with MKG’s absence and I expect that to continue tonight as Bacon will see defense from a less-than-average Khris Middleton. He should have some rebounding value and could see 3-5 scores in this matchup, which could put him at his 5x value mark tonight easily. This pick is a bit riskier however, because I expect Monk and Lamb to see a lot more run because the Hornets will likely have some catching up to do with Giannis tearing it up to start the season. But at $3,400 dollars, it’s hard to steer you away from a cheap option like Bacon.

Optimized Lineup

George Hill – PG
Klay Thompson – SG
Otto Porter – SF
Skal Labissiere – PF
Andre Drummond – C
Dejounte Murray – G
P.J Tucker – F
Giannis Antetokounmpo – UTIL

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