2015 Fantasy Football ADP Over/Under

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This is an ADP piece, we will be focusing in on some ADP’s, if we like them, we will apply the over tag. If we don’t believe they can live up to their ADP we will apply an under tag.

(x) = Current ADP

RB Matt Forte, Bears (8) UNDER

In previous years the idea of getting Matt forte 8th overall would be considered a steal, this is a new year. Along with a new year, comes a new coach, a new philosophy and a new system.
John Fox is notorious for using a committee approach when it comes to his running game. We have gotten used to seeing Matt Forte handle 70 plus percent of bears running plays, that has potential to change this year.
If we look over his stay in Denver, we will see only once has Fox allowed a back to handle the ball more than 50% of the time, Knowshon Moreno 58%. Even if Forte saw 58% that would still result in a drop in numbers.

RB LeSean McCoy, Bills (11) OVER

He is the 9th RB off the board. It’s not a stretch of the imagination to say there won’t be 9 RBs who out score LeSean McCoy. He moved on from the false genius, Chip Kelly, now the industry is down on him.

Few coaches in the NFL wanna pound the rock like Rex Ryan, Furthermore, this team will feature a weak passing offense and will lean on McCoy to move the chains. Additionally, Matt Cassel will be checking the ball down quite a bit, last time I checked, McCoy was pretty good at catching the ball ( those won’t help those in standard leagues)

McCoy will definitely out play some of the Running backs we see in front of him. Just to name a couple, I’m drafting him over Matt Forte and C.J Anderson.

WR Odell Beckham Jr, Giants (14) UNDER

I like the talent he brings to the table. We are all too willing to anoint him as a top WR, even with him having such a small body of work. He currently has an ADP of 14 and is the 4th WR going off the board.

I’m not saying he can’t live up to expectations, I’m just saying, I’m not willing to gamble on it. With a high pick like the one you will have to spend on ODB, you are better off getting a more proven commodity. I also worry about his durability as he has had chronic hamstring issues since high school.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (15) OVER

Gronk is a first round pick, he will produce like one as well. If you have the 15th overall pick and Gronk is still there, you take him. The ability to dominate the TE position all year will be something you enjoy.

It’s doesn’t matter if Brady is going to miss 4 games. Gronk is an elite talent and will still produce on a weekly basis. Young QBs often lean on their TEs.

WR Jordy Nelson, Packers (21) OVER

Getting Jordy 21st overall is a value. You’re a fool if you pass on him at this value. Jordy is a top 5 WR and a top 20 fantasy producer. He should be drafted accordingly.

WR T.Y. Hilton, Colts (25) UNDER

It will be very hard for T.Y to outplay that draft position. With the addition of Andre Johnson and the emergence of Moncrief, it’s hard to imagine he gets the same amount of targets as last year. To add insult to injury the Colts drafted talented WR Philip Dorsett.

RB Alfred Morris, Redskins (32) UNDER

He has been disappointing us for years, it’s time that we accept him for what he is, a low-end RB2. He also has talented rookie RB Matt Jones behind him. If he couldn’t keep Roy Helu off the field he has no chance at keeping Matt Jones off the field.

RB Frank Gore, Colts (36) OVER

Frank Gore is going to put up some nice numbers in this offense. He is currently the 16th RB off the board, that’s a value. Gore should finish up the year with 1300 total yards and 13 total TDs.

RB Lamar Miller, Dolphins (38) OVER

It’s very hard to gauge him,Lamar Miller is a top 20 player. Jay Ajayi hasn’t looked impressive to start camp, so things are looking up for Miller. He is a very talented back with impressive speed. I took the over I believe as long as Jay Ajayi continues to struggle Miller has a chance at a top 15 season.

RB Todd Gurley, Rams (51) OVER

I will go with the over here, with Todd Gurley being cleared for camp, there is no reason to have him outside of the top 20 RBs, as of right now he is RB22. Once he solidifies himself as the starter for the Rams, he will be a top 12 RB, you are getting crazy value on him right now.

RB T.J Yeldon, Jags (59) OVER

There will be few RBs in the league who get as much volume as him this year. I’m not saying he is a top 15 RB, but, as of right now, he is RB25. He can certainly be a top 20 RB this year, so there is some value to be had here.

QB Tony Romo, Cowboys (61) OVER

Tony Romo going 8th off the board amongst QBs is just plain silly. He has the 2nd easiest schedule amongst QBs. He is easily a top 5 QB this season. Draft him with confidence.

RB LeGarrette Blount, Patriots (64) UNDER

For starters you can’t trust any RB the Patriots have. Taking one of them as the 26th RB off the board is too risky for me. Also keep in mind Blount is far from the most talented back the Patriots have. He will also be suspended for the first week of the season. While I don’t like him as a talent, in standard leagues his TD potential makes him a good grab if you get skunked at the RB position.

TE Martellus Bennett, Bears (67) UNDER

Now that John Fox is in town, he will be pulled to the line to block more. He is currently the 5th TE off the board. That is too much to pay for a TE trending backwards.

TE Julius Thomas, Broncos (69) UNDER

He is currently the 6th TE off the board. He is a touchdown dependent TE. Jacksonville spends far less time in the redzone than Denver, so his scoring opportunities will drop. He will also see a big decline in QB play this year. This is too much to pay for Julius Thomas.

QB Tom Brady, Patriots (70) UNDER

He is going to miss the first 3 games of the season.You won’t get him back until week 4 Once back, he will produce. It is foolish to label him a top 10 QB at this point. He is currently the 10th QB off the Board.

IQB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (83) OVER

He is definitely going to out play an ADP of 83. He is currently the 12th QB off the board. He was a top 10 QB last year. He will be a top 10 QB this year. Not to mention he has the best targets to throw to that he has seen in his young career.

WR Mike Wallace, Vikings (86) OVER

A major factor to last year’s lack of success is that he didn’t fit with the Dolphins system. He also wasn’t a good fit for Ryan Tannehill. Teddy Bridgewater will be a much better fit for Mike Wallace. There is value to be had here.

TE Zach Ertz, Eagles (97) OVER

He is currently the 9th TE off the board. He is arguably the best Target the Eagles have in the passing game this year. He has potential to be a top 5 TE this year. He will still have to contend with Brent Celek for playing time and he unfortunately has the blocking skills of a swinging gate.

RB Devonta Freeman, Falcons (112) OVER

It has already been announced that he is going to be the starting RB for the Falcons going into training camp. That alone should boost his ADP higher than it is.

He is a sure value here, even if he doesn’t win the starting job, he is still going to dominate the passing game for this backfield. He converted an impressive 30 of 38 pass attempts last season.

TE Antonio Gates, Chargers (114) UNDER

There are few things in this world older than Antonio Gates. He will start the season suspended and has a very young and talented TE behind him. He is currently the 12th TE off the board. That is too much to pay for him.

WR Anquan Boldin, 49ers (122) OVER

The latest trend in fantasy football is passing up veterans for young studs. This has resulted in consistent producers like Anquan Boldin falling outside of the top 49 WRs. He is a value here.

RB Reggie Bush, 49ers (123) UNDER

Few RBs have disappointed us more than Reggie Bush in recent years. To have him inside the top 45 RBs is far too risky.

TE Josh Hill, Saints (156) OVER

Hill is currently the 16th TE off the board. He is a bona-fide starting TE in fantasy football this year. He should be a touchdown machine, he has 5 TDs on 20 targets last year.

RB Jay Ajayi, Dolphins (165) OVER

He has had a rough start to camp there is no denying that. As of right now he is struggling to he the backup spot. I’m still taking the over and still feeling confident in Ajayi. He will figure things out and start to look better in camp.

Once he does that the outlook is nice for him. He should handle all the between the tackles stuff and goaline work. We must monitor his progress in camp,but, I wouldn’t let a few days at camp scare me away.

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