NFL PRESEASON WEEK 1; THINGS WE LEARNED
In this series of articles, we’ll discuss some of the things we’ve learned in the games, as they pertain to fantasy football. I’m more of a DFS than a season long player, so while this article is going to be tailored more towards daily NFL, many of these things we’ve learned can be used as you formulate your draft strategy.
Again these articles are meant for fantasy football. I’m not going to be discussing which 3rd string quarterback is building a good on field relationship with a back-up tight end or which bubble cornerback improved his chances of making the final 53. I don’t care about these developments, and from a fantasy perspective, neither should you.
It’s important not to over react to anything that happens in the preseason (except injuries, of course.) This is especially true in the first couple of weeks, when the starters play little, if at all. Just store some of these tidbits in your mind, see if preseason trends continue, and then use them in your research and player evaluation.
Finally, I don’t watch every minute of every preseason game, I like to think I have a life outside of DFS (I probably don’t, but indulge me….) If you notice anything I’ve missed, please comment about it. Also, not every team will be listed every week since there will be games in which we really don’t learn anything we didn’t know before.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Julio Jones appears to already be in midseason form, post a ridiculous 4 catches, 61 yards and a touchdown in just one series against the Titans. On Fan Duel that line represents 14.1 fantasy points….in just one series. I thought Jones might be in line for a big year as the X receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but if he keeps this up, he’ll be in the discussion as the top fantasy WR.
BUFFALO BILLS
Keep an eye on the Buffalo QB situation. Matt Cassel started but again showed that he’s Matt Cassel. He might be the safest option for the Bills, but he offers little upside. Tyrod Taylor, on the other hand, provided a huge spark for the Bills offense. He has the ability to extend plays with his feet and showed a surprising touch and poise under pressure. If he continues this strong play and gets the Week 1 start, he could be a very affordable, sneaky tournament play in DFS and a late round sleeper in season long fantasy leagues.
CHICAGO BEARS
The #7 overall selection in the 2015 draft, WR Kevin White will undergo surgery and will miss at least half the season. He should be completely off your fantasy radar. My guess is Marquess White, who played well after Brandon Marshall went down, will start opposite Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal will man the slot. All three get a nice fantasy bump. This is a situation to monitor through the preseason.
DETROIT LIONS
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Everyone’s favorite sleeper pick, Ameer Abdullah had an excellent game rushing 7 times for 67 yards and a touchdown. While it’s questionable how many touches the 5’9”, 200 lb Abdullah will get once the regular season begins, with presumptive starter Joique Bell still recovering from offseason surgery, he’s someone to keep an eye on.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
While he only caught 3 passes for 17 yards, Devonte Adams was targeted repeatedly by Aaron Rogers, after the QB vowed Adams would be a bigger part of the offense in 2015. While it’s hard to get excited about Adams in season long fantasy football, if Rogers continues to target Adams in the preseason, he could be a decent value play in DFS tournaments.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
This franchise almost appears to be cursed from an injury perspective. The latest injury involves big money free agent TE Julius Thomas suffering a broken hand. While he should be back for Week 1, he’ll be out for the rest of the preseason, limiting his ability to develop chemistry with QB Blake Bortles. Downgrade Thomas for Week 1 in DFS.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Through two preseason games, QB Teddy Bridgewater continues to develop a nice on field relationship with athletic TE Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph is a talented TE, who was injured most of last season. If he can stay healthy, he’s someone to keep an eye on.
Speaking of Teddy Bridgewater, after a strong ending to last season, his performance in his two preseason games has been very encouraging.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
With Tom Brady possibly suspended to begin the season, all eyes are on Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo was unimpressive, to say the least. After failing to complete passes down the field in the first half, he was content to check down most of the second. He also had a tendency to hold onto the ball too long, something typical of a young QB, which resulted in seven sacks. A potential value play to begin the season, this “value” seems tentative at best. If Garoppolo doesn’t improve and is forced to start, the rest of the Patriots starters should be downgraded.
Jonas Gray had a nice game with 74 yards on seven carries, including a beautiful 55 yard TD run. While it’s normally fantasy suicide to target New England RBs, LaGarrette Blount is suspended for Week 1 and Shane Vareen and Steven Ridley are both gone. Gray is a sneaky value pick for Week 1.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Zack Ertz will undergo surgery and miss the rest of the preseason. His availability for Week 1 is in doubt, as is his ability to develop chemistry with new QB Sam Bradford. Downgrade Ertz and temper expectations for a break out season.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Rookie RB Melvin Gordon was severely out played by Branden Oliver against a below average Dallas run defense. Gordon’s upside is already limited by Danny Woodhead, the Chargers 3rd down back. Temper expectations.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Jameis Winston has a LONG way to go. His performance against the Vikings first team defense was brutal.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Bishop Sankey picked up where he left off last season with 8 carries for 15 yards. Meanwhile, 5th round draft pick David Cobb gained 53 yards on 11 carries. Sankey should be completely off your fantasy radar.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Niles Paul suffered an ankle fracture dislocation and will miss the entire season. With Logan Paulsen out for the season with a toe injury and perennially injured Jordan Reed sidelined, the Redskins TE corps is severely undermanned. Downgrade Robert Griffin III (or whoever starts Week 1) and give a slight bump to the wide receivers if Reed can’t play Week 1.
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