NFL PRESEASON WEEK 3; THINGS WE LEARNED
In this series of articles, we’ll discuss some of the things we’ve learned in the games, as they pertain to fantasy football. I’m more of a DFS than a season long player, so while this article is going to be tailored more towards daily NFL, many of these things we’ve learned can be used as you formulate your draft strategy.
Again these articles are meant for fantasy football. I’m not going to be discussing which 3rd string quarterback is building a good on field relationship with a back-up tight end or which bubble cornerback improved his chances of making the final 53. I don’t care about these developments, and from a fantasy perspective, neither should you.
This is Week 3 of the preseason, which is widely considered as the “dress rehearsal” or best look at what teams have in store for the regular season (except of course Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills.) This week’s report will be a bit more extensive and hopefully the week’s game will give us a glimpse into what to expect Week 1 of the regular season.
Finally, I don’t watch every minute of every preseason game, I like to think I have a life outside of DFS (I probably don’t, but indulge me….) If you notice anything I’ve missed, please comment about it. Also, not every team will be listed every week since there will be games in which we really don’t learn anything we didn’t know before.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Until rookie 1st round draft pick WR Breshad Perryman can take the field, the Ravens have very little at the position outside of Steve Smith Sr. Smith, until he was ejected, was having a great game against the Redskins with 4 catches with 95 yards and a TD. Smith is 36 years old and will wear down as the season progresses, but he should be on your fantasy radar until the team gets healthy at wide receiver.
BUFFALO BILLS
Can someone please explain to me why Rex Ryan has not named Tyrod Taylor the starting quarterback, yet? Taylor went 12 of 13 for 122 yards and ran once for a 20 yard touchdown. On the preseason Taylor has a 24-31/236/0 line and has 11 carries for 108 yards and a TD. It’s not like Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel have played badly, but Taylor gives the team a spark that neither of the others do. Hopefully Ryan names Taylor the starter soon.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
As expected, Cam Newton leaned heavily on TE Greg Olsen, targeting him eight times in the first half. For his part, Olsen responded with six receptions for 51 yards. With the season ending injury to Kelvin Benjamin, Olsen is the top receiving option on the team and is locked and loaded as my #1 TE on Fan Duel for his Week 1 match up against Jacksonville.
CHICAGO BEARS
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Martellus Bennett was targeted seven times on Saturday, catching all seven for 45 yards. Bennett and Jay Cutler developed a nice chemistry last season and with Brandon Marshall gone and rookie Kevin White on the PUP, Bennett is in the weekly and season long conversation at the thin tight end position.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
With Andy Dalton coming out of the game early with a minor neck injury, we didn’t learn too much about the Bengals in this game. The one thing we did learn is that Jeremy Hill has cemented the early down RB role over Giovani Bernard, who will serve as the 3rd down/change of pace role. Hill is primed for a heavy workload, after an outstanding rookie season, once he gained the starting job. He’s an elite DFS option in Week 1 against the Raiders below average run defense.
DALLAS COWBOYS
A week after being outplayed by Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden turned the tables on Randle, rushing 4 times for 37 yards compared to a 6/15 line for Randle. With the best line in the NFL, if any Dallas RB could have earned the feature back role, they would have received a huge bump, but with Lance Dunbar also in the mix as the 3rd down back, this will be a total committee approach with the Cowboys likely to ride the “hot hand” all season long.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys defense again looked very shaky, giving up 28 points against the Vikings. With injury and suspensions hurting the unit, opposing offenses should get a bump until week 5 when DE Greg Hardy and LB Rolando McClain return from suspension.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
After expecting to rest their starters, the Packers reversed course and played their regulars against the Eagles, and almost immediately began to regret their decision. Randall Cobb, poised to have a strong season with Jordy Nelson already lost for the year, sprained his AC joint and is questionable for Week 1 against the Bears. If Cobb does play, he’ll be an elite fantasy option against the Bears porous defense. If Cobb sits out, Davonte Adams will probably be the highest owned WR on Fan Duel and DraftKings, while QB Aaron Rodgers would receive a major downgrade.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Alfred Blue continues to be the favorite to lead the team in carries until Arian Foster returns from his latest injury. Blue will be a popular target in DFS sites at a bargain bin salary, but expectations should be tempered. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans have little talent on the offense and should struggle to move the ball, severely limiting Blue’s upside.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
A week after completing a touchdown pass to a wide receiver, Alex Smith hooked up with WR Jeremy Maclin for another TD. Smith targeted Maclin 7 times and the receiver responded by catching all seven for 65 yards and the TD. Smith seems to have developed chemistry with Maclin, and with the continued emergence of TE Travis Kelce, Smith could occasionally be a sneaky DFS target.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Teddy Bridgewater had another nice game against the Cowboys on Saturday night. Bridgewater went 7 for 7 for 76 yards and a 6 yard carry. On the preseason (4 games, since they played in the Hall of Fame game) Bridgewater went 29-35/295/1 with no interceptions. He’ll actually have some talent around him this year and with defenses poised to stop Adrian Peterson, Bridgewater could be a cheap option in daily fantasy tournaments.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
After a shaky first preseason game, Jimmy Garoppolo has looked much better in his last two games. After taking over for Tom Brady, he completed 13 of 17 passes for 126 yards and a TD. More importantly, Garoppolo looked more confident in the pocket and consistently looked for receivers down the field, rather than checking down repeatedly as he did in his first game.
Much is being made of the fact that Jonas Gray started over LeGarrette Blount and that Brandon Bolden served as the Patriots 3rd down back. Seriously though, at the end of the day, none of this matters. None of us will ever truly be able to figure out Bill Belichick’s running back rotation and it’s a mistake to even try. The first rule of NFL DFS is to fade the Patriots’ running backs.
NEW YORK JETS
The Jets offense looked better against the Giants, scoring 21 first half points. Chris Ivory had 6 carries for 38 yards and looks to have the 2 down job to himself after forming a committee with departed Chris Johnson the last 2 seasons. Although the fact that Ivory can’t catch a cold takes him out of the 3rd down role and limits his upside, he’s in a much better position than he has been at any time in his career.
The defense looked much better this week, limiting the Giants to 7 first half points. The Jets have the potential to have a very strong defense and the unit is on my radar in Week 1 against the Browns.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles offense looked sharp again as they scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions against a good Green Bay Packers defense. QB Sam Bradford was perfect, going 10 for 10 for 121 yards and 3 TDs. Bradford is a great DFS play in Week 1 against a terrible Falcons defense. Meanwhile WR Jordan Matthews continued his strong preseason snagging 3 passes for 51 yards. Matthews, who is the Eagles leading returning receiver, is also a strong DFS target. At their modest salaries on Fan Duel, Bradford and Matthews constitute an elite stack in tournaments.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Melvin Gordon had another shaky game against Seattle’s elite defense. He carried 14 times for only 34 yards. While it appears Gordon will have a prominent role in the Chargers offense and he was running against a strong defense, he hasn’t done anything yet to give us hope that he’ll live up to his high draft position. I wouldn’t give up on Gordon yet, but I’ll be taking a wait and see approach with the rookie.
Another player having a disappointing preseason is TE Ladarius Green. With Antonio Gates suspended for the first 4 games of the season, many were expecting the athletic freak to really break out this year. In the two games in which Green has played, he has 2 catches for 27 yards.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Not much went well for the San Francisco offense Saturday against Denver. They only scored 12 points (3 in the first half when the starters were still playing) and were held to only 92 passing yards. There’s not a lot here to recommend offensively as the 49ers should have trouble moving the ball. The one bright spot is Carlos Hyde, who rushed for 28 yards on 4 carries and looked quick and decisive hitting holes. On the preseason he has 13 carries for 76 yards.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
After a decent game last week, Jameis Winston returned to his first game form, completing only 6 of 15 pass attempts for 90 yards and an interception. Through three preseason games, Winston has complete fewer than 50% of his passes, going 23 of 47 for 311 yards, no TDs and 2 interceptions. This is yet another sign that the rookie has a long way to go. The Bucs should be a popular offense to target defenses against in DFS and stream in season long fantasy.
TENNESSEE TITANS
While not exactly looking as sharp as he did in his last game, Marcus Mariota was efficient and generally played mistake free football. He’s not someone I’ll necessarily target in DFS, but unlike most rookie QBs, he’s not someone I’ll likely target defense against, either.
Unfortunately a calf injury prevented rookie running back David Cobb from suiting up in the game against Kansas City. After a decent game last week, RB Bishop Sankey was back to his old self running 6 times for 17 yards and a fumble. With Sankey and Cobb competing for early down touches and Dexter McCluster locked in as the 3rd down back, the Titans situation has running back by committee written all over it.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Redskins offense looked much more competent with Robert Griffin III sidelined. Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy were both able to move the team and the Redskins piled up 31 points against the Ravens. With Griffin starting, the Dolphins would have been a strong defense to roster against the Skins, but better options exist if either Cousins or McCoy start.
Rookie 3rd round RB Matt Jones is a beast and it shouldn’t be long before he’s pressing starter Alfred Morris for touches. Keep this in consideration when deciding if and where to draft Morris in season long fantasy. Also, if Griffin doesn’t start, downgrade Morris in DFS. His yards per carry are a full 1 yard lower when playing with any other QB.
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