MLB DFS DraftKings GPP Lineup Advice: Tuesday 5/1/18

Because Cleveland decides to start their games an hour earlier, there are once again 14 games scheduled on DraftKings MLB main-slate. All teams are in play except the Indians and Rangers. The best of the best will take the mound this evening and for the first time in recent memory, Clayton Kershaw is not the most expensive player. He is $800 cheaper than Mad Max and a $500 discount from Chris Sale. Regardless, there are five starters in the top tier, all who are capable of scoring 35+ DraftKings points. In my opinion, there is not a viable path to winning a GPP if we fade all five.
At the bottom, we have some of the very worst pitchers throwing as well. We shouldn’t have to worry too much about ownership with 28 teams in play. Let’s dive into this huge slate and break down some of the best GPP options.

Pitchers

The top tier:

Max Scherzer (WAS): $12,700 vs. PIT
The Nationals ace has arguably been the most dominant pitcher to start 2018. Owning a ridiculous 13.15 K/9, Scherzer has increased his strikeout rate from last year. Although ownership shouldn’t be considered too much this evening, I think Scherzer will come in at the lowest ownership in the top tier, with the most upside. For starters, he has a tough matchup. Pittsburgh strikes out at just 19.5% which is the second lowest in the MLB. Next, you have to pay up for him. The theory will be “why would anyone pay the highest price when you can save on Sale, Kershaw, Verlander, or Syndergaard?” All in better matchups (in my opinion). But, Scherzer is matchup proof. He has the highest floor and ceiling. Throwing over 100 pitches in all but one game this season, the Nats will let the veteran throw. His changeup has looked downright nasty this season and there are still free-swinging hitters in this Pirates lineup to give him the K’s we need to take down a GPP. He is my favorite spend up player tonight and I will own more Max Scherzer shares than any other pitcher tonight.

Noah Syndergaard (NYM): $10,800 vs. ATL
This is a tough one. You can’t really go wrong with the other three stud pitchers. For me, Thor grades out as the second-best arm tonight. Syndergaard has the higher strikeout rate, lower BB rate, and by far lowest xFIP among the rest. He will be sneaky as well because he lacks the “cache” of the other stars. Coming in at a discount, Thor is even a great pivot off Scherzer if you are so inclined to do so. If I make 10 lineups, 6 will have Max Scherzer, and four will be lead with Noah Syndergaard (for reference on how I feel about each).

*Justin Verlander is extremely close to Noah Syndergaard for me. Almost a coin flip. The Yankees struck out 14 times last night and while they have massive power, they can be a great matchup for elite pitchers. As of now, I am on Thor but will see how the ownership trends as the day proceeds and make a decision from there. 
*Clayton Kershaw does not look like the same Kershaw. He has shown a slight decrease in velocity and has a -2.8 wFA (runs above average with his four-seam). This will be the third appearance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Advantage hitters, in a game being played at home. Yes, Kershaw shut this team down the last outing for 40 DK points, but that was in LA. Arizona is a much better team at home.
*There is nothing wrong with rostering Chris Sale. He is elite and plays for a team who will certainly produce runs for him. The only hitters with any real concern taking him deep are left-handed, which does not pose any threat. My concern is that he has failed to score 30 DK points this season. He is walking more batters than his previous four seasons showing slight command issues. I am just finding myself paying up for Max or down for Noah. 

Mid-Tier:

Jon Gray (COL): $7,100 @ CHC
Coming off an impressive start at home against the Padres, Gray will look to continue showing his skills against at Wrigley Field this evening. With 11 strikeouts in six innings pitched, the Rockies ace allowed just three hits and one walk while capturing the win. He has nearly 40 point upside at just $7,100 which makes Gray one of the best options for upside on the night. There is risk attached to Jon Gray. His ERA is an inflated 5.79, which is a concern. The Cubs have some big bats in their lineup, but can be targeted. A great SP 2 option on DraftKings if you don’t want to pay down to the low-tier.

Low-Tier

Matt Koch (ARI): $5,200 vs. LAD
Relatively unknown, Matt Koch will make his third starting appearance in the MLB this evening. At such a low cost, the Diamondbacks starter needs just 15 points to go 3X his salary and pay off value. He has done this in each of his starts. The Dodgers historically are a tough team to navigate through, however, they have been a great team to target. Now with super-star, Corey Seager, going on the season-ending DL, this Dodgers team is even more watered down. This is a very risky path to do down, but as long as Koch can be serviceable, we can fit in a top-tier pitcher, along with expensive hitters in great matchups.

Hitting Stacks

1.) Milwaukee Brewers
Targeting Homer Bailey was one of the best DFS strategies last year. The Cincinnati starter had a forgettable 2017 season and looks even worse to start this year. His K/9 has declined to 5.50, while his SIERA remains over 5. Lefties have hit him harder with a .334 wOBA, but he can be attacked from both sides of the plate. The Brewers are a team with few weaknesses in their lineup, having a combination of OPB, AVG, and homerun hitting bats. Milwaukee does strikeout a lot, but as we mentioned, Bailey has regressed in the K department. This is a tough spot for a weak pitcher and the Brew Crew should do some work. The Reds also have a very poor bullpen, making this stack even more enticing.

2.) St. Louis Cardinals
Shockingly, James Shields has given up just two homeruns to start 2018. After owning a 2.08 HR/9 rate in 2017, the White Sox veteran has reduced the longball. My thoughts are that negative regression is coming. The weather is much cooler at the start of the year, keeping the ball from flying out of the ballpark. While is homeruns have been limited, Shields currently owns a 6.14 SIERA, which is fourth highest among all MLB pitchers with a minimum innings pitched qualification. The Cardinals are a pesky team to try and navigate through and they should get to the weak bullpen early.

3.) LA Angels
Give me all the Ohtani! The Baltimore Orioles will be welcomed by the LA Angels this evening as they look to Alex Cobb for a solid outing. Unfortunately, the O’s starter is off to a horrible start and in a very tough matchup. Cobb, on the year, has just a 6.0% strikeout rate, with a 2.31 HR/9 ratio, and a .564 wOBA to left-handed hitters. He struggles against righties too, but .564 is crazy! Shohei Ohtani is showcasing elite power in the MLB and has now moved up to the fifth spot in the lineup. With great on-base hitters in front of him, there should be plenty of RBI opportunities. There are great hitting options throughout the lineup, but Ohtani grades out as the best.

4.) Boston Red Sox
Consistently going overlooked, the Red Sox always come in at much lower ownership then they should. This team has an electric offense and string together hits and runs better than any other team. Even if Mookie Betts is unavailable, this team should not go overlooked. The Royals will ask Jakob Junis to quiet this team down and is in for a tough night. It is not the best matchup for a stack, however, with the small ballpark and a hot team, these Red Sox are always GPP viable.

Position-by-position

Catcher
J.T. Realmuto $4,200 vs. PHI
Yadier Molina $3,900 vs. CWS
Willson Contreras $3,800 vs. COL
Mike Zunino $3,300 vs. OAK
Matt Wieters  $3,100 vs. PIT

First Base 
Joey Votto $4,600 vs. MIL
Hanley Ramirez $4,300 vs. KC
Ryan Braun $4,300 @ CIN
Mitch Moreland $3,900 vs. KC
Matt Olson $3,700 @ SEA

Second Base 
Brian Dozier $4,400 vs. TOR
Jed Lowrie $4,100 @ SEA
Ian Kinsler $3,800 vs. BAL
Matt Carpenter $3,600 vs. CWS
Jonathan Villar $3,400 @ CIN

Third Base
Travis Shaw $4,300 @ CIN
Rafael Devers $4,200 vs. KC
Matt Chapman $3,800 @ SEA
Zack Cozart $3,500 vs. BAL
Luis Valbunea $3,200 vs. BAL

Shortstop 
Xander Bogaerts $4,700 vs. KC
Paul DeJong $4,400 vs. CWS
Marcus Semien $4,000 @ SEA
Andrelton Simmons $3,900 vs. BAL

Outfield 
Mike Trout $5,800 vs. BAL
Mookie Betts $5,500 vs. KC
Tommy Pham $4,900 vs. CWS
J.D. Martinez $4,800 vs. KC
Andrew Benintendi $4,500 vs. KC
Lorenzo Cain $4,500 @ CIN
Shohei Ohtani $4,500 vs. BAL
Khris Davis $4,200 @ SEA
Justin Upton $4,200 vs. BAL
Marcell Ozuna $3,800 @ CWS
Domingo Santana $3,300 @ MIL

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