2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Joe Mixon
RB Joe Mixon | Cincinnati Bengals | 2nd Year
2017 Stats: 178 carries for 626 yards, 4 TDs, 30 rec, 287 yds
Joe Mixon’s rookie season was a pretty big disappointment. He started out a little overweight in rookie minicamp, and he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry over 14 games. But he has already been tabbed as the Bengals “bellcow” back for this year by director of player personnel Duke Tobin, and in mid-April Mixon said he wants to drop five more pounds and play at 220.
Jeremy Hill is gone, and Giovani Bernard seems best-suited to be a passing down back. So Mixon is indeed in line for a lot more work in his second season. Then there’s this nugget from Rotoworld’s Evan Silva.
#Bengals second-year RB Joe Mixon is projected to face the softest Running Back schedule in the league this season. https://t.co/AKkh5MSSTE
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) April 20, 2018
Personally, I hate strength of schedule as a certified measuring tool in fantasy football or any other football evaluation. It’s all based on last year, with no allowance for the roster changes that always happen. Defenses get better and worse every offseason. But as it is, even if I devalue strength of schedule or would outright ignore it most of the time, Mixon is projected to have the softest running back schedule in the league this year.
But it’s far easier to bet on Mixon having a bigger workload, and that volume simply driving better production. Strype Hype further cites some changes coming to the Bengals’ offense that may benefit Mixon, namely more shotgun and less use of a fullback, and the offensive line should be better with the additions of Cordy Glenn and Billy Price.
Via Fantasy Football Calculator, Mixon is pick 3.02 and RB17 in 12-team standard league mock drafts right now with comparable ADP (RB16, pick 3.04) in 12-team PPR mocks. That’s mid-to-high-end RB2 territory.
Joe Mixon 2018 Projection: 235 carries, 1,010 yards, 8 TDs, 35 receptions, 305 yards, 2 TD
Breakout Percentage: 75%
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