2018 Fantasy Football: NFC North Division Preview

Intro

 

1. Vikings 13-3
2. Lions 9-7
3. Packers 7-9
4. Bears 5-11

With only one playoff team from the NFC North, you would think that there wouldn’t be a ton of fantasy relevant talent in the division, but that is far from the case. The Lions had some nice fantasy numbers from both of their wide-outs and their QB. Even the Bears had some nice weeks from Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The Vikings were the fantasy juggernaut in this division — if you will. Case Keenum, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, all three of the RBs had fantasy relevance when healthy, Kyle Rudolph was solid and their defense was a top scorer as well.

Looking ahead to this year, this may be one of the best top-to-bottom divisions from a fantasy standpoint. The Vikings return all of their studs minus the QB. Kirk Cousins steps in as what many see as a significant upgrade, Dalvin Cook will return healthy and the receiving corps and defense are still largely intact.

The Packers still have Rodgers, they add TE Jimmy Graham, draft three WRs, and have two capable RBs — three if Ty Montgomery still plays RB. DeVante Adams is a Top 10 WR at worst, and they invested in their defense.

The Bears add maybe the top WR on the free agent market in Allen Robinson, as well as TE Trey Burton and then draft WR Anthony Miller to go along with Howard and Cohen in the backfield. All these weapons have many pegging Mitch Truisky as this years Jared Goff — a second-year breakout QB.

Matthew Stafford and his two receivers Golden Tate and Marvin Jones should continue to be solid fantasy options. They add LeGarrette Blount in free agency and draft Kerryon Johnson to be their lead RB. If you drafted your entire fantasy team from this division, you could build yourself a championship contender in more ways then one.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins (MIN)

Kirk Cousins ended his 2017 campaign as QB8 in terms of FPPG and was QB4 in total points (via FFToday.com), and now he steps on the field with a team that was one win away from playing in the Super Bowl. This is by far the most talented team Cousins has ever played with. He never had a running game in Washington, yet he was still one of the top play-action QBs in the NFL — and now he has Dalvin Cook to play-action pass with — #Upgrade. The receiving corps in Minnesota rivals his best group of WRs that included Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed, and the defense will give him plenty of short fields — unlike in Washington where he was starting from the 25 more often than not.

The only thing to be wary about with Cousins is in Washington, he was a volume QB. He passed the ball a ton because they couldn’t run the ball and their defense gave up a lot of points, so he was playing catchup on more than a few occasions. In Minnesota, he will be turning around and handing it off to Cook more often than he ever handed off in D.C., and he will be playing with a lead more then he did in Washington, which could lead to a more ball-control offense. All that, however, and Cousins is still a Top 10 QB with Top 5 potential.

Matthew Stafford (DET)

Excluding 2014, Stafford has been a Top 10 QB every year since 2011, yet routinely goes underdrafted. Somehow he still has the stigma of an injury-risk player, but when in reality, he hasn’t missed a single game since 2010. The one thing he has lacked since he has come into the league is a run game, so the Lions went out and drafted RB Kerryon Johnson and signed free agent LeGarrette Blount to help in that department.

You might be asking yourself, “How could a run game help Stafford’s fantasy numbers, a strong run game could mean fewer pass attempts”. One word.

Efficiency.

Stafford’s passer rating was a full 15 points higher on play-action passes in 2017 when compared to a normal drop back pass — and that was with little to no threat at running back. So while Stafford may not throw as much in 2018, if he is more efficient with his throws, it will lead to more fantasy points.

Mitch Trubisky (CHI)

Trubsiky had a typical rookie season for a QB. Some ups and plenty of downs, but overall he wasn’t terrible, and now his team is invested 100 percent in him by putting some pieces around him. First, they go out and sign free agent darling WR Allen Robinson, as well as add TE Trey Burton. Then, they draft their potential No.2 WR in Anthony Miller and, of course, they still have the one-two punch of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.

I don’t know if there is another QB in the league that has a more upgraded supporting cast from 2017 to 2018 then does Trubisky — maybe if DeShone Kizer were still in Cleveland, but he is not. The Bears made some great moves this offseason, and while I’m still scared of Trubisky in redraft, he can be had for almost nothing and has tremendous upside.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Obviously, nothing needs to be said here, Rodgers is a Top 2 QB in all formats. Assuming he is healthy, and there is nothing to say that he is not, Rodgers will be the first QB off the board.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook (MIN)

Easily the best RB in the division — with all due respect to Jordan Howard — but coming off a season-ending injury (ACL) could cause his draft stock to slip some in redraft leagues. Cook was a beast last season in the four games he played. He averaged 16.9 FPPG in PPR leagues (via FFToday.com), which was good for ninth best among RBs last season. He will come back to this season as the clear-cut No. 1, and with receiving specialist Jerrick McKinnon gone, Cook will rarely have to leave the field.

Jordan Howard (CHI)

Howard’s 2017 season wasn’t as good as his rookie season, in large part due to the arrival of Tarik Cohen. Howard, while not significantly involved in the passing game during his rookie season, had 173 more yards, averaged 4.9 more yards per catch, and had a TD reception in 2016 when compared to last season. When you combined that with nearly 200 fewer yards rushing, he averaged nearly 3 fantasy points less (PPR) in 2017 then he did his rookie season.

With that said, he was still a Top 15 RB (PPR) and ranked fifth in rushing attempts in the league, making him the second-best running back in this division. He has the potential to finish as the best RB if Dalvin Cook has any lingering issues with the torn ACL he suffered last year. I’ve seen Howard going as late as the fourth-round in some early mock drafts — that’s a steal for a potential Top 10 RB.

Tarik Cohen (CHI)

Cohen is the receiving back in this offense, but after starting off his rookie season with a bang, he ended the season as RB33 (PPR). He faltered somewhat down the stretch. After a big Week 11 with 15.9 fantasy points, he would only eclipse double-digits once more the rest of the season.

Despite the fact that he shares the backfield with Howard, I’m expecting him to improve on his rookie numbers. The former offensive coordinator of the Chiefs, Matt Naggy, is now the head coach and he will find plenty of ways to use both Howard and Cohen in this offense, especially with a second-year QB under center.

Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams (GB)

This may be the single biggest camp battle to watch in this division, if not in the entire league. Both RBs were rookies last season, and both played very well in their limited time as the lead guy. They will go into camp as No.1 and 1a, but if one of them earns the role as the lead back, his ADP will instantly rise.

Aaron Jones would be my guess to win the job as he gives the Packers a little more big-play ability, whereas Williams is more of a grinder. All we can hope is that one of them separates himself, otherwise this will be a backfield to avoid in your drafts.

Kerryon Johnson (DET)

Lions have a logjam of running backs with the former incumbent — now odd man out — Ameer Abdullah, receiving back Theo Riddick, free agent signee LeGarrette Blount and now rookie Johnson. The only RB I want any part of, however, is Johnson. The Lions have stated publicly that they view him as a three-down back and while he may split time with Blount, I see Johnson winning the job based simply on the Lion’s investment in him.

They spent a valuable second-round pick on Johnson, and with Blount only on a one-year deal, Johnson will be given every opportunity to win the job. His ADP has him at RB40 (via FantasyPros.com), but as we get closer to drafting season, his stock will rise.

Wide Receivers

Packers No. 3 WR

I’m not going to waste time talking about DeVante Adams, he is clearly a Top 10 WR. I also, won’t bother with Randall Cobb except to say I think he has a bounce-back season with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The spot I’m most interested in is who wins the No. 3 spot?

The No. 3 spot in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense has always had value. James Jones, DeVante Adams, Cobb, and even Jordy Nelson have all been fantasy relevant No. 3s before taking on larger roles, so whoever wins the No. 3 spot during camp will shoot up draft boards. The current contenders are; Geronimo Allison, J’Mon Moore, Equanimeous St. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

The Packers will be an interesting team to pay attention to in camp and preseason as they have two of the more intriguing positional battles in all of football between the No. 3 WR to the No. 1 RB. Until we know more, it’s anyone’s guess as to who wins this job.

Stefon Diggs / Adam Thielen (MIN)

There isn’t much to say about this tandem that you don’t already know. They got an upgrade at the QB position in Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook will keep defenses honest and the Vikings defense will set up a bunch of easy scoring opportunities for the offense. What’s not to like?

Marvin Jones / Golden Tate / Kenny Golladay (DET)

Golladay is one more year away from true fantasy relevance as long as the other two stay healthy, but he is one of my top dynasty stashes if you can get your hands on him. The other two will benefit from what should be an improved running game with rookie Kerryon Johnson and veteran bruiser LeGarrette Blount.

Tate is always in the Top 5 in yards after the catch and Jones showed some tremendous ball skills in the red zone last season on his way to nine receiving TDs. Both will likely go under-drafted and will present some sneaky value in the mid-rounds.

Allen Robinson / Anthony Miller (CHI)

The tandem of the unknown. Can Allen Robinson return to form after his season-ending injury last year? Is Anthony Miller good enough to step in a No. 2 role in year one? Can Mitch Trubisky support two WRs to fantasy relevancy? These questions won’t likely be answered until preseason or later, but both players have tremendous upside. I’m very high on Allen Robinson based soley on volume, and by all accounts he will be 100 percent by the start of Week 1.

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph (MIN)

Rudolph had a bit of down year when compared to his 2016 season, but his touchdown totals will always keep him fantasy relevant. His eight TDs in 2017 was one off his career high of nine way back in 2012. At 6-foot-6, he is a huge target for newly acquired QB Kirk Cousins, who happens to love throwing to his tight end — especially in the red zone. One big thing to note with Rudolph is he hasn’t missed a game in three straight seasons. He is a solid TE1 but with limited upside due to his scoring dependency.

Jimmy Graham (GB)

Going into his ninth season, Graham has been fortunate to play with some of the best QBS in the NFL, starting with Drew Brees then Russell Wilson and now Aaron Rodgers — that alone will make you fantasy gold. Despite his decent numbers in Seattle, it never felt like he really fit into what they wanted to do.

The biggest worry I have with Graham is what everyone else seems to love. His quarterback. Yes, I think Rodgers could be bad for Graham. Let me explain.

Rodgers became the starting QB in 2008 and since then has had only one season in which he produced a Top 10 tight end (Jermichael Finley, 2011). That’s it. One season. I know what you’re going to say, “Well, he hasn’t had a talented tight end on his team.” I’d argue that he had Finely from 2008 to, let’s say 2012 (injured most of 2013), and that only produced one Top 10 finish.

Rodgers spreads the ball around and he loves throwing it to his wide receivers. In fact, the No. 3 WR on the team over the course Rodgers’ career has consistently outscored the tight end in fantasy points. Needless to say, I’m not high on Graham this season.

Trey Burton (PHI)

After four seasons in Philly, playing behind Zach Ertz for the majority of it, Burton will finally get his shot at the No. 1 tight end for his new team the Bears. In his one start in 2017 in place of an injured Ertz, Burton posted 5 receptions for 71 yards and two TDs. His five TDs on the season was the 10th most in the league, and with the exception of O.J. Howard, all of them were their respective teams No. 1 tight end — led by Jimmy Graham’s 10.

His upside will depend on how well he and second-year QB Mitch Trubisky gel in camp, but if you’re looking for a low-end TE1 with upside to be Top 5, Burton is that guy.

Recap

The NFC North is loaded with fantasy relevant stars, both veterans like Aaron Rodgers, rookies like Kerryon Johnson and young talents like Kenny Golladay and Dalvin Cook. The division itself will be one of the top divisions in terms of competitiveness as they have three teams that could make a playoff run and a Bears team that could sneak in if things break their way. This division also has one of the most drastic gameday climate differences in the entire NFL with Green Bay and Chicago having some of the worst weather stadiums in the NFL to the Vikings and Lions weathered controlled Domes. I don’t like to look at the weather when drafting, but it does affect fantasy value and is something to at least take into account when splitting hairs between two players.

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