2018 Fantasy Football: Impact Rookie RBs

The NFL fantasy world was taken over by young running back talent with the 2017 class. In full total points for PPR scoring formats, four of the top 10 running backs were rookies. The class was headlined by the Saints 3rd round pick Alvin Kamara. The others were fellow third-round pick Kareem Hunt, the league leader for running back targets Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette. One more throw in for the group as well is Dalvin Cook. He missed the final 12 games, after suffering an ACL tear in his Week 4 matchup. With an average of 16.4 points per game, he ended as the 10th best running back in that statistical category.

This years draft had a lot of talented players and were a very deep class as well. This was the first time since the 2012 draft where there were three running backs selected in the first round. It was also the first time since the 2013 draft where there were 4 running backs drafted in the second. If you have not caught on – what I am getting at is there is a lot of talent in this years class, and the draft capital proves it. This class has its sure-fire guy and the fantasy community is well aware of that bad man, Saquon Barkley. So we will touch on him but also touch on 4 other guys whom I believe ended up in the ideal spots to create the most value. This is 4 guys whom I feel could end up being top 10 running backs when all said and done if everything pans out. But here are my thoughts and what I think they can bring to the NFL level and their team.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is currently the only sure-fire rookie to predict in terms of guaranteed workload and what to expect. The Giants invested a number two overall pick on him and that showed you what they felt they were adding to this roster. They could have taken the QB of the future but felt this team had the pieces to turn it around and make a run at the playoffs. If they hope to do that, Barkley is going to be right in the mix of everything. He is a running back coming out of college that was an elite playmaker by running and catching. Find a way to get him in the open space and he has the skill set and athleticism to take care of the rest.

The Giants are one of the most ideal places any rookie running back could have gone. There are playmakers everywhere you look with the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram. The Giants have struggled to muster up any form of the run game but addressed their need of quality offensive line. They added former New England Patriot Nate Solder to play LT, former Jacksonville Jaguar Guard Patrick Omameh and drafted Guard Will Hernandez. Still guided by former 2x Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning.

According to FantasyPros, the rookie running back currently has an ADP of 8 in PPR scoring formats. I would like to think that most of the players right now being taken above Barkley will remain that way as we inch closer to the season. I believe Barkley will be able to return a lot of value for his owners this year. After seeing the results of last years rookie there should be very little hesitation in taking him in any scoring format if you have that mid-to-late 1st round pick.

Projected Finish: Top 5 RB

Rashaad Penny

Overall most of the NFL fans and media were pretty shocked when the Seattle Seahawks pick was announced. No one would tell you they were surprised by the position the team selected, because that was a large need, but more at the name that was called. I introduce to you Rashaad Penny, the 27th pick in the first round of the NFL draft. Penny shared the rock with current Philadelphia Eagles running back, Donnel Pumphrey, throughout his college career and the two made for one of the best backfields in all of college football. This season Penny was the feature back and did not disappoint. He led the NCAA in rushing and second in rushing touchdowns. This kid found a way to create yards and make plays.

The Seahawks have had a big hole to fill since Marshawn Lynch left the team, after the 2015 season. They have rotated in many different names both young rookies and older veterans yet nothing has seemed to work. The main cause of the lack of a running game is due to the inconsistent play of the offensive line. That unit received a lot of criticism some fair and some unjust for their play last season. There is a lot of young talent on the offensive line with Ethan Pocic, Germain Ifedi, and George Fant. The team also signed new offensive line coach Mike Solari. The expectations for him is to get these guys in the right place and the development on track.

FantasyPros has Penny with a current ADP of 45.3, which is RB22. While I like Penny because there is a lot of draft capital invested in him, I have my reservations. First, this was just a surprising player at the pick he was drafted. I liked him as a prospect and the stats back it up but I did not see a translation to be a lead back in the NFL. The upside with Penny is his situation and the fact that if he can come out day 1 and prove he can be a three-down back, which he was in college, then he is going to get a lot of usage. The key to a successful fantasy season for an RB is always their usage. The more opportunities the better, and Penny should be the poster child of that saying this season. With Russel Wilson at the helm, this team should be able to move the ball on offense and Penny should be able to find pay dirt both on the ground and through the air.

Projected Finish: Top 15 RB

Derrius Guice

The Washington Redskins moved on from Kirk Cousins and traded to bring in Alex Smith to lead the offense. Over the past couple of years, the Redskins seemed to use a lot of running back committees having yet to find their lead horse. Enter, Derrius Guice whom they drafted with the 27th pick in the second round. Guice was a lot of media members number two running back in the class talent wise but had a ton of red flags, which allowed him to slide. Like Penny, he too shared the backfield with a current NFL running back in college and got the chance to shine this season.

Last season, like this season, saw a lot of unanswered questions from the running back group in Washington. It is a crowded room with some young running backs who have not been able to find their stride. Chris Thompson after his spectacular start to the season showed his big-time playmaking ability. Once back to full speed and health I expect him to see the same third-down role, if not a greater one. Guice will really be battling last years leader in team rushing yards Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley. Health has hindered Kelley from establishing himself and Perine struggled to make explosive plays. Leading to the search for a new lead back who can bring consistency and stability to the backfield.

Currently, Guice has an ADP of 48 and coming in as the 23rd running back taken. For Guice to show value early on, he will need to have a stellar camp. This would allow him to take charge of the backfield coming into the season. On talent alone I believe he should be able to win the job but, we know that is not always the case. I think there are some who still want to see if they have anything in Kelley or Perine. I don’t think the workload gets passed to Guice full time till at least a quarter of the way if not more through the season. Along with that unknown Thompson is reportedly going to show up to camp healthy. Not only will there be limited carries that will just about take away any chances at carving out some carries on third down.

Projected Finish: Top 20 RB

Ronald Jones

Another rookie who fell into a running back room that has yet to establish a lead back, Ronald Jones. The theme for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at running back last season was inconsistency. There was a platoon of 4 running backs and not one finished the season over 450 yards rushing. The Doug Martin era has ended and the Bucs wasted no time finding his replacement. Jones was taken as the 6th pick in the second round, by the Bucs. The former USC Trojan led his team in rushing all three years and was a human highlight reel. He showed shades of the days of Reggie Bush, having that same ability to flash and make cuts on a dime when in space.

Martin was the epitome of a flash in a pan. There are a lot of fantasy fans that like to remember the young Martin, the muscle hamster, it was fun times. Those days are long gone and the Buccaneers have been trying to make this work the past couple of season. Jones will be battling Jacquizz Rodgers, Charles Sims and Peyton Barber for carries. As noted earlier none of these three have shown that much hope to keep you from believing Jones will ultimately be the number one. These are all backs who have show value as the change of pace or gadget players, asked to handle limited responsibilities.

Jones has a current ADP of 71.4, for the 27th running back. At this value, I would say he is a great bargain. As long as Jones can separate during training camp I think he will be able to establish himself early on as a playmaker. Allowing him to keep the other three running backs as third down or package players. The early suspension of Jamies Winston will also help Jones early, as you expect the Buccaneers to keep the ball on the ground with potentially limited play calling. He was never asked to be much of a pass catcher in college which will hurt his value in PPR leagues. However, if he can show enough where they see the value of him in space and get him involved, watch out. I think Jones is the sneakiest value of the rookies.

Projected Finish: Top 10 RB

Kerryon Johnson

The Detroit Lions have been a workhorse running back away from being a prolific offense for years. Since Matthew Stafford entered the league in 2009, the Lions have only had one 1,000 rusher. That was accomplished by Reggie Bush in 2013 who eclipsed that mark with 1,006 yards. To say there has been a lack of a running game in Detroit would be an understatement. The Lions invested their 2nd round pick, 11th in the round, and drafted Kerryon Johnson. Auburn featured Johnson as the lead running back and did not disappoint. He racked up 1,391 yards and 18 touchdowns which led the SEC. A conference which also featured Nick Chub, Derrius Guice, and Sony Michel. It was an impressive season from Johnson.

The Lions have a good younger unit on the offensive line. They should be able to create lanes and be physical at the point of attack to open up the run game. A lot of the issues have been that there was not a lot of investment in the running back position. LeGarrette Blount was added to the roster coming over after a Super Bowl win. Along with Blount, the Lions also still have Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah. Carries are going to be tough to find for Johnson. Riddick has been a consistent threat out of the backfield throughout his career. I would expect to see him in third down pass catching role. Blount should be the one to get the call at the goal line this year as he has done over the past couple for Philadelphia and New England. I expect to see Abdullah suffer the most in terms of snap count and usage.

Johnson is at a current ADP of 104.4, coming off the board as the 39th running back. He should have every right to compete for this starting job from day one. He dominated in what the majority would say is the toughest conference in the NCAA. I am not sure why but Johnson was knocked coming into this draft. Some of the comparisons have been Le’Veon Bell, and I think that is a bit much. Johnson’s patience and decision remind me of Bell for sure. I don’t know if there is as much success for Johnson in the passing game. I think by the end of the season the Lions will have found their future three-down back.

Projected Finish: Top 20 RB

Royce Freeman

The Denver Broncos did not have a season that they will soon want to remember. After starting 3-1, their week 4 bye did them no favor. After the bye week, the team went 2-10 to finish the season. The team turned the ball over too often and could not find consistent play at QB. The organization parted way with 1,000-yard rusher CJ Anderson, leaving a massive hole in terms of carries. They addressed that with the number 71 overall pick. Royce Freeman fell to the 3rd round and fit right into the plan for the Broncos. Now they add the rushing touchdown career leader for the Pac-12, who is also 2nd all-time in rush yards.

The offense was a roller coaster last year, to say the least. The quarterback position was a mess but mostly led by Trevor Siemian. The big free agent move was adding former Viking, Case Keenum. Keenum showed he could lead a team with the proper play calling and playmakers around him. The one thing the Broncos don’t lack is playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. They already boast one of the best duos at the wide receiver position with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. In the draft, they added Freeman and another receiver in the second round, Courtland Sutton. These should be some good pieces to help the Broncos score and be more consistent.

As of now, Freeman is carrying an ADP of 63, which is good for the 33rd running back taken. There have already been rumors and stories coming out of early OTAs that Freeman will have the opportunity to compete for the starting role. This is a role as eluded to earlier Freeman is familiar with. He is a running back with good size to shed tacklers, and the elusiveness to make them miss – leading to the ability to hit the home run on any play. With the only real competition from Booker, I am expecting Freeman to have a productive year. Booker might take a lot of the receptions but Freeman should lead the team in rushing yards and touchdowns.

Projected Finish: Top 20 RB

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