The Pros And Cons Of Allen Hurns (fantasy football)

Define; ’Homerism’ (Ho-mer-is-m); The tendency of sports fans to advocate for their home teams or players to an unreasonable or irrational degree.

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% still trying to drive Trey Burton‘s ADP back down – the hype is still too real for me! There was some great discussion following and I’m hoping this weeks write-up is no different. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy Draft Season will be based on the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

So what do we think about Allen Hurns? Asked Matthew Berry to the crowd at this year’s National Fantasy Football Convention held in Dallas over the last weekend. 

And just like that, one of the most hardcore fan bases for once was divided. When other players names were called out you could hear loud boos or loud cheers. For example, Berry, a Washington ‘Homer’ was booed anytime the words Washington and/or Redskins (which was frequent mind you) were said. Carson Wentz – boo. Eli Manning – boo. Odell Beckham Jr – boo. And so on and so on….

But for Hurns, it was hard to describe. This question alone split those in attendance like nothing else. And if indifference had a noise attached to it then the room that day defined it. And that is exactly what it was, everyone was indifferent. Dallas’ newest star Free Agent addition has everyone scratching their heads. The crickets didn’t even want to chirp it was that quiet. No-one wanted to (or knew if they should) commit to being for or against him. 

So let me give you an idea of what the room was like:

Half of the crowd was clearly stuck in 2014 when the 12-4 Cowboys lead by DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Tony Romo dominated the NFC and were oh-so-close to going to a Super Bowl. Three of those four players mentioned have since retired, the other is a Free Agent himself. The other half of the room is trying to forget the past and move forward. They will admit that Dez Bryant has struggled and didn’t ‘click’ like they would have hoped he would with Dak Prescott, who is now the clear leader of their team with Ezekiel Elliott; ensuring a fresh look for a team trying to rediscover or create a new identity. The feeling amongst the all of the Cowboys fans was that patience is wearing thin for ‘Americas Team’ and if there aren’t some signs of life (or progress at the very least) they could end up having an identity crisis in Dallas this season.

So, why can’t people get behind the Cowboys evolution and their new starting Receiver Allen Hurns? Why is a very good question indeed and it makes for the perfect opportunity to have Allen Hurns as this week’s Pros and Cons!

For starters, Hurns has been sporadic in his best AND worst seasons:

He has only finished more than 15 games twice (his Rookie year in 2014 and 2015) and played 10 and 11 games respectively in 2016 and 2017. He has had some nagging injuries in the past few years so it could be said that health may be an issue. What may have sealed his fate, however, was in 2016 Marquise Lee stepped up and took over Hurns’ role and the time he missed in the last two seasons has seen Lee play a total of 9 more games. Ultimately, Lee took his chances while Hurns watched from the sidelines. But in 2016 Hurns was on track for his best Target numbers – which is great, with the opposite a year later in 2017 as those Target numbers would have taken a complete nosedive which, you guessed it, is not so great. More on that later though!

Although his best season was in 2015 he amassed 105 Targets for 64 Receptions at 1031 Yards for 10 TDs. 16.11 Yards Per Reception? Not bad! How about 61% Catch Rate coming from Blake Bortles? He finished as the WR14 in Standard Scoring and WR18 in PPR. His ADP was the WR65 in Standard Scoring and WR62 in PPR. That is a pretty good return for someone you may have picked up in the 13th Round in either draft format!

This small snapshot of Allen Hurns over the past four years says so much and still so little. But…

Do you know:

• Jason Garrett has made the playoffs with the Cowboys as a Head Coach only TWICE (2014 and 2016) in 8 seasons. But guess what? It’s 2018! You know what that means!? It’s an even-numbered year! Better chalk them ‘Boys up for another 12-4 or 13-3 season! Trends, right?

• Dak Prescott likes to place it where Allen Hurns likes it. Hurns in 2017 ran 72.8% of his plays from the slot which is great for Prescott now that he has lost Jason Witten who ate that area up. Allen Hurns is also not Terrence Williams, so that’s a big plus also…

• Hurns has been compared to Robert Woods (Playerprofiler.com) which is great for those worried about either of their current ADP. In Standard Scoring Hurns is WR44 and Woods is WR40, while in Half PPR Woods is WR42 while Hurns is WR46. (fantasyfootballcaluculator.com). Woods had a career year last year topping out at 85-56-781yds-5TDs under new Titans OC Matt LaFleur who was previously at the LA Rams.

Average Draft Position? More like a Hype train with no conductor…

Bare with me here while we walk through this, together…

Another player going in the same range as Allen Hurns is Corey Davis (WR26 in Half PPR and WR29 in Standard Scoring). And for this exercise please remember that Allen Hurns is WR46 in Half PPR and WR44 in Standard Scoring. The lowest common theme for both players is that both of their last games were against the New England Patriots in Playoff matchups. How did they perform? Hurns went 7-6-80yds and was the Jaguars best Receiver on the day. Davis? 8-5-63yds-2TDs. Scores aside that’s fairly close as they performed great respectively against an amazing Patriots team.

However…

Both played less than 12 games (Davis 11, Hurns 10) in the same regular season and both had less than 500 total yards (Davis 375, Hurns 484). They also have less than 2 TDs during the regular season (Davis 0, Hurns 2) between them. Davis saw more Targets (Davis 65, Hurns 56) and similar Receptions (Davis 34, Hurns 39).

Now I get why the populous loves Corey Davis this year. He was a Rookie and in his last game, he looked like a bonafide star. He has a new OC in Matt LeFleur for the Titans, who has carried a successful, lead Receiver in most places he has been so by proxy Davis is a shoe-in for that role. I get it. But let’s reword this; Hurns played fewer Games and had fewer Targets but had more Receptions, Yards, and TDs? Hurns statistically was better. But Hurns as a Rookie on a terrible (no really, a terrible) 2014 Jaguars offense that went 3-13, excelled with a 98-51-677yds-6TDs. I also mentioned that Matt LeFleur usually carries one top Receiver and in the 2017 season it was indeed Robert Woods (see above again – cheers) and to be fair he wasn’t that great. So why are we taking Corey Davis over Allen Hurns again?

It seems like it is more wishful thinking that Davis and LeFleur can produce big time and that hypothetical is more important than anything Hurns has ever produced. And maybe they can produce and maybe Hurns won’t perform. But now we are Drafting a guy like Corey Davis many Rounds before Hurns on hopes, dreams and butterfly kisses and not what is staring us in the face: that Hurns could outwork him and be the top target for a Cowboys team looking for vengeance on a 2017 season that was lost for all the wrong reasons.

So my Children of the Korn, what are…

The Pros –

He gets his Running Back and Quarter Back together for a full year (hopefully) – 

Dak Prescott was a QB1 for the first 8 weeks of the year until Elliott got suspended for 6 weeks. Prescott is as safe as he is accurate (65.2% completion rate). Elliott tends to open up Prescott’s opportunities through the air as he is usually the first option the Cowboys look to. The Cowboys had a winning 5-3 record before the suspension, and when Elliott is available and Prescott averaged 27 passing attempts per game. But this season the team looks completely different, so;

Who is leaving food on the Cowboys plate – 

With Jason Witten retiring, Dez Bryant getting cut and Ryan Switzer being traded have opened up 226 Targets for Hurns and the Cowboys in 2018. On average, Hurns has averaged 83.5 Targets a year; but he missed 11 games over the past 2 years. Based on the 2 seasons that he finishes at least 15 games he looks to top out at 101 Targets. However, in 2016 as the ‘lead’ receiver he was on pace for 110 Targets; however only played 11 games in that season. The first 3 years of his career his targets were going up.

You can get him late…..like late-late…

The most enticing thing about all of this is where you can get him in your draft. And as hype season is yet to fully kick in I wouldn’t be surprised if he kept falling down draft boards. I have mentioned where he is going as a Receiver, but in actual ADP he is going as 118th off the board (10.08) in Half PPR or 116th in Standard Scoring (10.07). There is a chance you are getting 100 plus Target Receiver for his team as a 5th Receiver in your draft which is incredible value for a Bench spot. Adversely, if you happen to wait on a Receiver and load up elsewhere he could still be there – at worst – as your 3rd or 4th Receiver picked up. Any way you play this, he could be a big addition to your team overall. He screams Value, Volume, and Validation.

I mean all that sounds encouraging! but what are…

The Cons – 

‘We are going to spread it around’ – 

Woof. The downside is that Dak Prescott has produced only a WR2 once (PPR format, 12 team league) which was Dez Bryant in 2017 who finished as the WR24 His competition for Targets will be Rookie Michael Gallup and Cole Beasley – not a problem considering Hurns has fought for Targets with Allen Robinson previously. So, a QB who doesn’t produce a WR1 in 2 years – not great!

Elliott or Fournette it doesn’t matter, both would hurt his production – 

In 2017 the Jacksonville Jaguars announced that they ‘did not want Blake Bortles throwing the ball at all if they could help it’. They upgraded their Offensive Line then drafted the top Running Back in the 2017 Draft Class in Leonard Fournette. They were right, they ran the ball as good if not better than anyone and Hurns suffered collecting a career-low 56 Targets and 39 Receptions which naturally saw a drop in Yards and TDs too. In 2016 (with an average of 16 games) 110.5 Targets which was lead by Chris Ivory in the run game. In 2017 (with an average of 16 games) he would have been on pace for 89.6 Targets. That’s an 18.91% drop in Targets on a team with a dominant run game. Hurns is about to join a team with arguably the best O-Line in the NFL with arguably the best RB in the league too. So is it unreasonable to think that Elliott may have a 2017 Todd Gurley-like season? I’d think that this scenario is likely on the cards. This will ultimately hurt Hurns hitting his ‘ceiling’.

No ‘star’ Receiver alongside him yet his fluctuations were still there – 

In 10 games in 2017, 70% of the time Hurns did not receive for over 45 yards. For the ‘leading man’, this is pretty bad. Only one time in his ‘poor performances’ did he cross for a TD. And in a season when the Targets and Yards are not there you need to assert yourself in the TD column instead – that’s how you catch up to the pack. A total of 2 TDs in a season where there was no threat to his Targets is not a good sign and it’s a similar situation he will see again this year in Dallas. The Cowboys, in general, are a run-first team. And if the Targets do get spread around – we have seen that Hurns can and has gone missing before.

2018 Prediction – 

His Floor – 

Targets – 88 / Receptions – 56.61 / Catch Rate – 64.32% / Yards Per Reception – 14.21 / Yards – 804.61 / TDs – 6

Summary – 

I mentioned at the start of this article that everyone felt indifferent but for me, it comes down to risk/reward. If Hurns’ floor projected above is something that when you draft him is manageable then I think there is no problem with where he is going – a WR4 with WR2 upside. He could easily find himself in the 110-120 Target range with 950 yards and 8-10 TDS – that can definitely happen, what’s stopping him from dominating and being their best Receiver?

My main concern is how the Cowboys use Hurns. For the life of me, I do not trust Jason Garrett or Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan. I fear that they are going to keep ‘Feeding Zeke’ first and maybe hit any of the other Receivers second and that’s if Prescott doesn’t hit the ground running for yards himself. Terrence Williams is no good. Cole Beasley is just a ‘slot-guy’ and Michael Gallup is being hyped up as the next Dez Bryant yet is still unproven. But for me and from what we have seen Hurns is the most talented guy there right now. Whether they recognize that and exploit it is another thing.

This week, I, unfortunately, believe the Cons outweigh the Pros. I like Allen Hurns as a player, I do. What I do not like is the Cowboys coaching philosophy of using multiple Receivers after using the run-game first. We have seen him fade when the Running Back is the focal point and that’s exactly an Offense where he finds himself again. I have outlined what his floor could be, and I think he may be lucky to do that well.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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