2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Trey Burton
TE Trey Burton | Chicago Bears | 5th Year
2017 Stats: 23 rec., 248 yards, 5 TD
Fresh off channeling his days as a college quarterback with the “Philly Special” in the Super Bowl, Trey Burton got a four-year, $32 million deal ($22 guaranteed) from the Chicago Bears in free agency. After being the second or third tight end for the Eagles, he’s going to the top of the depth chart in the Windy City.
New head coach (and former Chiefs offensive coordinator) Matt Nagy has confirmed Burton will play the “Travis Kelce role” in Chicago’s offense. Kelce had a 22.6 percent target share last year (counting only the 540 attempts from Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes), and has essentially been Kansas City’s No. 1 receiver, so that’s good news for Burton.
Zach Ertz missed two games last year, Week 9 against the Broncos and Week 14 against the Rams, which opened the door for Burton to play more and he delivered. Against the Broncos he had two catches for 41 yards and a touchdown, and in Week 14 against the Rams he had five grabs for 71 yards and two scores. When Ertz missed Week 2 of the 2016 season, Burton had five receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown. So in three of four games as the Eagles’ lead tight end over the last two seasons, Burton delivered starter-worthy stat lines.
The Bears proactively added talent around Mitch Trubisky this offseason, signing wide receivers Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel in free agency and adding wide receiver Anthony Miller in the draft. Along with running back Tarik Cohen, Burton has plenty of competition for targets.
The hype for Burton is backed by his current average draft positions in 12-team leagues. Via Fantasy Football Calculator, he’s TE9 (pick 7.10) in both standard and PPR (pick 8.02). For some context, TE9 in ESPN leagues last year (default PPR scoring) was Jason Witten (63 receptions for 560 yards and five touchdowns). Burton should have no trouble topping that yardage total, but the catch total feels like the high end of the projection range.
Trey Burton 2018 Projection: 56 receptions for 605 yards, 5 TD
Breakout Percentage: 70%
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
