The Pros And Cons Of Sammy Watkins (Fantasy Football)

The word of the day is ‘Upside’ – and if you had to chose one player to put next to that word, who would you chose?

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% hating all the preseason injuries, it’s heartbreaking stuff! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience, I found that most people were either in, out or not really fussed about Kenyan Drake which is worrying considering he commands a 4th Round value. Let’s track his preseason and check in before the season starts, he could be a diamond in the rough! Or just rough… Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy Draft Season will be based on the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

There are way too many players to pigeonhole with the term ‘upside’. And without a doubt amongst the list of candidates to be the advocate of said description is none other than Sammy Watkins. Good hands, great speed; Watkins has teased us over the past few seasons by burning the opposition, and in 2017 showed versatility to his game, but he has also over time hurt our Fantasy teams also by missing 13 games over four seasons due to injury also. Showing signs of maturity, versatility, and growth in his game from last season, Watkins is looking to take a leap as an elite Receiver and this is quite possibly his best chance to do so.

What is his ‘upside’ though? Is it exceeding his (or our own) expectations? Is it a Target, Reception, TD or Yards progression? Is it simply being better than Tyreek Hill? Or is it bettering his current Average Draft Position (ADP)? But amongst the pundits, Watkins is the man who parted the Red Sea. This offseason that swell of support is getting higher, whilst the depths of doubters are the tide pushing him further away towards Gilligans Island.

How do I feel about Sammy Watkins as a whole?

I have been putting off any article to do with Sammy Watkins. For starters, I don’t want to deal with his heavy dose of ‘truthers‘ boastfully and vociferously proclaim that it is (once again) ‘the year of the Sammy Watkins‘. There is a lot to talk about and I’ll be honest I’ve always felt like the various opinions of him backed up by ‘half’ stats or debated by some cut up footage from one of the favorite beat-reporters to justify a stance has always been too aggressive and sometimes unfair towards the player himself. For the most part, I feel like too much talking has been done about him without diving into him enough. But there has never really been a balanced conversation and that’s what I’m here to provide this week.

So when news broke of Watkins heading to Kansas after only seven months playing for the Rams; I could hear it coming. ‘Air Raid’ Patrick Mahomes with ‘Quarterback Whisperer’ Andy Reid now partnered up with ‘Speedstar and Deep Ball’ threat Sammy Watkins. The wheels for the Watkins hype train were in motion as soon as he left Los Angeles. Another new team. A fairly massive deal which gifts him a 3-year stint at Arrowhead; with $30 million in the bank and now on a team loaded with phenomenal Offensive talents like Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Kareem Hunt. So right now, after everything has calmed down about his arrival, I feel like now is the time to have a talk about Watkins, his talents, and production and his potential outcome for 2018. So without further adieu…

Let’s take it to the Polls!

So to gauge the temperature of the room (and by room I mean a 24 hour Twitter poll), I asked the following:

So, after 1464 votes, and with 48% (702 total votes) the Fantasy Football Community believe Sammy Watkins will end the year as a WR2 (WR13 to WR24) in PPR format. What was interesting for that WR2 ‘vote of confidence’ followed with statements like this:

‘I believe he can be (upside!) a WR1 but I voted for a WR2 floor.’

‘I believe he will be a WR3, but voted for him to be (upside!) a WR2.’

‘I think his ceiling is WR2 (upside!) OR his floor is WR2 (upside!).’

Now, ‘WR1’ and ‘None Of The Above’ both commanded 6% (87 votes) of the vote each generally came with the following stance:

‘Tyreek Hill will get found out, Watkins is the man.’

OR

‘Watkins is trash, stop the madness.’

What is clear now more than ever is that Watkins carries a certain je ne sais quoi about him…

What? I don’t even know what that means @TheBLeagueSays, but did you know:

• The last time Watkins finished as a WR2… Well, it wasn’t in 2017 (finished as the WR42) that’s for sure! In 2016 we saw an injury-plagued season – however, in 8 games in Buffalo he did only have 11 fewer Receptions than he did with the Rams over 15 games (make anything out of that if you will). In 2015 however? Bam! There is it! WR2 territory three seasons ago! Watkins finishes as the WR20 (the highest in his career) for the year which was a slight improvement on his Rookie 2014 as he finished an impressive WR27. So in four years; one WR2 finish, one WR3 finish, WR4 finish.
• That Andy Reid giving out contract extensions or signing Free Agent Receivers end up about as useful as… A venomless snake. A bull without horns. Diet Coke. Insert any object and find a useless comparison, because the guys that Reid targets or re-signs have never lived up to either their hype or the money. Recent Receivers that Andy Reid has paid have been Dwayne Bowe and Jeremy Maclin. When reminded of these guys that Andy Reid paid up for the first thing I did was have a laugh. Then I cried. Then I looked at their respective contracts. And then I cried some more. Bowe signed a 5-year $26 Million in guarantees deal, and Maclin signed a similar a 5-year $22.5 Million in guarantees deal – both players only lasted two seasons after signing their deals. The question needs to be; is it ‘third times a competent player’ for Reid with Watkins this time around, or should he have kept Albert Wilson as a cheaper alternative?
• Even though I’d love a Creme Brulee for dessert, sometimes a bag of Caramel M’n’Ms will do the job… Food for thought really: while I’m going to get into Average Draft Position (ADP) later, Rishard Matthews last year finished the year in Points Per Reception formats as the WR37 with a stat line of 87-53-795-4 for 156.2 total points and went at the back end of the 10th Round (#119th Overall) in 2017. Sammy Watkins, however, went at the back end of the 6th Round (#71st Overall) and finished as the WR41 with 146.3 total points. What’s changed this year? Well, Watkins – remember, having the less productive season – is still going in the early 7th Round (#75th Overall) and Matthews, well, he’s fallen back into the mid 14th Round (#187th Overall) somehow. So I guess when you’re drafting at your table this year and you start feeling that sweet-tooth ache in the early middle Rounds you’ll figure out how fancy you really are or if a quick trip to Walgreen’s will get you through the night…
• Their Quarterbacks did extremely well when finding them… Hill and Watkins respectively amongst Wide Receivers in 2017 went Numbers one and two in Quarterback Rating Efficiency (Hill; 130.6 rating with Alex Smith, Watkins 129.8 rating with Jared Goff). What was noticeable however was that all of Hill’s 7 TDS were for 30 or more yards proving yet again he is a big play guy. Yet Hill only saw 4 End Zone Targets the whole year. When you have Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt you clearly won’t be the first option so I get why this may happen. Watkins adversely scored 7 TDS of 10 End Zone Targets and showed immense efficiency, which is something he has never really been known for. Watkins, last year proved to be more than just a ‘downfield guy’ in 2017 unlike in years of the past which is great for his evolution as a skilled player.

Ok, Mon’Amie, get to…

The Pros – 

He has had a healthy offseason and a chance to learn the playbook – 

When was the last time Sammy Watkins had a relatively healthy, uninterrupted offseason and preseason? Feels like forever right? I love that his move happened early in the year and he has had a chance to acclimatize with his new team.

There was no chance he was set up to succeed in L.A. last year that close to the season starting; I would have loved to have seen what he could have done in another season for the Rams. Some will say he was used more as a decoy and that opened up Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp and maybe it did. It may have even allowed teams to second guess Todd Gurley‘s use in the backfield. Either way, half the time he was out on the field it felt like it was because he had to be.

However, compared to his stint as a Bill? If you thought L.A. must also feel like a fresh start for Watkins, where the hard-headed, run first play calling of Doug Marrone or whatever the hell Rex Ryan came up with probably hurt his learning experience – then coming to Kansas where there seems to be less traffic for opportunity than he had in L.A. must feel like a blessing. He won’t be too far behind the learning curve that Pat Mahomes will be on and to be fair it’s open season’ for everyone to build rapport and be the favorite of the new Quarterback under center. It’s not like seasoned Veteran Alex Smith is looking for his go-to safety blanket anymore. This is a huge positive

Either way, it could be said that Buffalo demanded too much out of him without giving him a stack of support to be the ‘alpha’ and L.A. didn’t set up him up enough to take the mantle or work hard enough to keep him as a Ram for the long term. Except for this year as…

He doesn’t need to be the Alpha –

What’s that old saying; pressure is a privilege? Watkins as a Rookie was the man but I’m not sure he had much of a choice to be anything else. That was a stack of weight to put onto his shoulders especially being Drafted that high as a Rookie. And after a couple of injuries and time away from the turf, you could see that pressure build up for him to get on the field quicker than normal. There is no way that could have helped his short or long term health and we saw his struggles with that.

The beauty of his new scenery is that he comes to a team with the Running Back who lead the league in rushing yards in Kareem Hunt. An elite Tight End with Travis Kelce and a partner in crime with a Wide Receiver in Tyreek Hill who had over 1100 yards receiving last year. He is in a team where the only unknown is second-year Quarterback (yet highly rated) Patrick Mahomes. Everything else is set in place for the Chiefs from 2017 and Watkins will have a defined role carved out for him. We expected the ‘2015 producing Sammy Watkins’ in 2018 with Sean McVay after minimal time to prepare for the season which really was setting our expectations up for him to fail. Although he did still hit…

Paydirt! With all them Touchdowns baby – 

25 TDS in 52 games? That’s not too shabby considering three of those seasons were in a bumbling Buffalo team with half a year down by injury and a preseason interrupted by being traded in 2017. Yes, there is a lot to process there but the reality is Watkins can produce TDS. Now Watkins hasn’t seen over 90 Targets since 2015, but he has done fairly well in terms of a Reception to Touchdown conversion rate. In four years Watkins has had 192 Receptions off of 346 Targets and as I mentioned previously has had a career 25 Touchdowns. That’s one TD every 7.68 Receptions or every 13.83 Targets. In his best season (2015) it was one TD for every 6.6 Receptions. He has the ability to do that when given the opportunity of Volume and we shouldn’t forget that.

All things considered, we know how he was used in Buffalo. But in L.A.? He only saw more than 7 Targets four times and over 9 Targets once with an average of 4.7 Targets per game. 70 Targets and 39 Receptions for 8 TDS? That’s either one TD per 8.75 Targets or every 4.87 Receptions. Although that the Targets and Reception totals don’t seem great, the return on efforts was fantastic. He produced when the Volume wasn’t high. There’s that ‘upside’ again!

Now that we know he can be used efficiently in the End Zone, whether or not he maintains the 70% strike rate carried over from 2017 isn’t the point – the fact that we know he is capable of doing it (after not showing this aspect in Buffalo) shows his evolving game. And, as the reports of ‘moving him all over the field’ reigns as Watkins’ offseason main chatter – we have at least seen him used differently enough to know he can be successful.

Ok, LeFou, stop goofing about! Get to…

The Cons – 

Can he cope by being the second or even third fiddle…

Here’s a weird one for you;

2014 – Fred Jackson; 66 Receptions, Sammy Watkins; 65 Receptions. 2015 – LeSean McCoy; 32 Receptions, Sammy Watkins; 60 Receptions. 2016 – LeSean McCoy; 50 Receptions, Sammy Watkins; 28 Receptions. 2017 – Todd Gurley; 64 Receptions, Sammy Watkins; 39

Once again, I understand that in 2016 he was plagued by injuries and played only eight games, however, he was on track for 56 Receptions only. Now, this still would have been lower (60 Receptions) than what he had in his previous ‘successful’ year in 2015 for the Bills, not to mention the 2.1 Yards Per Reception (YPR) regression that took place. But the trend is that only once has Sammy Watkins had more Receptions than the lead Running Back for whichever team he has played for.

Now how does this fit with Kansas?: Watkins is going to a team where Kareem Hunt also logged 53 Receptions in his Rookie season last year which who knows, may drop off now that Matt Nagy has left the Chiefs and it could be a place where Watkins picks up opportunities. Or it could be seen as a sign of success and they may further exploit safer backfield passes, especially with the return of Spencer Ware and signing of Damien Williams from Miami.

Also, since 2013, the number two Receiver in Kansas averages around 5 Targets per game which is just on par with what he had in L.A. last season (4.7 Targets Per Game). At a career average of 55.7% Catch Rate? That’s on approximately 2.5 Receptions per game or 40 Receptions a Year, also replicative of his 2017 season; this would give us an idea of what opportunity they may give him, which we know last year was at best a WR4. Now to be fair, Watkins has done a lot with a little. Only twice has he had 60 or more Receptions in a season and in that time he logged 1047 yards and 982 yards. At a career average of 15.9 YPR that’s still a floor of 636 Yards on 40 Receptions which is in the WR43-WR46 range in 2017 with the likes of Randall Cobb, DeVante Parker, DeSean Jackson and Danny Amendola. The difference is none of these guys (as 2017 WR4’s) are currently holding a 7th Round ADP like Watkins is.

So, unless you are going Wide Receiver heavy at the start of your draft, can you justify taking Watkins at this rate as your WR4?

Can he keep up the Touchdown Rate…

As I have mentioned before that Watkins had 39 Receptions of 70 Targets last season and he had 8 TDS for the year. And 7 of those TDS came from 10 Targets in the End Zone. There’s is, however, a few problems to overcome. One problem is who the Targets were going to in the same area that Watkins exceeded in last year – the End Zone;

Travis Kelce – 18-10-5TDS / Albert Wilson – 11-5-2TDS / Charcandrick West – 8-3-2TDS / Kareem Hunt – 9-2-2TDS / Demarcus Robinson – 9-2-1TD / Demetrius Harris – 9-2-1TDS

That’s a pretty big problem!

There’s only one cat in Kansas getting the chance in the End Zone and it happens to be their big man Travis Kelce. Eight of Kelce’s TDS came in the same range that Watkins’ did. I (for the life of me) can see no possible way (barring a Kelce injury or suspension) that this would ever change.

However, in a situation like this, you are hoping that Albert Wilson‘s (now in Miami, but you knew that didn’t you!) opportunity share in this field position with 11 Targets in the End Zone swing towards Watkins. I mean let’s face it Watkins did more with less last year so why can’t that happen? The problem would be that 2017 play caller and Offensive Coordinator Matt Nagy has left too. So even if the Targets are there where Watkins showed out to be successful last year, there’s no guarantee that the play called will be replicated again.

There is a wildcard in all of this and that is…

Mahomes, Pat Mahomes – 

So much of Watkins’ output will come down to how Andy Reid uses second-year Quarterback Pat Mahomes. Now Mahomes has had a full year with the team and you’d think he has a fair bit of rapport with Tyreek Hill and the Starters already and we can all safely assume that Watkins has been in the mix since his arrival too. But we really don’t know what to expect from him. Mahomes can use his legs, he can go long. He can play the ‘dink and dunk’ if he has to too. But for what it’s worth, how far you think Mahomes can go with Andy Reid in his year should reflect how you can potentially see how Sammy Watkins can be productive. In terms of Yards last year, Alex Smith (in a career-best season) had 4042 through the air and 65% of that came via Kelce, Hunt, and Hill alone.

Unless we are asking Mahomes to plug over 4000 Yards in what feels like his Rookie season  (which is surely possible) then I think we may be setting the bar a little too high as we start relying on an unknown to project something else that’s unpredictable.

ADP – 

Round 7 is where Sammy Watkins is currently being selected and is one of the reasons behind some of the reluctance behind Drafting him. Or it is currently seen as an absolute bargain depending which side you take. Watkins and his ADP, depending on which side of the fence you sit on. However; Corey Davis, although a Rookie, showed mostly nothing most of the year. Julian Edelman is suspended for a few weeks too and as we know ‘availability is the best ability’. How about Will Fuller? He has more injury concerns than Watkins has and has proved to be as flukey as any other. All these guys are in the same range and I can see the argument for Watkins. The 7th Round for Receivers offers more questions than answers it seems.

But why not wait a few Rounds instead and get Target machine and former teammate Cooper Kupp? Speaking of former teammates, Robert Woods (who also out-produced Watkins with Kupp) is even available in the 9th Round! There is this romance with believing Sammy Watkins is this high-end producing freak and anyone else is just contributing. The fact is the best two Receivers will again play for the Rams this year and the lesser of the trio had to find a new home.

I mentioned Rishard Matthews previously; more Targets and Receptions, more Yards also two seasons straight than Sammy Watkins has had and Matthews has greater value seven Rounds later!

ADP can be fickle and I think what Watkins has (or hasn’t) done is one of the more confusing selections at a Round that early.

PROJECTION –

Targets; 70 / Catch Rate; 64.6% / Receptions; 45 / Yards Per Reception; 14.56 / Yards; 655.2 / TDS; 5 

SUMMARY –

First of all, I have never been burned by Sammy Watkins in Fantasy Football. So at no point has he ever left a bad impression in my mind. He has a highlight reel of plays that have been awesome to watch and the NFL is better when he is out there playing and not sidelined by injury. Since mid-March, I have been finding it extremely hard to get behind Watkins. Here’s why:

Secondly, I want him to succeed. I really do. But part of me feels like his ‘truthers‘ (who are as aggressive with their stance as any current or former player I can remember) kind of put me off – which is unfair to Watkins because that’s clearly not his fault. What bothers me is why do we feel that Watkins is so great as proclaimed, yet the Rams (you know, an actual NFL Organization that we hope knows better than the rest of us…) upgraded with Brandin Cooks (who also holds a 4th Round ADP) and paid him more than what Watkins would have demanded. The fact that Cooks has had an average of 1100 yards and 8 TDS over the last three years could be enough of a reason. But none of the ‘truthers‘ conveniently remember that…

Touchdown regression could also be coming too. Does Watkins regress in the TD department because of Kelce, Hunt, Hill or even Mahomes sneaking a run in as a possibility? Most likely. We know now that he can be effective in the End Zone, but we kind of know the roles of the key players for the Chiefs already. We know what Travis Kelce can do in the End Zone. We know what Tyreek Hill can do in space or one-on-one. And we know Kareem Hunt can break tackles, make hard yards and use his excellent hands out of the backfield. So what role does that leave Watkins? Maybe more time in the slot to get a better chance at receptions like Jarvis Landry? It’s not a bad idea if possible and maybe it could be again an evolution of his game.

What is his actual floor? I can see what Albert Wilson left behind as a respectable floor (62-42-554-3TDS), which TDS aside was about as close to what Watkins did last year in L.A. Do I feel like it can get better? Marginally. But not enough this year to justify where he is going and what his range of outcomes can be.

Final stance…

I’m in the minority here (which is really, really weird for me); Sammy Watkins will again finish as a WR4 in Fantasy Football, ‘upside’ and all.

I started this article off by talking about ‘upside’, but after four seasons and three different teams, I believe it’s time to stop talking about ‘upside’ and start being honest and talking about what he really is. Sammy Watkins IS a great addition for the Kansas City Chiefs and his signing to surround Pat Mahomes with as much talent as possible. This IS as smart a ‘Football Move’ as you can get. Sadly, good ‘Football Moves’ isn’t always great for Fantasy Football. Consistency is key for Watkins, and I think he has a slightly better season than what he did in 2017 which is fine, but simply being ‘fine’ doesn’t justify a 7th Round pick for Sammy Watkins, he would need to fall significantly for me to Draft him in Standard Scoring or PPR formats. He is going to provide you with a few solid weeks and hey he may even be great Starter value for Bye Rounds too. Best-ball and DFS? Sign me up! But over a full season? I’ll pass at that price.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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