QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
2017 Stats (Wyoming): 1,812 pass yds, 16 TD, 6 INT; 204 rush yds, 5 TD
After bursting on the scene (and on the radar of NFL scouts) in 2016, last year was a disappointing follow-up for Allen. With the size and arm strength that makes him a prototype for what an NFL quarterback looks like, Allen still completed just 56.3 percent of his passes and laid eggs against Power 5 schools Iowa and Oregon last year.
But the Buffalo Bills traded into the top-10 of April’s draft, and made Allen the third quarterback taken with the seventh overall pick. They’ve made him earn his way up the depth chart though, with free agent signing A.J. McCarron and 2017 holdover Nathan Peterman also in the mix to start.
Through two preseason games, Allen has gone 18-for-32 for 176 yards with two touchdowns. After he replaced McCarron in Friday night’s game against the Cleveland Browns, Allen led the Bills on three scoring drives. That may have been enough to get him the start in Buffalo’s third preseason game, but McCarron’s injury after a hit from Myles Garrett has opened the door for Allen to win the starting job.
The Buffalo News reported McCarron suffered a hairline fracture of his collarbone. That puts him in line to miss a fair amount of time, and even if McCarron was healthy Allen seems set to overtake him and win the starting job.
#Bills QB AJ McCarron suffered a hairline fracture of the collarbone in the first quarter of tonight's preseason game vs. #Browns, The Buffalo News has learned.
— Vic Carucci (@viccarucci) August 18, 2018
ESPN’s Mike Rodak is pumping the brakes on Allen starting Week 1, but it feels inevitable.
My feeling is it’s too early to consider Josh Allen a “lock” to start Week 1. It’s Sean McDermott’s call, and he has as high of an opinion of Nathan Peterman as anyone and I wouldn’t expect McCarron’s injury to cause McDermott to stray from his “calculated” plan about Allen.
— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) August 18, 2018
If Allen gets the start in the Bills’ third preseason game against the Bengals, that’s a clear sign he will start the season opener. But is that necessarily good news for his immediate fantasy value?
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The Bills lost center Eric Wood and left guard Richie Incognito to retirement, and left tackle Cordy Glenn was traded to the Bengals. So the offensive line is likely to be an issue. Here’s what else Allen has around him.
–LeSean McCoy, an (albeit still good) 30-year old running back whose yards per carry average dropped almost a yard-and-a-half last year. And that leaves out his off the field issue with his ex-girlfriend, which may still bring attention from the league office.
Wide Receivers
– Kelvin Benjamin, who looks and runs more like a tight end.
– Zay Jones, who had a 36.5 percent catch rate as a rookie last year
– Corey Coleman, a former first-round pick the Browns recently traded for a bag of deflated footballs (a 2020 seventh-round pick, actually)
– Jeremy Kerley, who has less than 25 catches in two of the last three seasons
– Rod Streater, who has 28 regular season catches since the start of the 2014 season
– Andre Holmes, who has 41 catches over the last three seasons
Tight end Charles Clay has averaged a little over 52 receptions per season over his three seasons with the Bills, despite missing at least three games in two of the three.
Allen’s outlook in dynasty leagues is not going to be altered by whether or not he’s starting Week 1 this year. There is still not a confirmation from the team regarding McCarron’s injury, as head coach Sean McDermott remains predictably vague. But McCarron has done nothing to win the job, and McDermott’s love affair with Peterman is based on nothing he’s actually done on the field.
Sean McDermott says tests on AJ McCarron are “not totally conclusive” and he is in the process of receiving a second opinion on his shoulder.
— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) August 19, 2018
If he wins the starting job out of the gate, due to McCarron’s injury or a lack of better options, Allen could be worth drafting as a low-end QB2 in deep two-quarterback leagues. But outside of that, he’s waiver wire fodder to start the season in re-draft leagues.
Note: The projection below is, however optimistically, based on 16 games started for Allen.
Josh Allen 2018 Projection: 3,025 pass yds, 16 TD, 12 INT; 275 rushing yds, 2 TD
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