NFL DFS Yahoo Week 4

NFL week 4 is forthcoming. I hope that week 3 was a successful one in terms of Daily Fantasy Sports winnings. I wish to enlighten players of all DFS levels about the Yahoo format. In this article, I will also present a couple of lineup strategies.

Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in most Yahoo contests.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                        1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 points for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. While September is too early to worry about snow games, wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses. Here are the four teams that play Home and Dome in week 4:

Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan ATL, $32 vs CIN

Last week, I advised paying up for QBs in what appeared to be great matchups. Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo both underperformed my expectations. This week, I am selecting QBs that require less investment, enabling to take more expensive options at other positions. Matt Ryan presents the best option at QB without paying the premium. He has a Home and Dome matchup, and he has averaged 35.92 fantasy points during his 2 games in Atlanta this season. This week, the Falcons are tied for the 2nd highest Vegas implied (over/under) point total at 28.5. Ryan should be in a position to put up points.

Joe Flacco BAL, $26 @ PIT

A QB playing outdoor on the road may not be the most advisable pick, but the matchup is very enticing. The Steelers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to QB with 29.19 on average. I am not saying that Joe Flacco is Patrick Mahomes. However, I will write that Flacco’s price ($26) enables DFS players to select a viable QB and still have money left over to spend big at other positions, as we will see below.

 

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara NO, $37 @ NYG

You might not be able to tell based on his fantasy point totals, but Alvin Kamara has failed to score a TD in his last 2 games. He still managed to get 14.9 and 26.5 points respectively. Going up against a Giants defense that has great cornerbacks, Kamara might be the key for the Saints to moving the ball. Last week he was targeted 20 times, the most for any RB in a single game this season. Add in the fact that his price actually dropped this week, and Kamara is practically a must-start.

Melvin Gordon LAC, $34 vs SF

Speaking of RBs who are involved in the passing game, Melvin Gordon is the 3rd most targeted RB so far in 2018. In week 4, he goes up against a 49ers team that just lost their starting QB for the season. It is unlikely that San Francisco scores a ton of points, therefore, the Chargers may prefer to keep the ball on the ground. Even if Philip Rivers throws 30 times like he did last week, I expect Gordon to receive some targets. Furthermore, the Chargers have the 2nd highest implied point total this week (28.5). The only team with a higher over/under in the Chiefs with 30 points. However, because Kansas City plays on Monday night, they are not eligible for the main Yahoo slate.

Saquon Barkley NYG, $32 vs NO

After advising more value picks at RB in week 3, I am changing the tune and saying pay up for production at the position. 2nd overall pick Saquon Barkley has come as advertised for the Giants. While WR Odell Beckham has averaged 13 fantasy points per game in 2018, the offense appears to be flowing through Barkley. The rookie rusher has had at least 20 touches in every game this season. Going against a Saints team with a very strong offense, Barkley will probably be heavy targeted by Eli Manning. It may not be the 16 targets he saw in week 2, but Barkley should be a solid play here in week 4. With smart budgeting at other positions, it is possible to get Barkley in the same lineup as Melvin Gordon and Alvin Kamara.

 

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins HOU, $34 @ IND

How can you get 3 top tier RBs, into your lineup? In order to do that, I would choose not to spend on the high-end WRs and instead focus on the middle-tier players with great matchups. However, if you want to go with a pricy WR, DeAndre Hopkins is the player I would recomend taking. After 2 weeks of being overshadowed by Will Fuller, Hopkins’ price has dropped. It is also Road and Dome game in Indianapolis. The Cotls cornerbacks aren’t particularly potent. Therefore, Hopkins could be in store for a monster stat line. Even Fuller could be a great play, I just prefer taking advantage of Hopkins’ sligthly depressed cost.

 

T.Y. Hilton IND, $21 vs HOU

On the other side of the Texans-Colts game, we find a great value at WR in the form of T.Y. Hilton. This is true even if the Texans are on the lower end of 0.5 PPR fantasy points allowed to WRs (18.97 per game). One of my reasons for choosing Hilton is that the Houston secondary is not as talented as their pass-rush. That and the injuries to other pass-catchers  in Indianapolis means that Colts QB Andrew Luck will  probably look Hilton’s way often on shorter routes. The yards may not be monstrous, but I expect Hilton to get in double-digit receptions and maybe even double his previous season-high (7). With 0.5 points per reception (PPR) as the default setting on Yahoo, Hilton certainly  has the potential to post a big fantasy score.

Jarvis Landry CLE, $20 @ OAK

The Baker Mayfield era has begun for the Browns. Most likely, the biggest beneficiary will be Jarvis Landry. The volume has been there, as Landry has more than a third of his team’s targets so far. With an upgrade at QB (no offense to Tyrod Taylor, but Mayfield was the #1 overall pick) Landry’s efficiency should improve and this might be the week that he finally gets in the end-zone for Cleveland. Their opponent, the Raiders, have allowed the 3rd most 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game to WRs (33.36 points). This may be the last week that Landry’s price will be at $20. I would play him this week and take advantage before the cost rises.

John Brown / Michael Crabtree BAL, $ 17 @ PIT

One of the best stacks in week 4, especially for those looking at contrarian matchups, is Joe Flacco with one of his WRs. Even or the road, the Ravens passing game has a great matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh will probably put up a lot of points on offense which would mean that Baltimore would be passing often. Furthermore, the Steelers defense has not been great, especially against WRs. They have actually allowed the 2nd most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to that position and Baltimore’s top 2 targets should produce. Interestingly enough both John Brown and Michael Crabtree are the same price on Yahoo ($17). This allows DFS players to select the type of player that they want. Perhaps Brown and his big-play potential (18.5 yards per reception so far in 2018) is the more appealing option for some. Others might favor Crabtree and the fact that he currently leads Baltimore in targets. Personally, I would go with Brown, but there is no bad choice here.

 

Tight Ends

Vance McDonald PIT, $12 vs BAL

When selecting TEs, I try to focus on teams that will score a lot of points and have several red-zone trips. Unless you are paying up for Rob Gronkowski, which is a good move this week, most TEs are TD dependant. The Steelers have the 7th highest implied point total at 27. After receiving 5 targets in each of the last two games, it appears that Vance McDonald is beginning to establish himself as Ben Roethlisberger‘s favorite TE. Jesse James only saw 1 target in week 3 even though he played more snaps than McDonald.

David Njoku CLE, $10 @ OAK

A TE option that is even more cost effective than Vance McDonald is David Njoku. With a Yahoo minimum price tag, Njoku allows those that select him the option of maxing out at other positions. Now that Baker Mayfield is the Browns starting QB and that Josh Gordon is no longer on the team, expect Njoku to see an uptake in targets. His price has dropped to $10 and a meeting with the porous Raiders defense could be the last time that Njoku will be a bargain. Play him at this price while that opportunity is exists.

 

Flex RB

Tevin Coleman ATL, $23 vs CIN

A QB-RB stack to have this week is Matt Ryan with Tevin Coleman. Vegas projects them to have the 2nd highest point total this week (tied with the Chargers) with 28.5. By having both Ryan and Coleman in the same lineup, you can almost guarantee that any Falcons TD will count towards your point total. At only $23, Coleman gives fantasy players a chance to have a productive RB, on a top-tier offense, while paying less than full price (i.e. $37 for Alvin Kamara).

Giovani Bernard CIN, $20 @ ATL

The other team in Bengals-Falcons matchup, also has a solid option at RB. Giovani Bernard has been trust into a bigger role since the Cincinnati starter suffered an injury. In week 3, he responded with 17.1 fantasy points. I expect Bernard to be even more productive this week. Atlanta actually gives up the 4th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game to RBs with 23.4. They have also allowed the most receptions to RBs this season. This scenario plays into Bernard’s strengths. He has 10 receptions so far, tying him for 16th among RBs in 2018. That number should augment after Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

Flex WR

Geronimo Allison GB, $ 13 vs BUF

Last week, while looking for a value play at WR, I suggeested Calvin Ridley. That worked out pretty well as he scored 3 TDs. This week, a player in that price range with that kind of potential is Geronimo Allison. Yes, the Bills defense came up big last week against the Vikings, forcing Kirk Cousins to fumble twice and throw an INT. It may have been a mix of Minnesota not being entirely prepared as well as the fact that they were more fatigued than usual coming off of an OT game. The other team in that contest was the Green Bay Packers who had their own problems in week 3. One player who did produce for the Packers was Allison who has scored 2 TDs so far in 2018. Allison is actually leading Green Bay in receiving yards even though he is only 4th on the team in targets. This demonstrates his big-play ability that can make him a useful play in DFS against Buffalo who was gashed by WRs in weeks 1 and 2.

Jakeem Grant MIA, $10 @ NE

Looking at value WRs, Jakeem Grant is arguably the most explosive player at the minimum $10 amount. With only 10 total touches so far this season, he has produced 145 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs. Grant is super efficient and he faces a Patriots defense that has allowed the 7th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game to WRs. With Kenny Stills the most likely Dolphin to get extra attention from defenses, there may be spaces for Grant to get open and use his speed.

 

Defense

Chicago Bears $17 vs TB

The Bears defense has scored at least 13 fantasy points in every game this season. While that included a defensive TD in each of the first two games, last week the Bears did it due to 3 INTs. In week 4, they presumably face QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, someone known to turn the ball over. Even if Jameis Winston does start the game, he himself is prone to throwing INTs. This productive stretch for the Chicago defense should continue.

Los Angeles Chargers $13 vs SF

Sometimes there is a perfect defensive matchup. The Chargers defense saw their price drop last week when they faced the high-powered Rams offense. Since they did not perform well, the Chargers’ price remained at $13. This week, they face the 49ers who just lost their starting QB for the season. In their first week after that loss, San Francisco may not play well. The Chargers defense makes for a great stack with Melvin Gordon at RB.

 

Thank you for reading. May fortune favor your fantasy football in week four. Do not divide Going for 2 from your DFS preparations.

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