10 Things to Know for Week 9 #FantasyFootball

The Ravens are quickly heading to a three-back committee.

The Ravens traded for Packers’ running back Ty Montgomery just before the trade deadline this week. Initially, it seems like an odd trade since the Ravens already have Javorius Allen and Alex Collins. Collins was already a sell high considering most of his fantasy production was coming off of touchdowns and he was splitting goal-line work with Allen. Now it seems like Allen’s pass-catching role could be in jeopardy. Regardless this is bad for all parties involved so if you can sell high on Collins or Allen after this week before Montgomery is fully involved do it.

Aaron Jones played over 60% of snaps in Week 8.

I just talked about the Ty Montgomery trade and by far the biggest beneficiary is Jones for the Packers. We have all wanted the Packers to commit to Jones as their lead back and it looks like they decided to give that a try this past week. He had 12 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown along with two receptions. Double-digit carries are all you need in an Aaron Rodgers led offense to be fantasy relevant. Montgomery being gone solidifies the Packers two back committee making Jones an RB2 going forward.

Golden Tate was handling 27% of the Lion’s target share.

A player having above 20% of a team’s target share usually signifies they are the WR1 for the team. Tate was handling 27% which is led him to be top 10 in total targets for the entire league. The Lions Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones obviously get a bump, but the Lions are going to have someone else fill those coveted slot targets. Maybe it’s TJ Jones. Maybe they can use Theo Riddick in the slot with Kerryon Johnson handling most running back work. Time will tell, but that is a huge target share to open up in the middle of the season. Tate is likely a low-end WR2 on the Eagles with Alshon Jeffrey and Zach Ertz being the top targets on the team.

The only thing keeping Courtland Sutton from being the best rookie wide receiver of the year is Case Keenum.

Sutton was my favorite wide receiver in the draft this past year. Now Demaryius Thomas is not on the Broncos and Sutton can be unleashed. We’ve seen the chemistry between him and Keenum at spots during the year. Now Sutton should have the snaps and targets to be fantasy relevant. He could end up being a WR2 for the rest of the year and this week gets a banged up Houston defense that just gave up 41 points to the wide receiver position to the Miami Dolphins this past week.

DeShaun Watson averages 13 points more per game with Will Fuller in the lineup.

Losing Fuller is a big deal for DeShaun Watson fantasy value and the offense as a whole. Watson averages 30 points per game with Fuller and 17 without him. The Texans traded for Demaryius Thomas to fill in as their WR2, but Thomas just doesn’t seem to have the same ability as he used to. I would try to trade Thomas on the hype if you can, and Keke Coutee would be the guy I am more interested in. Coutee will fill the slot role where he has played well, and Hopkins will continue to be the WR1 he always is.

The Seahawks are the only team to not give up a QB1 performance all season.

The Seahawks’ defense has been surprisingly good given how many pieces they lost in the offseason. They are shutting down opposing QBs including guys like Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. This week they get Philip Rivers who is a borderline QB1 on the year. If you have another option I would continue sitting Rivers this week and Keenan Allen would be the only receiving weapon I’d want to play if you can avoid Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams.

The Panthers scored more points on the Ravens defense than anyone this year.

Norv Turner’s offense in Carolina has looked great all year. The Ravens seemed like a tough matchup last week, but the Panthers main fantasy contributors all had good fantasy days. In Week 9 they get the Buccaneers who have given up the most QB1 and TE1 performances and the second most WR1 performances. They are actually decent against the running back position, but it is because teams know they can pass on them and don’t need to run. Christian McCaffrey is used enough in the passing game to also get involved in the action. Rookie D.J. Moore even has some flex appeal this week given all the teams on bye.

The Rams and Saints game opened with a 59 point over/under.

That is the highest over/under I have seen all year which somewhat surprises me. The Saints defense has turned it on lately giving up 18, 19, 23, and 20 points over the past four weeks. The Packers also gave somewhat of a blueprint on slowing down the Rams for three-quarters last week. The Packers were one Aaron Rodgers clutch two-minute comeback from beating the Rams. The Saints have a better team than the Packers and I do think this will be a high scoring game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if only one team scores 30 points this week. Cooper Kupp has the best matchup against Saints slot corner P.J. Williams if he returns from injury.

The Bills and the Bears have the lowest over/under with 37 points of the week.

This game should be a Jordan Howard game. There is no reason the Bills should score any points and the Bears should be able to run out the clock. The Bills defense has been good and could limit the Bears as well. You have to play Tarik Cohen, but Howard should be a play as well. Trey Burton is an okay play as well, but he is likely a touchdown or bust candidate. Nathan Peterman is expected to start at QB for the Bills so the best fantasy player might be the Bears defense in this game.

Sammy Watkins thrives when Tyreek Hill sees less than six targets in a game.

These are Watkins stat lines in the three games Hill has seen less than six targets in the game. Week 2: 6 RECs, 100 YDs, 0 TDs, Week 3: 5 RECs, 55 YDs, 1 TD, Week 8: 8 RECs, 107 YDs, 2 TDs. The Chiefs use Watkins more when Hill is not having the best day. Hill now has a groin injury and if he misses time or is banged up Watkins could become a great fantasy WR. The offense as a whole might take a small dip because of opposing defenses having to respect Hill’s speed, but if Watkins is utilized more that may not matter.

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