The Pros And Cons Of Week 10 (#FantasyFootball)

Someone smart once taught me ‘proper planning prevents poor performance’. That was all well and good until I started Derek Carr and benched George Kittle last week…

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% certain I followed the process > results protocol last week with the above statement! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience, I couldn’t have been happier to see Allen Hurns score on Monday Night Football after declaring him in ‘purgatory’ – I couldn’t have been more wrong apparently; but we fight on and I am still looking forward to addressing Week 10 with you. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you will be based on the Pros and Cons of players or scenarios the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into future fixtures for your matchups.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

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Can you blame me? No, really – can you blame me?

I mean some second-year undrafted free agent Quarterback named Nick Mullens from Southern Mississippi gets the starting job (after being promoted off the practice squad no less) over C.J. Beathard due to injury and I am meant to believe he is going to destroy the Oakland Raiders and eat Derek Carr‘s soul as he did!? Seriously, Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook, Martavis Bryant, Doug Martin, and Jalen Richard couldn’t put up squat over this guy?! No, I took the Quarterback (you know, the actual pro?!) of the team who I thought may get the advantage of turnovers from a guy making his debut who had half his team in doubt due to injury ON A SHORT WEEK of all things and this guy turns up and sets up George Kittle (4-4-108-1) for a monster day while Derek Carr couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat?! Really?!

The process was right. The result was very, very wrong.

That’ll never happen again, Oakland, I am done with you for another two seasons. Come back to me when Nevada is your new home.

Done.

Anyways…before we move onto the meat and veg of the of the article…

Did you know…

• That Marquez Valdes-Scantling has averaged 6.75 Targets over the past four weeks (with a 10 Target high game) with at worst a 45-yard game, and 2 Touchdowns in that period also. And during that span, he has collected two 100 yard games? Now his next month is rough, I won’t lie, as the Packers face respectable and tough Defenses against the Pass like Arizona, Miami, Seattle, and Minnesota. However, his (and by his I mean yours) Fantasy Schedule for the Playoffs is enticing. A home game against Atlanta and a matchup against Chicago in Week 15 could see him have big games when you need him to the most. What’s great about all this is that Green Bay averages roughly 300 Passing Yards a game, with about 100 Yards on the ground Rushing per game and while Ty Montgomery finds himself in Baltimore at the Trade Deadline, Geronimo Allison injured (groin) and Randall Cobb struggling to find fitness and form there is a huge chance for ‘MVS’ to carve out a huge role as the number two Receiver in an Aaron Rodgers lead Offense. Get on him!
• Tyrell Williams has had 4 Touchdowns in his last three games? And that in two of those games, he had over 100 Yards also? Now, doing that off minimal Targets is one thing, but here is what I find crazy; (via statroute.com) Tyrell Williams (who went mainly undrafted in Fantasy this year) has 0.35 Fantasy points less than Keenan Allen so far this year (who mainly went in the second-to-third rounds in Fantasy this year) has a higher ‘ceiling’ than Allen (19.50 points to 15.90 points) and a higher ‘floor’ (3.50 points to 1.70 points) than Allen also. Tyrell Williams, generally, is still considered a ‘Flex’ position at best, while Allen is a certain starter. What’s cool about that is, yep, you guessed it! The Chargers schedule – more on that later!
• That we sang hallelujah this week as Tevin Coleman finally (FINALLY!!!) saw more than 4 Targets in a game since Week 2. Can you believe that?! Feels like that should be his absolute floor. Is it a coincidence that this happened the same week that Julio Jones got his first Touchdown? I don’ think s….yeah it probably is. I’ll stop trying to make ‘fetch’ happen. My bad…

So, the Playoff and Wildcard race is alive and well and there are a few teams I have spoken about of late that are making a case to be considered more than such.

Most divisions look to have a clear leader, and a few look like there are could be some changes. I’m not sure how many people thought Chicago would be running the top of the table in the North but Green Bay and Detroit (who play Chicago this week) are both only 2 wins behind. Washington is yet to play the Eagles and see them twice from Week 13 on, and even a loss this past Monday shouldn’t see the Cowboys who are third in the Division written off just yet, as they are also two games off the top spot and are yet to play the Eagles also, who is still just the one game ahead of Dallas and they meet this Sunday Night. It’s tight, but someone will emerge.

Quietly the L.A. Chargers are 6-2, but the significance of it is what? The fact that Caleb Sturgis missed three shots at goal is one thing, but of the years gone past this is the sort of game that they would have coughed up because of terrible field goal attempts and it is the cheap losses as such that has had the playoffs elude them. Outside of Cleveland and Minnesota are there any teams that have had the (bad) luck that the Chargers have had off of the boot? Probably not. The crazy thing is this: they have done it without star pass rusher Joey Bosa and Tight End Hunter Henry, both of which they hope to get back before the end of the regular season. 

The Chargers are only two games behind Kansas and don’t play them again until Week 15. And over the next month, the Chargers have away games against (in no specific order) at Oakland, and Pittsburgh with home games against Denver, Cincinnati and Arizona. Each game is extremely winnable and could see them as the Top seeded Wildcard unless something goes terribly wrong.

Speaking of making a run; I mentioned the Falcons a few weeks ago as a team who had to win four games straight to get to a 5-4 record (after being 1-4) to be a shot at hitting the Playoffs. Currently, Atlanta won three straight to hit up a .500 record and see an away trip in Cleveland this week. Hey, I don’t want to say I told you so, but hey… They can look at a desperate Dallas, Baltimore, and Arizona at home, with Green Bay and New Orleans away over the next month too, there is no reason that the Falcons can’t be a 9-5 team at worst during that span. They are currently a game behind Minnesota and hold the same record as Seattle and Philadelphia. The Falcons, with their brutal injury list on the Defensive side of things, are getting by on the Kansas motto of ‘the best form of Defense is your Offense’, however, they did just pick up Bruce Irvin (a former first-round pick by Seattle) who was cut from Oakland (shocker that they cut another ‘Captain’) this week to help patch up the Defensive side of the ball.

Just like the Steelers coming off their Bye a few weeks ago, the Cincinnati Bengals look better as those around them fell. Incredible how that happens sometimes…or just in the AFC North (Baltimore have a Bye this week, let’s see if they can jump Cincinnati should the Bengals falter this weekend). The Bengals have come off the Bye without A.J. Green due to an injury to his toe. But during that Bye week, the Ravens copped another loss and Miami look stagnant who are the other ‘top’ Wildcard seed at 5-4. But it seems like both teams are stumbling to the final playoff spot behind the Chargers. Both the Colts and the Jaguars (who face off this weekend) are sitting at 3-5 behind the 4-4 Titans – so the South is looking like there’s a wild card spot available (if any of them can get out of their own way); unless Cincinnati can get their act together with home games against the Saints, Browns, and the Broncos along with crucial away games to Baltimore and the Chargers.

Ok @TheBLeagueSays, I’m back after a week off – you have to be kidding me with this garbage! As if the Chargers won’t choke, the Bengals won’t implode or Matty Ice won’t turn into his previous Matty Ice Cold. Stop it, you clown. Get on with…

THE PROS

Got air…? 

Teams who have allowed the most Yards against opposition Quarter Backs are Kansas (303 Yards Per Game/YPG, 2724 Yards conceded for the year), Cleveland (285 YPG, 2565 Yards conceded for the year), Cincinnati (319 YPG, 2555 Yards conceded for the year): The most common denominators are: Baltimore, Denver, L.A. Chargers. 

Remember how I said the race for a Playoff and Wild Card spot was hot? All of these teams are still in the hunt and all three of these teams have extremely valuable Fantasy Football assets to try and get your hands on.

Take the Quarterbacks. Philip Rivers (85.7% rostered on ESPN) is a starter every week to me – that’s non-negotiable. But Joe Flacco (29.8% rostered on ESPN) and Case Keenum (10.9% rostered on ESPN) are sitting there on your Waiver Wire unless you’re in a 2QB, Super-Flex, 8-Man Bench then it’s likely they are just hanging about in the happy land of Free Agency. Now if you can afford the stash, this could be a sneaky play in a few weeks time because for those yards to matter, then they’re going to needs guys on their team who have…

Sticky fingers…

Now I understand that Denver is in a weird spot right now. They’re clearly not out of the Playoff picture, but it feels like they are telling us otherwise. I absolutely get moving Demaryius Thomas on – if he isn’t in your plans then sure get something for him and with the Trade Deadline which approached pretty quick, I can see why they wanted something for an over 30-year-old Receiver. And they have the cattle to fill his role, Courtland Sutton has looked good in his Rookie year and my gut feeling says Emmanuel Sanders is next to go. But that second Wildcard slot is up for grabs and they don’t seem interested to try and get it.

Denver has a hell of a run from Week 13 with away games at Cincinnati (319.4 Yards against per game) and San Francisco (248.9 Yards against per game) with Cleveland at home in Week 15 (285 Yards against per game) and Oakland away in Week 16, which is Grand Final week for most (262.6 Yards against per game). As a selling point in a trade, this could be huge to know. So if you can afford to hold onto these guys for a week as they are on the Bye then Sanders, Sutton, Phillip Lindsay or hey, even Jeff Heuerman you’ll have to sit tight or get creative and look to move on in a trade and upgrade a position of need. Or alternatively, try and target these guys if there is a team in your league that may be struggling and you are trying to make a push.

Baltimore has a trio of Wide Receivers, and about 87 Tight Ends that you could look at moving forward. But because I have a life, I am going to stick to Receivers. Here’s why. All five teams that they play against are in the bottom 10 for Passing Yards per Game. Over the next five games Baltimore sees Cincinnati (32nd) and Oakland (24th) at home, then Atlanta (29th) and Kansas (28th) away with Tampa (30th) at home in Week 15.  John Brown is currently the WR22 (on ESPN) and is rostered in 78.6% of leagues. Willie Snead is the WR34 (on ESPN) and is the least rostered of the trio at 22.1% (Michael Crabtree is the WR31, yet is rostered on 82.5% of teams). And, just like Denver mentioned above, Baltimore is on their Bye this week and (as mentioned above) could all be sold on the premise of an amazing schedule coming up OR could be traded for if a team is concerned about either of these players because (let’s face it) no one trusts Joe Flacco or Case Keenum.

The L.A. Chargers (I actually had them going to the Superbowl against the New Orleans Saints at the start of the year, so as an NY Giants fan I will be riding them into the ground – apologies in advance) have a really good run. You can add them into this mix of really good schedules coming up, with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Kansas in their future also. Week 16 vs Baltimore at home could be brutal for both teams but still, if it means securing a Playoff position I’d have to think both teams will not hold back. Tyrell Williams is only 33.9% rostered on ESPN and is the WR32 for the year. So, I mean in 10 team leagues why is that guy not rostered? That’s a Flex position at worst or a respectable Bench spot for a guy with a good schedule coming up. Mike Williams is the WR49 and is 25.1% rostered and he has the same upside that Tyrell Williams has. Dez Bryant (who up until yesterday wasn’t even on a team, and just signed with the New Orleans Saints) is 64.4% rostered and hasn’t caught a ball all year and came into camp ‘about 5lbs overweight’ according to new coach Sean Payton (although he did tear his Achilles today so that may not help many going forward). But the argument of ‘but he has Drew Brees‘ is fine – but these guys also have Philip Rivers and I can’t help think that these Chargers Receivers right now are healthy, in routine and in sync with their Quarterback. And why they haven’t been picked up is beyond me.

Go get them!

I have a fixin’ for a Mixon…

Teams who have allowed the most Yards against opposition Running Backs are Cleveland (138.9 YPG, 1250 Yards conceded for the year), Miami (136.1 YPG, 1225 Yards conceded for the year), Denver (131.6 YPG, 1184 Yards conceded for the year): The most common denominator is Cincinnati with two matchups in this period of time with Cleveland and Denver. This is great for Joe Mixon drafters! What makes matters even better for Mixon is that they see Cleveland again in the Fantasy Football Playoffs at Cleveland in Week 16. But…do want me to make it sound even better? In Week 15 the Bengals are at home to the woeful Oakland Raiders, who have the fourth most Yards conceded on the year with 1156 total and 144.5 YPG. That’s four of the worst Run Defenses over the next seven weeks. Compounded with an injured A.J. Green with a toe injury which has sidelined before and with limited options at Receiver John Ross and C.J. Uzomah I can imagine that the Bengals lean on Mixon a lot more than normal.

So. Now’s the time to add a small bit of dirt on this…

As we know that Joe Mixon has had the odd issue with knee injuries AND Giovani Bernard just so happens to be returning from a similar injury, now is the time to be buying both as soon and as much as possible. On the ground, this I feel is the league winner who won’t cost us as much as guys like Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Saquon Barkley and James Conner running amok nor will Mixon get the same attention the others will either. Mixon is currently 11th amongst Running Backs for yards with 509 yards (the same amount of yards as Saquon Barkley) and in three fewer games has only 53 less Receiving Yards than Phillip Lindsay – which people tend to overlook.

So. No A.J. Green, a weak schedule. How long do we think the RB13 for the year stays outside the Top 10 Running Backs this year? And the beauty of this scenario is that the Bengals are not clear of anyone for a Wildcard spot and have to keep moving forward so Baltimore doesn’t catch up. I can’t imagine they would look to bench Mixon unless they’re blowing teams away but even then, can they really afford to take their foot off the pedal while being in the bottom three this year in passing yards against? I’d doubt it…

Really? Really @TheBLeagueSays, getting the stats out this week and telling us that Joe Mixon, John Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are good trade targets. Really? Yeah, well at least you have a good head of hair to fall back on. At least get on with…

THE CONS

Teams who have allowed the least amount of Yards to opposition Quarterbacks are Jacksonville 190 Yards Per Game, Detroit 215 Yards Per Game, and Dallas 217 Yards Per Game. The most common denominators are Indianapolis, Buffalo, and Washington.

Do we have to…?

So, I’m going to be a jerk and just write off anything Buffalo right now. They face Jacksonville and Detroit during the next few weeks. The best case scenario is that Josh Allen returns and rushes for 50 Yards and Touchdown each week. Nate Peterman is trash. Just let them go, Elsa, let them go.

But do you feel Lucky? Well? Do ya…?

The Colts have a brutal schedule up ahead but Andrew Luck has been playing out of his freakin’ mind and looks to have the health of Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton trending in the right direction too. And hey, Luck even made Eric Ebron a thing this year didn’t he! But they see five teams in the Top 15 for giving away the least amount of yards in the air. The Jaguars (Ranked 1st) twice, Dallas (Ranked 5th), the Titans (Ranked 7th) twice, the Texans (Ranked 15th), the Giants (Ranked 9th) and Miami. So yes, Luck has better players coming back and yes their run game and Offensive Line are light years better than last season but this schedule for Luck is not ideal. Approach the rest of the season with caution.

Washington just lost half of their Offensive Line, and Paul Richardson for the season after last week and on top of that Chris Thompson has already been ruled out for Week 10 – Kapri Bibbs, fire him up! Alex Smith has seen his Yards Per Attempt drop drastically since his last year in Kansas and Jordan Reed is there, but, not really…and Josh Doctson couldn’t catch a cold either. Oh, and umm… is Jamison Crowder going to be a thing again next offseason? Because that’s two years in a row that I think I’ve seen him at the cinema more times than in the End Zone this year (no, I didn’t actually really see him at the cinema…it was sarcasm…a poor attempt at it, but you’ll live). I mean last years hype was serious but Alex Smith joining forces with him had everyone in raptures. Next year, please no more ‘Jamison Crowder Breakout Year’ talk again, yeah? The Redskins see a similar rough schedule as the Colts, with Houston (Ranked 15th), Philadelphia, Dallas (Ranked 5th) and New York (Ranked 9th) in successive weeks, with Jacksonville (Ranked 1st) and Tennessee (Ranked 7th) in the Fantasy Playoffs. So, the Offensive Line to buy Alex Smith time to make a pass got increasingly worse, Smith’s Receivers got worse and/or they aren’t available/existent. Alex Smith has ok wheels on him so the rushing yards may be there. But even this week away at Tampa – which should be a high scoring game – feels like a trap game. Actually feels like a trap season…

Stay down…

Teams who have allowed the least amount of Yards or Touchdowns to opposition Running Backs are New Orleans (76.8 YPG /  8 TDS). The Saints haven’t conceded multiple Touchdowns on the ground since Week 5 when Alex Smith and Kapri Bibbs got over the line. They have some formidable Running Backs on their horizon coming up like Joe Mixon (this week, be patient with him for one more week – the good run of games is coming), Tevin Coleman, Ezekiel Elliot, Christian McCaffrey, and John Conner – all of which are in the upper echelon (or at least more than capable) of their position in the receiving game also. This past week the Rams Defence kept Todd Gurley to 11 Yards off of 6 Targets where previously Gurley had averaged 43.87 YPG Receiving (with 4 Touchdowns too). So even if there is a dual threat Running Back in their schedule, there should be some concern.

Chicago (85 YPG / 1 TD) have been fantastic on the ground this year by only allowing 1 rushing Touchdown all season. Wanna know who it was? Here is a list of names that could have done so but failed: Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson were the only likely Quarterbacks that could have, but didn’t. What about the rest of the field? Here’s who it was not: not Jamaal Williams, not Chris Carson, not David Johnson, no Peyton Barber, not Kenyan Drake or Frank Gore, not Sony Michel or James White, not Isaiah Crowell, not LeSean McCoy, not Chris Ivory. None of them.

I’ll give you a hint. It was in Week 9 last week. To Nate Peterman. You know the Buffalo ‘Quarterback’ who can’t throw a ball for his life? Yeah, he was the only person this year to rush for a Touchdown against Chicago.

Nate. Peterman.

So I guess I can’t hate on Buffalo too much. They have this to hang their hats on this year, right?

Help! I need somebody, Help…

Teams who have allowed the least amount of Yards or Touchdowns to opposition Receivers are Jacksonville 9 (206.8 Yards Per Game) and Arizona (9 Touchdowns conceded). I’ve mentioned before about Jacksonville and how they have allowed minimal Passing Yards to Quarterbacks so, naturally, that doubles down for those Receivers that they face and that common denominator for them were the Colts and the Redskins. Now, I’m not going to tell you to sit T.Y. Hilton but if you can find a buyer for him that may not be a bad idea. And unless you are in deeper leagues the chances of you being forced to play Chester Rogers or Ryan Grant at this time of the league may mean you are more unlucky than you realize. The same goes for Washington. If you can get to the playoffs with ANY of their Receivers you should be the one writing an article and not me – and I’d be fine with that too.

But Jacksonville will give some people fits come Fantasy Playoff time when in Week 14 they are at Tennessee, home to Washington in Week 15 and away at Miami in Week 16. Now, I have no idea what state any of those three teams will be in by that time of the year. Maybe, just maybe the Titans are still in the playoff picture but even still, the Jaguars would be too and I can’t imagine in Week 1 of the Playoffs you will be happy to roll out Corey Davis or any Miami Receiver in Grand Final Week.

The Cardinals have been Fantastic defending the air and why wouldn’t they? They’re Cardinals…cough…

Sorry.

But for a team to be 2-6 to only have conceded 9 Touchdowns for the season? That’s just, well, crazy when you think about it. And to make it sounds crazy…er I want you to consider this. In Week 2 the Cardinals went into L.A. and got smoked 34-0. Jared Goff threw 1 Touchdown pass on the day. Not to Robert Woods. Not to Brandin Cooks. It was to Cooper Ku… No, it was to Tyler Higbee on a 3-yard pass. That is one of the most high powered, aerial offenses in the league and it was a Tight End who they barely use that got the Receiving score.

Now in the Fantasy Playoffs they see Detroit at home in Week 14 (hello Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr), in Week 15 Atlanta away (who could be in the final phases of clinching that Wildcard place), and have the Rams at home in Week 16 (and how many of their starters will be kitted up that week, I can’t tell you). I’m not telling you to move any of these guys on. Julio Jones? No, not at all. Cooper Kupp? Not a chance. The price for the elite has to be better than what’s required because bonafide studs are probably an exception to the rule. But Arizona in the air aren’t allowing squat and you need to be aware of this now, and prepare for it to be a reality later, so that in Week 15 if you’re looking a Mohumad Sanu and someone else – maybe someone else is a better option.

PROJECTIONS

All projections are for the respective Players ceiling

Joe Mixon vs New Orleans: Carries; 18.75 / Yards Per Carry; 4.12 / Yards; 77.25 / TDS; 1 / Targets; 6 / Receptions; 5 / Yards Per Reception; 6.16 / Yards; 30.8 / TDS; 1

Alex Smith @ Tampa: 33 Attempts / 23 Completions at 70.46% Completion Rate / 10.26 Yards Per Completion for 236 Total Passing Yards / 2 Passing TD / 4 Carries / 15 Yards Rushing

T.Y. Hilton @ Jacksonville: Targets; 8 /  Catch Rate; 56% / Receptions; 4.48 / YPC; 14.94 / Yards; 66.93 / TDS; 1

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SUMMARY

Look. A lot of what I say is tongue in cheek and a lot is said is with numbers, analysis, and research behind it too. It’s easier said than done to acquire Joe Mixon. It’s also not hard to go and grab Case Keenum too. With your team, and who you have available is more important than what I say for example if you have Philip Rivers are you really going out of your way to get Case Keenum? That’s a no. If you have Todd Gurley and James Conner are you really going out of your way to get Joe Mixon? Probably not. If Tyrell Williams is sitting there on the Waiver Wire and you have a Top 30 Receiver like Marvin Jones Jr are you going to drop one to add the other. No.

I’m just saying that over the next few weeks leading into the Fantasy Playoffs there is an opportunity for some teams and players to take advantage of a favorable schedule and adversely there are teams and players who have rough Playoff matchups too. And you know that.

All I’m saying is that now is the time to be as proactive as you can by taking note of these matchups and how some of these guys are tracking. There is that opportunity within these matchups for some guys to be your diamonds in the rough and hey who knows – Willie Snead could be that guy just sitting there right now on your Waiver Wire without a home that could be the point of difference you need to seal a Championship this year.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. Set your lineups accordingly and check out the DFS and Weekly Content all the hard-working staff is pumping out to get you best prepared. Also – download the Going For 2 app, then and rate, review and share with your loved ones. You all deserve it!

You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

(Stats via statroute.com, espn.com)

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