NFL DFS Week 5 Battle Analysis By @Infantryboys For 10/11

Every week during the NFL season, I’m going to be presenting a “battle analysis” for the week’s slate of games. I’ll be giving you my best plays of the week and why I think they’re the best values. If you’re coming over from season long fantasy football and you’re new to DFS, you’ll want to check out my article “The Ten Commandments of NFL Daily Fantasy Sport.” Remember, DFS isn’t about targeting stars, it’s about targeting VALUE. I’ll also be letting you know why I’m avoiding, or “fading” some popular players.

My top targets of the week will be presented in two categories. I stole this terminology from my days in the Army. First there are the 50 meter targets. These players represent the safest plays and best value of the week. Secondly there will also be my 300 meter targets. These players still represent good value but are more “hit or miss” than the 50 meter targets. Generally speaking, 300 meter targets are best reserved for tournaments only.

You’ll see I’ve presented stats for both teams in every contest. These are weighted stats from Football Outsiders, rather than just generic team averages. I strongly suggest using Football Outsiders in your research as well. I’ve begun using 2015 stats this week, because the sample size is large enough to be relevant.

LEGEND:

50M TARGETS

Best value and safest targets on the slate. These players make good cash and tournament plays.

300M TARGETS

Good value and high upside, but can be “boom or bust.” These players are best used in tournaments.

 

 

CHICAGO @ KANSAS CITY

Vegas – O/U – 46.5; Kansas City – 10

CHICAGO

2015 wDef – 31st, Pass D – 29th, Run D – 27th

2015 wOff – 25th, Pass O – 26th, Run O – 17th

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is allowing 397 yards per game, 295 of them being through the air. They currently are the #1 defense when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears passing game options are reasonably priced and definitely in play against this defense. Be sure to check Jeffrey’s status, though. The Bears are huge underdogs, so the passing game options should benefit from positive game flow as well.

Matt Forte has had two nice games and two duds this season. He’s marginally in play against a Chief’s defense giving up over 100 yards a game, but with a reduced role in the passing game and the expected to be behind, he’s not high on my radar at his price.

50M TARGETS

Martellus Bennett ($5,900 FD; $5,000 DK)

300M TARGETS

Alshon Jeffrey ($7,600 FD; $6,500 DK)

Jay Cutler ($7,400 FD; $5,300 DK)

KANSAS CITY

2015 wDef – 29th, Pass D- 30th, Run D – 17th

2015 wOff – 14th, Pass O – 25th, Run O – 7th

The Bears defense hasn’t been that good this season, giving up 309 yards a game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been pretty good at gaining yards and pretty bad at getting the ball into the end zone, except in garbage time. The exception is Jeremy Maclin, who has developed a nice chemistry with Alex Smith and has become the #1 option in the passing game. Jamaal Charles is overpriced for the game.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Jeremy Maclin ($6,900 FD; $6,000 DK)

 

SEATTLE @ CINCINNATI

Vegas – O/U – 44.5; Cincinnati – 1

SEATTLE

2015 wDef – 7th, Pass D – 15th, Run D – 15th

2015 wOff – 10th, Pass O – 24th, Run O – 10th

Cincinnati has one of the better defenses in the NFL and the Seattle offense has not been hitting on all cylinders, due mostly to very inconsistent line play. Marshawn Lynch is out and the rest of the offense suffers when the running game is struggling. I’m going to have to see a lot more from this offense before I feel comfortable rostering any Seattle players.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

CINCINNATI

2015 wDef – 10th, Pass D- 12th, Run D – 6th

2015 wOff – 3rd, Pass O – 1st, Run O – 2nd

The Bengals, especially Andy Dalton, have been a pleasant surprise this season. Dalton, who has averaged 22.5 FanDuel points a game, faces a very good Seattle defense, but they’re not as good on the road as they are at home. Dalton makes for a nice tournament play that should be very low owned.

The Bengals running game has been terribly inconsistent this season. Jeremy Hill has been a particular disappointment after a great rookie season.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Andy Dalton ($7,300 FD; $5,700 DK)

 

WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA

Vegas – O/U – 47.5; Atlanta – 7.5

WASHINGTON

2015 wDef –  19th, Pass D – 21st, Run D – 7th

2015 wOff – 23rd, Pass O – 11th, Run O – 22nd

Atlanta sports an impressive 4-0 record, but it’s defense certainly hasn’t been responsible for the fast start. Atlanta has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and after a couple of quiet weeks, Alfred Morris became the bell cow back again last week. At his price across the industry, he’s an attractive tournament play.

The Falcons secondary hasn’t been terrible this year, but at his price, Kirk Cousins makes for an intriguing GPP play. Cousins had 290 yards and a touchdown last week and game flow dictates that he should be throwing most of the game. Pierre Garcon leads the Redskins in targets and should see a slight bump with Jordan Reed sidelined with another concussion. Alfred Morris is a Draft Kings special.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Pierre Garcon($6,200 FD; $5,300 DK)

Kirk Cousins ($6,400 FD; $5,300 DK)

Alfred Morris ($6,300 FD; $4,000 DK)

ATLANTA

2015 wDef – 26th, Pass D- 17th, Run D – 23rd

2015 wOff – 4th, Pass O – 5th, Run O – 3rd

After their hot start, most of the Falcons offensive players have seen their salaries shoot through the roof. While many will probably have good games, their salaries make them risky propositions to hit value against a good Washington defense. The exception is Leonard Hankerson, the former Redskin receiver, who has supplanted Roddy White as the Falcons #2 receiver. While game flow will probably work against him, his price and recent production make him an intriguing tournament option.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Leonard Hankerson ($6,000 FD; $4,000 DK)

Julio Jones ($9,200 FD; $9,200 DK)

Matt Bryant ($4,800 FD)

 

JACKSONVILLE @ TAMPA BAY

Vegas – O/U – 42.5; Tampa Bay – 3

JACKSONVILLE

2015 wDef – 21st, Pass D – 25th, Run D – 4th

2015 wOff – 27th, Pass O – 20th, Run O – 23rd

Tampa’s defense has not been terrible, Jacksonville’s offense has been pretty bad. Many people will skip this game, but I believe that would be a mistake. Jacksonville has played against some very good teams this season and has been pretty much out of the game by halftime. That should not be the case here. Meanwhile T.Y. Yeldon is 3rd in the NFL in touches despite game flow issues. He’s definitely in play here.

50M TARGETS

T.Y. Yeldon ($6,600 FD; $4,400 DK)

300M TARGETS

Jaguars Defense ($4,300 FD; $2,700 DK)

TAMPA BAY

2015 wDef –  13th, Pass D- 18th, Run D – 16th

2015 wOff – 32nd, Pass O – 31st, Run O – 27th

Doug Martin has actually has a decent season this year that could have been very good had the Bucs not been playing from behind all year. Tampa is actually favored in this game, which works in Martin’s favor. He’s the obvious three down back and very affordable across the industry.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston makes the passing game completely unplayable.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Buccaneers Defense ($4,000 FD; $2,500 DK)

Doug Martin ($6,400 FD; $4,700 DK)

 

NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA

Vegas – O/U – 49; Philadelphia – 5.5

NEW ORLEANS

2015 wDef –  32nd, Pass D – 32nd, Run D – 12th

2014 wOff – 7th, Pass O – 15th, Run O – 15th

The Eagles defense has been much better against the run this season than they have the pass. This and the fact that New Orleans is a considerable underdog in a high over/under game work in Drew Brees favor in this game. Brees erased doubts about his arm, throwing for 359 yards and 2 TDs against Dallas. Brees spreads the ball around, but Willie Snead has come on the last couple of weeks and is a very cheap WR #2 at this point.

Game flow and a committee approach limit the Saints running game and severely cap each backs upside.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Drew Brees ($8,100 FD; $7,200 DK)

Willie Snead ($5,300 FD; $3,000DK)

PHILADELPHIA

2015 wDef – 5th, Pass D- 10th, Run D – 2nd

2015 wOff – 22nd, Pass O – 22nd, Run O – 30th

The Saints defense has been pretty bad this season (what else is new), particularly the pass defense. This might be Sam Bradford‘s “get well game.” He’s very reasonably priced across the industry and gets a great match up and a high over/under. Bradford’s favorite target, Jordan Matthews is also very much in play for the same reasons as Bradford. Meanwhile, the Eagles running is a mess. Don’t do that to yourself.

50M TARGETS

Jordan Matthews ($6,800 FD; $6,400 DK)

300M TARGETS

Sam Bradford ($7,500 FD; $6,000 DK)

 

CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE

Vegas – O/U – 43; Baltimore – 6.5

CLEVELAND

2015 wDef – 27th, Pass D – 27th , Run D – 24th

2014 wOff – 29th, Pass O – 17th, Run O – 29th

Consistency and predictability are very important in daily fantasy sports, as they allow us to select players with some level of comfort. Although the Browns have been scoring points on the field recently, there’s little rhyme or reason as to who’s actually performing well. Even though Baltimore’s pass defense has been underwhelming, this is a situation best avoided.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

BALTIMORE

2015 wDef – 11th, Pass D- 11th, Run D – 18th

2015 wOff – 20th, Pass O – 23rd, Run O – 16th

With Steve Smith Sr out for this game, does anyone have any idea who Joe Flacco will be throwing to? Neither do I. I do know however that the Ravens will be relying on the running game and the Browns can’t stop the run. After finally getting on track last week, Justin Forsett is in a great position to keep it going this week.

50M TARGETS

Justin Forsett ($7,200 FD; $5,800 DK)

300M TARGETS

None

 

St LOUIS @ GREEN BAY

Vegas – O/U – 45.5; Green Bay – 10

St LOUIS

2015 wDef – 6th, Pass D – 9th, Run D – 13th

2015 wOff – 19th, Pass O – 14th, Run O – 26th

While the Packers defense overall is playing reasonably well, their dominant offense is hiding a very shaky run defense. The Packers are allowing opponents to run for 4.8 yards per carry against them. Game flow is forcing  teams to abandon the run early, but if St Louis can keep this close for any length of time, Todd Gurley could be a very attractive target.

The Rams passing game is all over the map right now, and even though game flow favors them, inconsistency and a strong Packers pass defense limit the upside here.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Todd Gurley ($6,700 FD; $4,300 DK)

GREEN BAY

2015 wDef – 9th, Pass D- 5th, Run D – 31st

2015 wOff – 2nd, Pass O – 3rd, Run O – 6th

Even though the Rams have not been terrible defensively, the Packers offense has been a machine this year. Devonte Adams is expected to miss this game, so James Jones and Randall Cobb should see all the targets they can handle. On the ground, Eddie Lacy should shred a Rams defense allowing over 27 FanDuel points a game to opposing running backs.

50M TARGETS

Eddie Lacy ($7,600 FD; $6,700 DK)

James Jones ($6,400 FD; $5,700 DK)

300M TARGETS

Randall Cobb ($8,200 FD; $7,500 DK)

Aaron Rodgers ($9,200 FD; $7,900 DK)

 

BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE

Vegas – O/U – 41.5; Buffalo – 2

BUFFALO

2015 wDef – 8th, Pass D – 7th, Run D – 28th

2015 wOff – 11th, Pass O – 8th, Run O – 13th

Buffalo’s offense is beset with injuries. LeSean McCoy is out, Karlos Williams in the concussion protocol and Sammy Watkins is highly questionable. We really have little idea who will play and what their roles will be, so this is a situation better avoided until we have some clarity. The exception here is Charles Clay, who has developed a nice chemistry with Tyrod Taylor and is really the only reliable receiving option in a receiving corps beset by injuries.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Charles Clay ($5,700 FD; $4,100 DK)

TENNESSEE

2015 wDef – 15th, Pass D- 2nd, Run D – 32nd

2015 wOff – 21st, Pass O – 9th, Run O – 18th

Buffalo’s pass defense has been solid this season, but surprisingly their run defense has been terrible. The problem here is that the Titans employ a running back committee with no back getting enough touches to be a safe option. There are much better options out there.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

ARIZONA @ DETROIT

Vegas – O/U – 44; Arizona – 2.5

ARIZONA

2015 wDef – 3rd, Pass D – 6th, Run D – 5th

2015 wOff – 6th, Pass O – 4th, Run O – 14th

After an inauspicious start to the season the Lions defense has been playing much better of late. This game has all the markings of a defensive struggle that probably won’t hit the 44 point over/under. While many Cardinal players have potential to play well, there are much safer options out there.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Cardinals Defense ($5,200 FD; $3,800 DK)

DETROIT

2015 wDef – 18th, Pass D- 24th, Run D – 14th

2015 wOff – 18th, Pass O – 16th, Run O – 32nd

The Lions offense is a complete mess right now and the Cardinals have a very good defense. This whole game is completely off my fantasy radar.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

NEW ENGLAND @ DALLAS

Vegas – O/U – 49.5; New England – 8.5

NEW ENGLAND

2015 wDef – 14th Pass D – 8th, Run D – 29th

2015 wOff – 1st, Pass O – 2nd, Run O – 1st

Vegas has New England scoring nearly 30 points in this game. While the running game is unpredictable as always, the Patriots passing game is in play despite game flow concerns. More than any other NFL team, the Patriots keep the pedal down even in blowouts (this is the team that dropped 51 points on the Jaguars two weeks ago) and the Cowboys defense has been below average this season. Tom Brady and target monster Julian Edelman make for very safe plays while Rob Gronkowski is a 300M target at his inflated salary.

50M TARGETS

Tom Brady ($8,800 FD; $7,800 DK)

Julian Edelman ($7,700 FD; $7,000 DK)

300M TARGETS

Rob Gronkowski ($8,400 FD; $7,500 DK)

DALLAS

2015 wDef – 24th, Pass D- 20th, Run D – 20th

2015 wOff – 9th, Pass O – 13th, Run O – 9th

Until Tony Romo and Dez Bryant return from injury, this offense is way too inconsistent for me to target. There are far safer players out there.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

DENVER @ OAKLAND

Vegas – O/U – 43.5; Denver – 10

DENVER

2015 wDef – 1st, Pass D – 1st, Run D – 10th

2015 wOff – 28th, Pass O – 29th, Run O – 31st

Vegas projects Denver to score about 27 points in this game, so several Broncos players are in play, especially in the passing game. My favorite play here is Owen Daniels. Oakland has been absolutely brutal defending the TE position, allowing an average of 22.7 FanDuel points to opposing tight ends, a full 5 points worse than the 31st ranked team. Daniels has been targeted 21 times on the season, but his chemistry with Peyton Manning is improving, as he has a touch down in each of the last two games.

Denver’s running game has been a mess this season and the position is a full-blown committee at this point. Look elsewhere for a running back.

50M TARGETS

Owen Daniels ($4,900 FD; $2,700 DK)

Broncos Defense ($4,900 FD; $3,600 DK)

300M TARGETS

Demaryius Thomas ($8,600 FD; $8,100 DK)

Emmanuel Sanders ($7,700 FD; $7,400 DK)

OAKLAND

2014 wDef – 22nd, Pass D- 26th, Run D – 9th

2014 wOff – 16th, Pass O – 10th, Run O – 19th

While the Raiders offense has played much better this season than last, Denver possesses the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. Oakland players are completely off my fantasy radar.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

SAN FRANCISCO @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Vegas – O/U – 43; New York Giants – 7

SAN FRANCISCO

2015 wDef – 30th, Pass D – 28th, Run D – 30th

2015 wOff – 31st, Pass O – 32nd, Run O – 8th

San Francisco’s offense is a complete disaster at this point in the season. There’s absolutely no reason any 49ers should be on anyone’s radar.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

NEW YORK GIANTS

2015 wDef – 12th, Pass D- 14th, Run D – 1st

2015 wOff – 12th, Pass O – 12th, Run O – 21st

Offensively, the Giants have been pretty good this season and the 49ers defense has been a mess. The problem here is that the game script heavily favors the Giants running game, which is a three-man committee. Eli Manning is very inconsistent and Odell Beckham Jr is over priced for this match up.

50M TARGETS

Giants Defense ($4,300 FD; $2,900 DK)

300M TARGETS

Josh Brown ($4,700 FD)

 

PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO

Vegas – O/U – 45.5; San Diego – 3

PITTSBURGH

2015 wDef – 16th, Pass D – 16th, Run D – 8th

2015 wOff – 5th, Pass O – 6th, Run O – 4th

This is a very interesting game from a fantasy perspective. While Mike Vick eliminates the passing game from consideration, Le’Veon Bell will asked to shoulder the burden of making the offense work. Since returning from suspension, Bell has scored 22.7 and 24.5 FanDuel points. Here he faces a Chargers defense ranked 25th against the run.

50M TARGETS

Le’Veon Bell ($9,000 FD; $8,500 DK)

300M TARGETS

None

SAN DIEGO

2015 wDef – 25th, Pass D- 19th, Run D – 25th

2015 wOff – 8th Pass O – 7th, Run O – 24th

San Diego’s running game has been sputtering this season leaving Philip Rivers and the passing game to carry the load. Rivers has responded well, leading the NFL in passing yards on the year with 1248. He gets a decent match up against the middle of the road Steelers pass defense. With Steve Johnson doubtful and Michael Floyd highly questionable, Keenan Allen becomes an excellent play. Allen already has 33 receptions on 42 targets and looks poised for a lot of volume in this one.

50M TARGETS

Philip Rivers ($7,500 FD; $6,200 DK)

Josh Lambo ($4,500 FD)

300M TARGETS

Keenan Allen ($7,700 FD; $7,200 DK)

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