Fantasy Football 2019 Breakout Candidate: Dante Pettis
WR Dante Pettis | San Francisco 49ers | 2nd Year
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2018 Stats: 27 receptions, 467 yards, 5 TD
Dante Pettis started his NFL career with 61 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 last year against the Minnesota Vikings. But he only had two targets in Week 2, zero targets in Week 3 and then suffered a knee injury in Week 4 that cost him the next three games.
Pettis was injured the week after quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was sidelined with a torn ACL. When he came back, one target from C.J. Beathard in Week 8 became zero targets in Week 9 against the Oakland Raiders, when Nick Mullens made his first NFL start and completed 16 of 22 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns.
Better volume came for Pettis in Week 10, as he had four catches (for 12 yards) on six targets. But after the 49ers’ Week 11 bye, Pettis really took off.
From Week 12-Week 15, Pettis averaged 84.5 yards per game with four touchdowns over that span. During that four-week stretch he was WR3 in standard scoring and WR8 in full-point PPR. Week 16 wasn’t as good (three catches for 21 yards against the Chicago Bears), and he was injured again, but including that week Pettis was still WR8 in standard scoring and WR11 in full-point PPR over the final five weeks of the meaningful fantasy season. He missed Week 17 with a sprained MCL.
A healthy Garoppolo is an upgrade over Beathard and Mullens, so Pettis’ 60 percent catch rate from last year should go up. If he had qualified, his 17.3 yards per catch would have been top-five in the league.
The 49ers signed Jordan Matthews in free agency and added Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd in the draft. But if someone is going to have a diminished role in San Francisco’s wide receiver corp it looks to be Marquise Goodwin, not Pettis. Tight end George Kittle led the team with 136 targets last year, which more than doubled second place (66-Kendrick Bourne), and his role is not going away.
Dante Pettis' fantasy value could change after the 2019 NFL Draft – and Jimmy Garappolo's return in 2019
More dynasty options whose fantasy values could change during the draft:https://t.co/BG0EbYxgl7 pic.twitter.com/wucypUC3GX
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 19, 2019
Assuming better health and more consistent quarterback play, Pettis’ numbers will naturally go up in his second season. His current ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator (12-team leagues) has him in WR3 territory in both standard (WR37, pick 8.11) and PPR (WR33, pick 7.11).
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The question with Pettis is where the threshold is for 2019 to be considered a breakout. A low-end WR2/high-end WR3 finish feels about right, with catch and yardage somewhere around double last year’s. But with a lot of mouths to feed in San Francisco’s offense, there’s downside that makes a substantial breakout impossible to bank on.
2019 Projection: 60 receptions for 810 yards, 5 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 50%
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