2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Dalvin Cook

RB Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings)| 3rd Year

2018 Stats: 133 carries, 615 yards, 2 TD; 40 receptions, 305 yards, 2 TD

Dalvin Cook has played 15 NFL games, essentially a full season, averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 51 receptions. But a torn ACL cost him all but four games as a rookie in 2017, and a hamstring issue cost him five more games last season.

After the firing of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo last season, the running game got greater focus under interim coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Over those final three games Cook averaged 18 touches (15.3 carries and 2.7 catches) per game, as he averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 10.4 yards per reception.

In five December games, Cook had 520 total yards (5.7 yards per carry), 21 receptions (27 targets) and three total touchdowns. Per-16 games, those numbers project to 218 carries for 1,238 rushing yards, 67 receptions for 426 yards with nine total touchdowns (six rushing, three receiving).

Gary Kubiak has come to the Vikings as an offensive assistant, or “Head Coach, Offense” as some have called it. He’ll bring a zone-blocking scheme with him, as well as what will likely be a more defined role for Cook.

The Vikings made an effort to upgrade their interior offensive line this offseason, signing guard Josh Kline and taking Garrett Bradbury (first round) and Dru Samia (fourth round) in the draft. Bradbury is expected to step in at center, which would shift Pat Elflein to left guard.

Minnesota lost backup running back Latavius Murray in free agency, and replaced him with Alexander Mattison in the third round of the draft. Mattison will be the fantasy handcuff to Cook, a role which has of course bore fruit in each of the last two seasons.

The Vikings are set to run the ball more this year, with better pieces along the offensive line to bolster what was a lagging ground attack in 2018. So if he’s healthy, which is a significant “if”,Cook is in line for a bigger role and a big season.

That injury downside appears baked into Cook’s ADP right now, as RB11 and pick 2.03 in 12-team standard leagues (via Fantasy Football Calculator). His 12-team PPR ADP is in basically the same spot (RB11, pick 2.06).

With 10 running backs being drafted before Cook, including nine or 10 in the first round right now, a case could be made he’ll be a value pick come peak fantasy draft season. I’m not quite there at this point.

The durability concern knocks Cook’s 2019 breakout potential down a chunk of percentage points. But the risk attached can be reduced a little by circling back to take Mattison as the handcuff, or simply taking another good running back early in a draft or auction.

2019 Projection: 238 carries for 1,120 yards, 8 TD; 55 receptions for 420 yards, 2 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 72%

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