The Pros And Cons Of Kerryon Johnson (#FantasyFootball)

Don’t do it, don’t do it, don’t do it, don’t do it, don’t do it, don’t do it, don’t do it… KERRYON MY WAYWARD SO-UH-ON… Damn it!

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% spent from the #SFB9 draft that just wrapped up. And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks third Pros and Cons for the year, on Devonta Freeman! Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy Draft Season will be based on the Pros and Cons of players that the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into your #DraftSZN, future fixtures, and matchups.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

Ladies and Gentlemen of the @GoingFor2 universe, I am here today to introduce you to this weeks topic of conversation, Mr. Kerryon Johnson. Mr. Johnson has been the focal point of recent times due to what seems like his head Franchise’s ineptitude on how to use the Running Back for the past nearly 20 years further igniting the stigma that Detroit Running Backs in the past have had minimal impact since Barry Sanders was gracing the turf and his self admittance in the past of being ok about a potential Running Back Committee suiting him.

In 2018 one of the hottest names leading into the Fantasy Football season was Kerryon Johnson. And why wouldn’t he have been? The 2018 Rookie class was LOADED with Running Back talent, so much so that the New York Giants took a Running Back number two overall, further killing their Franchise in the search for a Quarterback successor to Eli Manning. That’s how good this class was (or how stupid the Giants are; either way). Teams were trading up and reaching for talent like the drought for a running back in 2019 was coming. One of those teams that traded up was Detroit, who grabbed the 5’11, 205lb unit from the University of Auburn. On top of that, the Lions grabbed Frank Ragnow in the first round, beefing up their Offensive line to protect Matt Stafford and open up lanes for Kerryon Johnson. There was hope that Johnson was brought in to end the drought of Running Backs and Committees that have plagued Ford Field for many years. No more Joique Bell types. No more Amir Abdullah experiment. They now have the guy who could/can do it all.

But… They signed LeGarrette Blount. They kept Zach Zenner on the books. Theo Riddick was/is still hanging around to be of use in the passing game as well. Everything that suggested that this may lead us, the Fantasy Football community into another Running Back By Committee. Yes. the dreaded ‘RBBC’. But we know now that Abdullah and Blount can no longer vulture work as both are no longer on the roster. Zach Zenner got himself an extension but right now that means little. Even Theo Riddick is on the roster bubble. Tht gives us hope that they are moving forward with Johnson as ‘the guy’, right? That hope of mass volume of touches and all the targets and glory and wait a minute…

Human goal line poacher C.J. Anderson signed on as a free agent after what can only really be called an incredible end of the season with the LA Rams. Anderson showed many how good he really can be, as the former fantasy football producer helped Todd Gurley and the Rams limp into the Super Bowl. In terms of scoring potential, C.J. Anderson is more than capable to punch one in and get on the field to grind out hard yards, at this stage of his career he may be more of a short-yardage back. On top of that, quietly, Detroit drafted a Running Back in the 6th Round in Ty Johnson out of Maryland, who can do a bit of everything but doesn’t really do much at the same time. We also saw Kerryon Johnson take some time off towards the end of the season, as he succumbed to injury to his knee which he hurt in Week 11 against Carolina. He was put on the Injured Reserve as a result, just a few weeks later when their season was further slipping away. He ultimately avoided surgery for was reported as a sprain, which is great news for all those who currently have Johnson rostered as he has been cleared for O.T.A’s.

THE PROS AND CONS

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‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: Kerryon Johnson played only 10 games last season and still managed to rank 29th overall for Rushing yards.

Amongst Rookies not named Saquon Barkley, Johnson stacked up really well. Yet – it still felt like most of the Running Backs taken from 2018 was held back. Ok, Barkley, I don’t feel like I need to mention him with this class – he is in another class of his own right now. And we know Derrius Guice missed the entire season just like Ronald Jones (except one of them actually played – take a guess at which one!) so bringing either up at this point is redundant too.

No one saw the Phillip Lindsay breakout coming as the UDFA stole Royce Freeman‘s limelight forcing the Broncos coaches into an ‘RBBC’ with Devontae Booker. Rashaad Penny found himself in an ‘RBBC’ also after not winning out against Chris Carson and Mike Davis. Ronald Jones lost his job to Peyton Barber and the other guy, who was it? Jacquizz Rodgers? Sounds right. Yeah, he lost his job to those two but looks like he is getting a second chance with all the ‘coach speak’ this offseason. Nick Chubb broke out towards the end of the season but that wasn’t really until the Browns moved Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville and now sees a backfield that not only has Duke Johnson Jr but will welcome in Kareem Hunt after his suspension is up in Week 9. Hunt, arguably, was one of the Top 3-5 Running Backs in the league last year until the Chiefs cut him due to domestic violence on a young female midseason.

Johnson, alike with the above, was in an ‘RBBC’, and until his injury was starting to break away from his ‘pack’ (get it, Lions? Pack? No? Whatever…)

‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: In six fewer games, Kerryon Johnson had the same amount of Receptions that Tevin Coleman had who is a renown ‘pass-catching back’.

I love a blind comparison! Who doesn’t? We get to test our previous season’s knowledge against a trend we may have overlooked. We may be able to see where we may or may not have gone wrong. It’s a cool little skill to do so why the hell not right?

I have three players in mind:

PLAYER A; in 10 games had slightly under 120 attempts for about 400 yards but did manage to punch in 7 touchdowns. He did have the one receiving touchdown but that didn’t seem to be the focus of this guy, however, he was capable enough to produce when asked upon.

PLAYER B; did manage to play one more game than the other two, and in that time had two touchdowns from 40 receptions – so we know that this is/can be a major component of his game. On the ground, he was fine, with around 130 carries for 600-odd yards with the two scores only. It is an area of improvement that needs work; finishing when he gets the chance. A breakout is on the cards for this third year running back.

PLAYER C; in 10 games had more yards than the other two, on about 120 carries and had a few touchdowns on the ground. He looked ok in the receiving game with 200 or so yards from 32 receptions with the lone score. We know he can do good work in this area, whether he gets that lone opportunity instead of specialist backs in their roster is another thing. From what we see, when he has the ball on the ground he can work and can grow into a receiving role if given the chance.

Who are we?

Specifically, I believe that Alex Collins, or Player A, in 2018 is the floor for Kerryon Johnson. HEY! Don’t groan! Collins himself climbed into that mid-third round in drafts last year and finished with the most Touchdowns of the three still. But comparatively we all bought in and we were all wrong. And at that point, I think a fully fit Dalvin Cook, or PLAYER B is the potential ceiling for Johnson too, which to be fair isn’t bad company to be in when we talk about breakout players for 2019. Cook also finds himself in the early second round of drafts for the second year in a row. Combined, these three would have given you roughly a stat line over 16 games of 178-890-6 Touchdowns on the ground and 46-321-2 Touchdowns in the air. That would have been good to be in the range of RB17 (Nick Chubb; 192-996-8 Touchdowns rushing with 20-149-2 Touchdowns receiving) and the RB23 (Lamar Miller 210-973-5 Touchdowns rushing with 25-163-1 Touchdown receiving).

‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: C.J. Anderson with the L.A. Rams last season had 488 Rushing yards in five games. Kerryon Johnson had 641 total in 10 games.

Darrell Bevell now fronts the Detroit Lions as Offensive Coordinator as Jim-Bob Cooter got the sack and this seems to be one of the main reasons for the Kerryon Johnson hype. Bevell got his first crack as an ‘OC’ in Minnesota in 2006 and with that, Chester Taylor punched out a 303-1216-6 Touchdown rushing stat line with 42-288 bonus in the receiving game. In that same year, no other Running Back had more than 43 rushing attempts for the Vikings. The year prior, Taylor (who was brought in from Baltimore) had a 117-487-0 Touchdown season. Bevell favored one guy, and it was the one he brought in. But the following year, Round One; Pick 7 – Adrian Peterson arrives. During their time together, Peterson averaged 299-1445-13 Touchdowns rushing with 43-30-292 receiving per season. Three seasons with over 12 Touchdowns (including an 18 Touchdown season) and never under 1298 yards in a season (including a 1760 yard season). It’s nit-picking like this that has the hype train on Johnson rolling fast and downhill. We could go on about his time in Seattle with Marshawn Lynch, including a glorious four-year run in which Lynch dominated similarly to Peterson did with Bevell, but it would feel like I am regurgitating the same thing out again… (for the record, 295-1339-12 Touchdown rushing average with 40-31-272-2 Touchdowns receiving average).

Wait.

So Darrell Bevell had Chester Taylor who went for 303-1216-6 rushing and 42-288 receiving in one year. Then Adrian Peterson on a four year average of 299-1445-13 rushing and 43-30-292 receiving. Then Marshaun Lynch with a four year average of 295-1339-12 rushing and 40-31-272-2 receving.

This is good news for those who believe in Kerryon Johnson and sample sizes right?

SEASON PROJECTION

STATS: CARRIES: 273 / RUSHING YARDS: 1258.5 / RUSHING TDS: 9 / TARGETS: 46 / RECEPTIONS: 35 / RECEIVING YARDS: 322 / RECEIVING TDS: 2

FINAL FINISH: This is an extremely conservative ‘floor’ and I believe he can break through this. But this is what I have come up with as said ‘floor’. I have Kerryon Johnson sitting in as the RB13 this season. If you could imagine, the Top 10 Running Backs are who they are – you know who they are. However, from RB11 through to RB24, you could shuffle that pack of players and be ok with where they land. I like Johnson, I’m a big fan of the player, but I need to see a little bit more from him to move the needle, however, the potential is there to be a difference-maker with a breakout. I have him as a high-RB2 right now, but I believe in him as a talent and I love the Bevell hire for him to progress and to jump many who are ahead of him currently.

GOING FOR 2 DYNASTY VALUE: Highest Rank: Nicholas You; @chalkwhite101 as RB12 / Lowest Rank: Ryan Cearfoss; @fntsyfbconnect as RB16 (as of 7/20/19). For more Dynasty Consensus Rankings check out: https://goingfor2.com/2019-dynasty-consensus-rankings-dynastyfootball/?fbclid=IwAR22Ba2td1TgE0O0u59_0ubIq4_ppZP6PQm2uuhFDKWBzK5s4y8IlfR6kfk

 SUMMARY AND STANCE

The beautiful thing is that Johnson’s A.D.P. is starting to creep up, Johnson was in the mid-late fifth round to begin the year and in the past few weeks, he has climbed into the third round alone. Now naturally we know that A.D.P. is just a tool to give you an idea of what the majority is thinking, however, sitting in the third round as the RB19 still? A starting Running Back in the third round like Kerryon Johnson could be a steal if you happen to go ‘Zero RB’ early or happen to buy into say Pat Mahomes or an elite Tight End like Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz or George Kittle in those earlier rounds too, if you are looking at taking a swing at one of the ‘big three’. And if the C.J. Anderson addition bothers you then respectfully to the player (who I have been a fan of for some time) I would remind you of his time in Carolina last year and the fact that the Rams opted not to keep him about despite the need for reinforcement in their backfield too.

Most of the Rookie Running Backs last year not named Saquon Barkley had some teething problems. And if the Alex Collins floor comparison bothers you, then I’m sorry but that third-round running back group in 2018 drafts were brutal – Alex Collins, Jerick McKinnon, LeSean McCoy, Royce Freeman, and Kenyan Drake – all gave you heartburn most weeks. And Dalvin Cook was no saint either, feeling inconsistent coming off an injury-plagued 2017 but the Vikings are moving to a more ‘run orientated’ plan and we love that; yet hesitate at the same ideals for Johnson. And Darrell Bevell may not be the most inspired choice, but it bodes well for the Running Back who gets the nod moving forward. He has a track record of it, and Johnson is the ‘Lions guy’ this year.

If any of this bothers you, then I hate to say it… But I don’t think you have read anything above. The needle is pointing up and my projection still feels conservative. Get on board now and buy-in.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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