2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Rashaad Penny
RB Rashaad Penny (Seattle Seahawks) | 2nd Year
2018 Stats: 85 carries for 419 yards, 2 TD, 9 receptions for 75 yards
Rashaad Penny was a fairly surprising first-round pick last year, but injuries starting with a broken finger in training camp and competition for carries (Chris Carson and Mike Davis) led to a less than impressive debut.
Penny drew compliments for his work during OTAs, with Carson not participating due to “having some work done” on his knee, and he apparently lost 15 pounds during the offseason. Davis (112 carries, 34 receptions in 2018) left for the Chicago Bears in free agency, so there should be some extra opportunities in an offense coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has promised will remain run-heavy (a league-low 427 pass attempts last year) with Penny and Carson as a desired one-two punch.
Potentially, a big year ahead for RB Rashaad Penny, the #Seahawks 1st round pick last season. He’s lost weight, feels great and has been getting mentored by hall of famer & fellow San Diego State Aztec, Marshall Faulk. More on that👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/Dnk38Vjsy0
— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) June 7, 2019
In five of his final seven games last year, including the Wild Card Round loss to the Cowboys, Penny averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry. His regular season average of 4.9 yards per carry led the Seahawks’ backfield. In Week 10 against the Los Angeles Rams, when Carson was out, Penny had 12 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown.
Penny had some boom and bust to him as a rookie, with nine carries of 15-plus yards from Week 4 on and 10 of his 85 total carries going for lost yards (h/t to Rotowire). Nine red zone carries doesn’t stand out as a raw total, but in the context of that being 10.6 percent of his carries it’s notable. He does seem to have some nose for the end zone, with 23 rushing touchdowns during his final season at San Diego State in 2017 (11 as a junior in 2016).
Carson’s presence tamps down expectations for Penny in a broad sense, but the current gap in ADP (via Fantasy Football Calculator) is a bit of a stretch. Carson is RB24 (pick 4.06) in 12-team standard leagues, while Penny is RB32 (pick 7.01). In full-point PPR, the gap is a little wider (RB25, pick 5.02 for Carson, RB35, pick 7.10 for Penny).
Penny is widely being tabbed as a breakout candidate this year. Given how random Seattle’s backfield rotation can be at times, there’s some chance Penny winds up as a workhorse. A low-end RB2 finish (or better) is possible, and that upside even as the hype train starts to roll automatically makes Penny a better value on draft day than Carson, who’s ceiling feels like RB2 range.
But the range of outcomes is still pretty high for Penny, and that prevents me from predicting a full-fledged breakout in 2019.
2018 Projection: 195 carries for 880 yards, 6 TD; 20 receptions for 181 yards
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