2019 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Kenny Golladay

WR Kenny Golladay (Detroit Lions) | 3rd Year

2018 Stats: 70 receptions for 1,063 yards, 5 TD

After averaging 17 yards per catch as a rookie in 2017, Golladay got more opportunities and topped 1,000 yards in his second season. Entering his third season, there are some signs he has another level in him.

Golladay started 2018 fast, posting over 11 PPR fantasy points in each of his first five games with a touchdown in three of those games. A downturn came after Detroit’s Week 6 bye, with just seven targets over the next three games, before a rebound after that.

In eight games after Golden Tate was traded, Golladay had 40 catches on 75 targets (9.4 per game) for 586 yards. Account for missing Week 17 with a chest injury by using his per-game average over that stretch, and those numbers become 45 receptions, 84 targets and 659 yards. But the most convenient full season projection is simply to double those eight game numbers (150 targets, 80 receptions for 1,172 yards).

Some of that late uptick in targets for Golladay can also be attributed to the absence of Marvin Jones, who did not play after Week 10 due to a knee injury, and back-to-back games with 13 and 15 targets skewed that 9.4 targets per game after Tate was dealt. Detroit also added Danny Amendola in free agency and the drafted tight end T.J. Hockenson eighth overall in April.

The Lions shifted toward the running game last season too, perhaps by necessity as the wide receiver depth chart thinned, and that will continue under new offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell.

Golladay’s size (6-foot-4, 213 pounds) and speed (4.5 40) combination has yielded eight 40-plus yard catches over two seasons. But just 14 of his 119 targets last year came in the red zone, with five inside the 10-yard line. That kind of red zone usage is inexplicably deficient, even with inconsistency taken into account (five games with two or more red zone targets).

Simply being better established as the Lions’ No. 1 wide receiver should bring some sort of spike across the board for Golladay in 2019. A healthier Matthew Stafford should help too, as he played through broken bones in his back last season.

Kenny Golladay among young receivers set to break out in 2019 (via @ReggieWayne_17)https://t.co/83XhknkqV7 pic.twitter.com/tln9OA906E

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) June 26, 2019

Golladay finished as a WR2 in 2018 (WR21 in both standard and full point PPR). That’s the range he should be drafted in for this year, and his early ADPs reflect it (WR18 in 12-team standard, WR19 in 12-team full-point PPR, via Fantasy Football Calculator). A fourth-round pick might be a little rich for some, but it’s not a stretch to say Golladay can deliver a full-on breakout, WR1-style campaign this year.

2019 Projection: 78 receptions for 1,125 yards, 7 TD

Breakout Confidence Level: 61%

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