Yahoo DFS Week 8

Week 8 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.

The main Yahoo slate does not include Thursday or Monday Night Football.

For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Four teams play Home and Dome during the Week 8 Sunday slate:

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

Detroit Lions vs New York Giants

Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders

Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos

New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals

 

Preferred Position Price Points

Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.

QB – $29

Jared Goff LAR vs CIN

The Rams have the 2nd highest implied total of the week at 29.25 points. One of the primary reasons for that (aside for the Rams’ offensive efficiency) is because they are playing the Bengals. According to football outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), Cincinnati ranks as the 4th worst efficient passing defense so far in 2019. The added wrinkle in this contest is that it’s taking place overseas. We do not know how much traveling to London will affect Todd Gurley‘s knees. If he is limited at all, look for the Rams to deploy a pass-heavy approach with Jared Goff, even if that is not needed to beat the Bengals.

Kyler Murray ARI @ NO

A dome game in New Orleans favors the passing game for both teams. Even more ammunition for the Cardinals areal attack is the Saints DVOA ranking. They are in the top 10 in run defense efficiency, yet are only league average against the pass. Considering the questions surrounding David Johnson‘s health, it would make a lot of sense for Arizona (just like the Rams) to employ a pass-heavy game plan. If Drew Brees does, in fact, play in this game, then the Saints will likely put up a lot of points. That would force Kyler Murray to try and keep up with his arm. Murray also provides a certain rushing floor so both his arms and legs can help DFS players who select him.

RB – $18-$19

Austin Ekeler LAC @ CHI

The Bears defense is one of the best units in the league. That being said, they have not quite performed up to the standard that they set last season, especially on the ground. Chicago has actually allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. And Austin Ekeler is no stranger to fantasy production. Of all the RBs active on Sunday’s slate, Ekeler has averaged the 3rd most fantasy points per game in 2019 with 19.4 points. That puts him squarely between Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones. But this week, those players are $29 and $30 respectively, while Ekeler is at a discounted $19. Part of that price is the return of Melvin Gordon. However, last week, with Gordon active, Ekeler produced 22 fantasy points. His role in the passing game keeps Ekeler involved no matter the game script.

Latavius Murray NO vs ARI

Looking again at the DVOA, we see that the Cardinals have the 7th least efficient run defense. Yet another RB dealing with ailments, Alvin Kamara missed last week’s game. He was a limited practice participant this week and if Kamara does, in fact, miss this next game, look for Latavius Murray to get a workload similar to last week. He saw 27 carries and 6 targets n week 7. The Saints have the 3rd highest implied total of the week at 29 points. Getting a workhorse back on an elite offense (especially if Brees is active) for only $18 is an opportunity to take advantage of. Still, this situation requires to be monitored.

WR – $21

D.J. Chark JAX vs NYJ

D.J. Chark has had a surprisingly productive season. Of all the WRs active on Sunday’s slate, Chark has averaged the 5th most fantasy points per game at 15.2. It is reasonable to expect another monster game from Chark as the Jets are better at defending the run then they are against the pass, at least according to DVOA. Chark’s worst 2 fantasy performances of this season came in contests where he was shadowed by Chris Harris and Marshon Lattimore. With no elite level CBs on the Jets, Chark should be just fine.

Julian Edelman NE vs CLE

The Patriots have the 2nd highest implied total of the week. That is in spite of the fact that they are dealing with some injuries to the WR corps. For Julian Edelman, there is likely no difference in production, who has received a significant target share all year. Only once in 2019 did Edelman fail to get at least 7 targets. And in 4 instances this season, he had at least 10 targets. Even with limited practice participation this week (nothing new for Edelman) I would still fire him up in most contests.

TE – $17

Zach Ertz PHI @ BUF

Zach Ertz is priced at a season-low $17. Part of that is his disappointing campaign so far in 2019, and part of it is the matchup. However, the Bills are stronger at defending on the perimeter in the secondary. That means, that the area to exploit that defense may very well be with Ertz over the middle. Take advantage and take Ertz at what will likely be his lowest price tag on Yahoo this season.

Gerald Everett LAR vs CIN

Going with Jared Goff at QB, it makes all the sense in the world to stack with his TE Gerald Everett. For the 2nd time in the last 3 weeks, Everett has received double-digit targets showing that Goff has his trust but also that Sean McVay is designing plays to get him open. Going up against the Bengals, Everett should find easy production whether it’s in the red zone or between the 20s.

Best Bet Bargains

RB – Ty Johnson DET vs NYG $13

There is so much uncertainty currently regarding the Lions RB corps. Will they bring in a free agent, or make a trade? As of right now, Ty Johnson is in line to be the starting RB in week 8. How much work he gets is still in question. But at only $13 and with a great matchup in tow, Johnson makes for a great bargain bet this week. The Giants have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to RBs so far in 2019.

WR – Jaron Brown SEA @ ATL $13

The Falcons defense, specifically in the passing game, has been atrocious this year. They are currently ranked as the 2nd least efficient passing defense according to DVOA. Also, they have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to WRs in 2019. Adding fuel to that fire is the fact that this will be a dome game, so passing conditions should be pristine. Jaron Brown actually led the Seahawks in receiving yards last week. Had he not dropped a red zone target, his day could have been even bigger in week 7. Look for redemption on the part of Brown here in week 8, especially considerin that the Seahawks have the highest implied total of week 8 at 30 points.

Dominant Defenses

Los Angeles Rams vs CIN $14

There is no need to pay up for a defense this week when there are a few great options available for under $15. It all begins with the Rams who are facing the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. Last week, the Rams accumulated 21 fantasy points against the Falcons, a much more explosive offense that was playing Home and Dome. Imagine the Rams’ potential in week 8 as they will face the offensive line that is ranked 23rd in adjusted sack rate and 32nd in pass blocking. Add to the fact that this game will be in London, and the Bengals may not travel well across the pond.

Indianapolis Colts vs DEN $12

Much like the Rams, the Colts are also going up against one of the weaker offensive lines in the league, at least in terms of pass-protection. While the Broncos are ranked 6th in adjusted line yards on the ground, they are 29th (4th worst) in adjusted sack rate. Denver will also be without one of its top two playmakers from this season after a trade occurred this week. This offense, which has already struggled throughout 2019, may find it difficult to adjust to this recent personnel change.

Super Stack

Raiders @ Texans

QB – Derek Carr OAK $25

WR – DeAndre Hopkins HOU $32

WR – Kenny Stills HOU $17

TE – Darren Waller OAK $24

Last week, selecting passing attack options facing the Texans really worked as I had Houston and the Colts in this Super Stack section. This week is no different as the Texans have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to QBs in 2019. And while Houston is top 5 in run defense DVOA, they are below average against the pass. The Raiders pass defense in 3rd worst in DVOA so Derek Carr will likely need to air it out in order to keep up. This also bodes well for Darren Waller, Oakland’s top target (by almost double the next most targeted Raider).

Of course, let us not forget the hosts in the Home and Dome contest. Oakland has allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to WRs this season. DeAndre Hopkins has a decent chance to be the highest-scoring player at his position in week 8, and he is not even the highest priced WR on the slate. While it is tough to call a $32 player a value, that is exactly what this feels like. If Hopkins price tag is too much to handle than Kenny Stills offers an intriguing option. With WR injuries on the Texans roster, last week, Stills stepped up and had his first 100-yard game of the season. He is in line to see an even bigger target share, especially if the Raiders can keep up and turn this into a true shootout.

Buccaneers @ Titans

QB – Ryan Tannehill TEN $22

WR – Chris Godwin TB $31

WR – Corey Davis  TEN $14

TE – Cameron Brate TB $12

Give the Buccaneers credit. They have the most efficient run defense according to DVOA. And so far, they have faced elite-level talent at RB, so we know it is for real. For the Titans, that means a pass-heavy game plan may be the best approach. At $22, Ryan Tannehill is one of the lest expensive starters yet should see as much volume as most QBs. By selecting Tannehill, it also makes a lot of sense to stack the Titans leading receiver from last week, Corey Davis. After a difficult opening stretch where Davis caught 6 passes combined in the team’s first 3 games of 2019, he has put up 17+ points performances twice in the last 4 matches. That includes last week with Tannehill as the starter.

Much like Tampa Bay, the Titans run defense is top 3 in DVOA, while their pass defense is under average. This means an aerial attack is likely the key to victory. Paying up for Chris Godwin is very viable, especially considering how cheap these other stack options are. Also, now that he will be the starting TE in week 8, Cameron Brate is one of the best bargain values on the entire slate. Tennessee is especially vulnerable to that position as they have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to TEs this season.

Other Stacks: Bengals @ Rams, Seahawks @ Falcons

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