Five Running Backs to Avoid (#FantasyFootball)
The NFL 2020 fantasy football season will be interesting. The running back position will be no different, especially after the moves in free agency.
There will be some running backs you will be tempted to reach for in the first or second round…think before you jump. Here are five that deserve careful consideration.
Five Running Backs To Avoid in Fantasy Draft 2020
5. Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons: 2019 fantasy stats: RB14 in fantasy points, 14 TDs, 857 rushing yards
You are going to be tempted to reach on Gurley because…well he is Todd Gurley. But let us not forget he is playing on an arthritic knee. He will be playing in a new offensive scheme, on a team who relies heavily on the passing game (this addition may be better for Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley‘s fantasy stock) and he is playing on a team that ranked dead last in rushing percentage rushing only 33.03 percent of the time.
The good news is according to Pro Football Focus his offensive line is better than the offensive line he played behind last season.
4. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars: 2019 fantasy stats: RB9 in fantasy points, 3 touchdowns, 1152 rushing yards
Fournette, to badly quote Winston Churchill “is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” which is what makes fantasy football so exciting or exasperating, depending on where you land. Last season he finished top 10 in regular fantasy stats and top five in PPR formats (he was targeted 100 times for 76 receptions). He was on the field for 61.2% of offensive plays and averaged 3.34 yards after contact.
And yet he only had three touchdowns, to be fair the team only had 27 for the season. While his average yards per carry have increased, for his career he is only averaging 4.0 yards per game.
UGH! All expectations are that Jacksonville will draft a running back in the NFL 2020 Draft. There are a few who will fit their scheme and possibly take over duties as running back catching passes out of the backfield. And then there is Ryquell Armstead who played sparingly last season as Fournette’s back-up. Even so, he rushed for 108 yards on 35 attempts and 14 receptions, 144 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. He is a legitimate contender to take time and possessions away from Fournette.
The Jaguars may also draft a wide receiver and a defensive tackle and maybe a cornerback. Okay, the Jaguars off-season has been…chaotic.
Fournette could easily be a top 10 running back this season. He could more easily be a bust.
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3. Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets: 2019 fantasy football stats: RB 16 in fantasy points, 4 touchdowns, 789 rushing yards
I can remember when Bell was a fantasy stud. That was not last season. And if he stays with Adam Gase and the New York Jets, it is unlikely to be this season. Part of his fantasy football demise could be playing behind the 28th ranked offensive line according to Pro Football Focus, “The Jets averaged just 0.7 rushing yards before contact per attempt, the lowest mark of any team in the NFL.”
Last season Bell touched the ball 311 times, eighth among running backs, and yet he only averaged 3.2 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns. And what used to carry him in fantasy, his receptions out of the backfield, yielded 66 catches for 461 yards and on receiving touchdown.
The Jets have eight selections in the 2020 NFL Draft. Given Gase’s lukewarm enthusiasm for Bell, picking a running back to “share time” cannot be out of the question. Either way, Bell’s efficiency is down as is his fantasy football value.
2. Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2019 fantasy football stats: RB 25 in fantasy football points, 6 touchdowns, 724 rushing yards
Last season the Buccaneers ranked 26 out of 32 team rushing percentage 37.66. This year they won the Sweepstakes, acquired QB12 Tom Brady, and well it doesn’t look good for the running backs of last season. Mainly because as previously stated they have Brady, but more so because there are still running backs available via free agency and the draft.
It is unlikely they get rid of Jones, even though he averaged a lowly 1.9 yards per carry last season. And it is a necessity to have some sort of running game, just don’t count on Jones bringing you the fantasy trophy.
- Jordan Howard, Miami Dolphins: 2019 fantasy stats: 525 yards 6 touchdowns, played only 10 games
Don’t get me wrong, for the Dolphins this is a coup. Before his injury, he was RB 13 in fantasy scoring. And the Dolphins leading rusher last season was quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Howard is now on a team that has lots of holes to fill, the least of which is an offensive line that ranked 31 out of 32 teams rushing percentage 34.15.
It is safe to say that Howard will get the bulk of carries, which only puts him on the fantasy radar. And he has proven to be good in the red zone, last season scoring five of six rushing touchdowns while inside the five-yard line. But this is Miami. The team who was 25th in points scored and 32nd in offense.
Even a good day for Howard isn’t a great day for fantasy football.
Team rushing percentage stats courtesy of NFL football stats
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