Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: David Johnson

May 8, 2020
258

After being inexplicably underused as a rookie in 2015, David Johnson had a full-on breakout in 2016. He led the NFL in yards per scrimmage (2,118) and total touchdowns (20), with 80 receptions on his way to being the top-scoring fantasy running back by a healthy margin.

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But a wrist injury in Week 1 of the 2017 season cost Johnson the rest of that season. In 2018 he looked like a diminished player (258 carries for 940 rushing yards, 50 receptions for 446 yards and 11 total touchdowns) as he finished as RB9 in full-point PPR.

Johnson started 2019 solidly, averaging 102.2 total yards per game over the first six games with five total touchdowns (two rushing, three receiving).

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As Ian Hartitz of Rotoworld alluded to, ankle and back injuries brought a quick exit for Johnson in Week 7 (one carry for two yards). Then he missed two games, the Cardinals traded for Kenyan Drake and the rest is history. Over his last six games last year, Johnson had just 17 carries and six catches on as many targets.

Johnson was traded to the Houston Texans as the opposite centerpiece of the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien seems to see the past version of Johnson coming back in 2020.

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Over a 22 game span from 2018 and into 2019, Johnson was a top-10 fantasy running back in PPR leagues. As Hartitz laid out in a deeper look at Johnson, O’Brien uses a bell cow back without hesitation in Houston.

  • 2014: Arian Foster 260 rushes, 59 targets
  • 2015: Alfred Blue 183 rushes, 16 targets (Foster missed 12 games)
  • 2016: Lamar Miller 268 rushes, 39 targets
  • 2017: Miller 238 rushes, 45 targets
  • 2018: Miller 210 rushes, 35 targets (missed 2 games)
  • 2019: Carlos Hyde 245 rushes, 16 targets

Based on the above Johnson feels like a lock for 250-300 touches this year, even with Duke Johnson in the mix. The Cardinals were literally the league’s worst offense in terms of yardage in 2018, so 308 touches for him qualifies as being one of the only capable players in the fold.

An offense piloted by Deshaun Watson won’t ever be that bad, but Hopkins is leaving behind a huge target share and there was room for Carlos Hyde to get 245 carries last year. Johnson might get to Hyde’s 16 targets from all of 2019 in two or three games this year, and if Hyde can average 4.4 yards per carry Johnson can surely get to 4.0.

Johnson is registering with an ADP of RB27 in full-point PPR right now. Based purely on touch volume there’s some built in value there, and as the top-end rookie backs get more mock draft run Johnson could even move down a little.

Opportunity+Talent=Fantasy Value. Johnson is in line for the first one in spades this year. He seems to still have some of the second part left, even if 2016 is a distant memory never to be repeated. As other fantasy owners pass on him in drafts and auctions, those who can operate with tunnel vision on 2020 should reap some nice reward with Johnson.

David Johnson 2020 Projection: 255 carries for 996 yards, 6 TD; 54 receptions for 459 yards, 1 TD

Bounceback Confidence: 70%

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May 8, 2020
258