Mock Draft Series: Live Blog Part 3

We bring this mock draft to a close with rounds 12-17 of the live blog. This is a 28 round draft so if you are curious for the deep fliers, I will provide a link to the draft on my twitter. I will take a brief hiatus before coming back with a mock draft series focused on re-draft as we gear up for the regular season

This is a 12-team league, PPR scoring, 6 points for TD’s and -4 for INT’s. The rest of scoring is standard. The roster composition is 1 QB, 2 RB’s, 3 WR’s, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 Superflex with 18 bench spots. I will break up the analysis into 5 round segments and give my analysis in real-time. As always, if you have ideas for other mocks, feel free to send me a message on twitter (@HodgesHotTakes).

Round 12:

1. Team L: A.J. Dillon
2. Team K: Kerryon Johnson
3. Team J: Jamison Crowder
4. Team B (TRADE): Hayden Hurst
5. Team B (TRADE): Darrynton Evans
6. Team G: Mike Gesicki
7. Team F: Phillip Lindsey
8. @HodgesHotTakes (TRADE): Mecole Hardman
9. Team D: Bryan Edwards
10. @HodgesHotTakes: Alexander Mattison
11. Team E (TRADE): T.J. Hockenson
12. Team A: Noah Fant

Trade(s) Recap: Team B acquired 12.04 for 18.08 and a 2021 2^nd round rookie. I also made another move, acquiring 12.08 for 18.10 and a 2^nd round rookie. I will discuss the player more below but the price was set on what it took to jump up and get another pick in this round which I absolutely wanted since I didn’t have a round 13 pick.

My Pick: I went Mecole Hardman with 12.08 after trading a 2^nd round rookie and later pick for him. I wanted to only move the 2^nd round rookie but the price was set after two others made trades in the last 12 or so picks. Either way, getting Hardman whose arrow is only pointing up as my #5 WR was a huge get for me.

With 12.10 I went Alexander Mattison and I am sure the Dalvin Cook owner is pissed I grabbed him. He should probably be kicking himself for letting him fall another round. I 100% think Mattison will have future opportunity to be a lead back. That future COULD be as soon as this year if Dalvin Cook holds out or constant injuries crop up again. Dalvin will be angling for a big contract after this season so I might have to wait a year but I still think Mattison contributes in 2020 and I am happy to take him as my RB #4 with sky high potential.

Best Pick: Team D trading up to grab Hayden Hurst looks savvy to me. Not only does have potential in this offense but the selection started a run at the TE position, with 8 TE’s going in next 16 picks. He traded up and got his guy.

Questionable Picks/Moves: Team J grabbing Jamison Crowder with Hardman still on the board is a head scratcher. As soon as I saw that pick made is when I started asking teams to trade with me so I could grab Mecole.

Round 13:

1. Team A: Antonio Gibson
2. Team E (TRADE): Dallas Goedert
3. Team G (TRADE): Anthony Miller
4. Team D: Tyler Higbee
5. Team H (TRADE): Cam Newton
6. Team F: James White
7. Team G: Darrell Henderson
8. Team H: Jonnu Smith
9. Team I: Irv Smith
10. Team J: Curtis Samuel
11. Team K: Marlon Mack
12. Team A (TRADE): Jalen Hurts

Trade(s) Recap: Team A acquired 13.12 and a round 4 pick in exchange for 14.12 and a 2^nd round rookie from Team L. Good move by Team L to significantly improve the rookie pick next year.

My Pick: None as I swapped this pick as part of the Stidham deal. It cost me the opportunity to securing a higher upside backup TE. I would have loved to grab Higbee in this spot.

Best Pick: Speaking of HIgbee, I think he has a chance of being a top 5 TE this year. The Rams moved Cooks and Gurley so those opportunities have to go somewhere. Over the final 5 games of the season last year, Higbee was one of the best TE’s. He is a great value at 14^th TE off the board

Questionable Picks/Moves: Team H grabbing Cam Newton is a head scratcher. I understand it if this pick was made back in March when we assumed he would get a starting job, but we are in June and Cam is going to have to wait till training camp to probably sign. Cam has also indicated he wants a starting job and those might not be around barring an injury. He is not a good get as your #3 QB at this juncture, to much risk.

Round 14:

1. Team L: Rob Gronkowski
2. Team K: Anthony McFarland
3. Team J: Parris Campbell
4. Team I: Duke Johnson
5. Team H: Tony Pollard
6. Team G: Hunter Renfrow
7. Team F: Marvin Jones
8. Team B (TRADE): Joshua Kelley
9. Team B (TRADE): Chase Claypool
10. @HodgesHotTakes: Ian Thomas
11. Team E (TRADE): Preston Williams
12. Team L: K.J. Hamler

Trade(s) Recap: No new trades.

My Pick: Ian Thomas. Not sexy but necessary after the major run on TE’s. Engram is a great TE but he is injury prone so I needed to grab a body who can fill in if we have a worst case scenario. I wanted to do better with my backup TE but plans change. I will probably invest on a few more TE’s in case Engram can’t make it the entire season.

Best Pick: Marvin Jones is great value this late and should start for most rosters. That’s a great find in round 14.

Questionable Picks/Moves: Any rookie pick that went before Preston Williams. This is another example of rookie fever getting out of control. People are grabbing backup RB’s or WR’s with no NFL track record before getting the Dolphins best WR before he got injured last year.

Round 15:

1. Team A: Tyler Johnson
2. Team E (TRADE): Damien Harris
3. Team B (TRADE): Breshard Perriman
4. Team D: Van Jefferson
5. Team B (TRADE): Blake Jarwin
6. Team I (TRADE): Julian Edelman
7. @HodgesHotTakes: Tyrod Taylor
8. Team H: Sterling Shepard
9. Team I: Latavius Murray
10. Team J: Jace Sternberger
11. Team K: Jared Cook
12. Team L: Sammy Watkins

Trade(s) Recap: I moved 15.03 for 16.08 and a 2021 3^rd round rookie. When I pulled the trigger, I felt I had sufficient depth at all positions and I wanted to get back another pick back after I traded my 2^nd round rookie in case I needed to move more draft capital during the season to make a run at the league title. A few other teams swapped picks this round and picks in later rounds, nothing of note so I wont dive into them.

My Pick: Tyrod Taylor. I now own the “Chargers QB” for the Superflex and can comfortably play them if Stidham doesn’t pan out. Tyrod might only start a few games, but I have heard he might get full reign this year. Either way, there is plenty of talent around him and his rushing upside will make him a valuable player until he turns it over to Hebert. His value on my team far outweighs his value on any other team.

Best Pick: Breshard Perriman/Sterling Shephard. While 50% of this round looks dedicated to grabbing future potential, these two owners grabbed valuable depth pieces who can contribute in FLEX if needed due to bye weeks or injury.

Questionable Picks/Moves: Investing a pick in Tyler Johnson, who will be the #3 WR at best, while playing for an offense that will feature two tight end sets, is risky in round 15. Unless you get extremely lucky, Johnson is not in line for much action until 2-3 years down the line. At which time, it’s safe to assume Tom Brady will finally retire. He was drafted due to his ties to a great offense in 2020, but he is someone who won’t see field much until 2022. That’s the kind of thinking you want with your latest round picks, not your middle round picks.

Round 16:

1. Team L: O.J. Howard
2. Team K: Robby Anderson
3. Team J: LaMichael Perine
4. Team F (TRADE): Alshon Jeffrey
5. Team H: Adam Trautman
6. Team G: James Washington
7. Team F: Dede Westbrook
8. Team I (TRADE): Allen Lazard
9. Team D: Rashad Penny
10. @HodgesHotTakes: Tevin Coleman
11. Team E (TRADE): Marcus Mariota
12. Team A: Antonio Gandy-Golden

Trade(s) Recap: I moved 16.08 and 23.03 for 17.04 and 18.08. This was all about not seeing “must-have” players on my board but recognizing I will get better assets with a round 18 pick than a round 23 pick.

My Pick: Tevin Coleman. A little insurance as my #3 and #4 RB’s are high-upside stashes. Coleman SHOULD see some carries in this backfield. He isn’t sexy, but I wanted someone on my bench who can hopefully get a few points if I have to play him due to unforeseen circumstances.

Best Pick: O.J. Howard might have been my pick if he fell to me. He went as the #22 TE but only a year ago he was a top 5 pick. He definitely struggled in the Arians offense but at his young age, he could be a contributor under this new offense OR for a new team. He would have been a solid 3^rd string TE for me.

Questionable Picks/Moves: James Washington has created buzz for 2-3 years now and he has disappointed us every chance he gets. Now he is further down the pecking order and this offense could transition to a new QB at any moment. I think we have enough tape on James to know he isn’t going to be a reliable contributor for us. If you are taking a chance in this round, I prefer a rookie with unknown potential to a player who hasn’t produced in several seasons.

Round 17:

1. Team A: Cole Kmet
2. Team E (TRADE): Mitch Trubinsky
3. @HodgesHotTakes: Jacob Eason
4. @HodgesHotTakes: Chris Herndon
5. Team B (TRADE): Devonte Freeman
6. Team F: Chase Edmonds
7. Team G: Neheim Hynes
8. Team H: Eric Ebron
9. Team I: Giovanni Bernard
10. Team J: Dawson Knox
11. Team K: Ryan Fitzpatrick
12. Team L: Corey Davis

Trade(s) Recap: No trades.

My Pick: I went Jacob Eason and Chris Herndon with my back to back picks. Eason slides in as my #5 QB, long term stash. Phillip Rivers has 2 years, tops, remaining in his career and I expect Eason will get every shot to take over once he hangs them up. As Brady transitions off my squad, hopefully Eason is getting a shot to prove he can lead a team. I needed another upside TE with the oft injured Engram leading my squad. Herndon was marred by injuries last year but the team continues to rave about him. He will be the starter and has potential to be a big time player for the Jets.

Best Pick: Corey Davis might not be the sexiest pick since he is the #2 or #3 option in a run first offense, but I do anticipate the Titans moving on from him after this year and teams seem to love him. Hopefully he can show enough this year and then go to a franchise who will utilize him better. He is still young and a good gamble in round 17.

Questionable Picks/Moves: At drafting, the rumor mills were swirling that Devonte Freeman was willing to sit out the season due to contract demands. It appears he has turned down low offers from the Eagles and Bucs. He is either going to sign as a #2 (at best) RB or risk never playing in this league again. Add in his injury history and I would rather invest on a RB with youth on his side than the aging vet with no team.

Overall:

Hopefully I wasn’t too critical of any team. The draft went quickly and everyone was engaged in contract talks and believe they are building an instant contender. That is the right mindset to have. Glancing at the teams, I don’t see any one team that was egregiously built, instead, the majority of the league fell into “groupthink” and collectively hoarded QB’s and rookie players.

After draft analysis has me as 3^rd best team to win in 2020 and 1^st in dynasty outlook. I capitalized on the overreaching in the earlier rounds and built the deepest WR stable and highest upside starting RB’s in my opinion. I think I have enough at QB to stay afloat short term, with potential to have some decent long term starters. If I hit road bumps early on, I maintained most of my draft capital to be aggressive.

I hope you found this mock draft valuable. If there is one thing you should take away from it is go into a draft with a rough plan on targets but be ready to pivot off that ASAP and let the board come to you. I fully anticipated Mahomes or Lamar being there for me at #3, when that didn’t happen I was happy to get CMC and with a rush of QB’s going off the board between picks, I decided I would build a solid foundation at the skill position areas.

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