Fantasy Football Bounceback Candidate: Saquon Barkley

RB Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) | 3rd Year

2019 Stats: 217 carries for 1,003 yards, 6 TD; 52 receptions for 438 yards, 2 TD

Barkley delivered on expectations as a rookie in 2018, with a league-high 2,028 yards from scrimmage (1,307 rushing) and a robust 91 receptions on 121 targets. In full PPR fantasy scoring, he edged out Christian McCaffrey as the RB1.

Barkley started 2019 strongly, with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games and 13 targets (seven catches). But a high ankle sprain in Week 3 cost him the next three games, and he clearly was not quite himself for a chunk of games after that. He wound up barely topping  1,000 rushing yards (1,003), with a drop to 52 receptions on 73 targets.

For the season (with Week 17), Barkley finished as RB10 in full PPR. Through Week 16, he was RB12 in full PPR. That was in a down year, where he missed three games and didn’t appear fully healthy in four or five others.

In six games after the Giants’ Week 11 bye, Barkley averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per catch with five total touchdowns. Over Week 15-17, he ran for 393 yards with 146 receiving yards with five total scores. A little more usage in the passing game might have been nice (27 targets over the final six games).

In the 13 games he played last year, Barkley had at least three red zone carries four times. His 32 red zone totes was good for a 61.5 percent share of the Giants’ total. With two fully functioning ankles all season, a push toward 2018’s 50 red zone carries (69.4 percent share) seems certain with conversion rates along the same lines of that campaign.

Jason Garrett‘s presence as the Giants’ new offensive coordinator is easy to roll our eyes at. But he will lean on a capable workhorse (see Ezekiel Elliott), and Barkley is a better weapon in the passing game than a lot of backs. Something like the 352 touches he got as a rookie is a solid bet for Barkley this year.

History is against McCaffrey repeating as the top-scoring fantasy running back this year. If there’s a bet is to be placed on who will dethrone him, Barkley has an easily-paved path to it.

In any case I’m all-in on Barkley rebounding back at least to the top-5 of fantasy running backs this year. My crystal ball truly sees a top-3 finish, with a ceiling to be the highest-scoring player in fantasy football.

2020 Projection: 285 carries for 1,340 yards, 12 TD; 74 receptions (92 targets) for 665 yards, 3 TD

Bounceback Confidence Level: 100%

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