Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: D.K. Metcalf
WR D.K. Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks) | 2nd Year
2019 Stats: 58 receptions for 900 yards, 7 TD
D.K. Metcalf entered the 2019 NFL Draft with questions over how he’d translate freak physical tools into pro production. The Seattle Seahawks took him in the second round to find out, and he delivered solidly with 58 catches (on 100 targets) for 900 yards and seven touchdowns.
On a per-game basis in non-PPR fantasy scoring last year, Metcalf outdid T.Y. Hilton and Odell Beckham. He finished as WR30 in non-PPR, but seven drops and three lost fumbles left a lot of fantasy points on the board. He literally would have been a top-20 wide receiver in standard scoring without a chunk of those mistakes.
Metcalf had at least six targets in 10 games last season. Let’s look at his point totals in fullĀ PPR (-2 for a lost fumble).
Week 1: four receptions for 89 yards-12.9 fantasy points
Week 2: three receptions for 61 yards, 1 TD-15.1 fantasy points
Week 3: two receptions for 67 yard-8.7 fantasy points.
Week 7: four receptions for 53 yards, 1 lost fumble-7.3 fantasy points
Week 9: six receptions for 123 yards, 1 TD; one carry for seven yards-25.0 fantasy points
Week 10: six receptions for 70 yards, 1 lost fumble-11.0 fantasy points
Week 12: three receptions for 35 yards-6.5 fantasy points
Week 13: six receptions for 75 yards, 1 lost fumble-11.5 fantasy points
Week 14: six receptions for 78 yards-13.8 fantasy points
Week 17: six receptions for 81 yards, 1 TD-20.1 fantasy points
Metcalf takes a hit in PPR formats, but he had at double-digit PPR fantasy points seven times in those 10 games with six or more targets.
In the Wild Card Round playoff game against the Eagles, Metcalf had seven catches for a rookie record 160 yards and a touchdown.
Brian Schottenheimer doesn’t seem inclined to take the reigns off Russell Wilson, so the Seahawks will continue to be a low-volume pass offense. But Tyler Lockett and Metcalf combined to account for a 42.5 percent target share last year, and both were top-30 wide receivers in standard fantasy scoring. Lockett was top-15 in full PPR and standard.
According to Rotowire, Metcalf lined up outside 65.5 percent of the time as rookie. But he also had four touchdowns in 175 snaps out of the left slot, and Schottenheimer has hinted at moving Metcalf around more this year.
Brian Schottenheimer said the #Seahawks coaching staff has talked "at length" about what more they can unlock with DK Metcalf.
As a result, they plan to move Metcalf around "quite a bit more" in 2020. (via @SportsRadioKJR)
Story: https://t.co/UQJx4BfMgv
— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) April 15, 2020
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Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard of CBS Sports see top-15 or top-12 wide receiver breakout potential for Metcalf this year, and his standard league ADP (WR12, via Fantasy Football Calculator) says people agree. PPR scoring knocks him down a few notches in ADP, as expected.
If top-15 (high-end WR2) or a little higher is the breakout bar for Metcalf, I can’t get there and if I wind up drafting a Seahawks wide receiver it’s more likely to be Lockett. But 2020 can absolutely be a solid step into WR2 territory for Metcalf, ahead of a full-fledged breakout in his third year.
2020 Projection: 68 receptions for 1,034 yards, 7 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 30%
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