Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Christian Kirk

WR Christian Kirk (Arizona Cardinals) | 3rd Year

2019 Stats: 68 receptions for 709 yards, 3 TD; 10 carries for 93 yards

In 13 games last season, Christian Kirk had at least seven targets nine times (double-digits five times) and at least six catches seven times. Project 12.9 fantasy points per game over a full 16 games, and he would have been WR25 in full PPR. He had 15 or more PPR fantasy points five times, and reached double digits a total of seven times.

But he missed three games, and came in as WR38 in full PPR.

Kirk was on the field for a little over 75 percent of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps last year. But narrow to the games he played, and he was over 90 percent 11 times with another game at 89 percent. In head coach Kliff Kingsbury‘s offense, “11” (3WR) and “10” (4WR) personnel was used a total of 67 percent of the time last year according to Sharp Football Stats. Leaving out drop backs and going to pure executed pass attempts, Arizona threw the ball a combined rate of 63.1 percent out of “11” and “10” personnel in 2019.

The Cardinals acquired DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans in a trade this offseason. He will lead the team in targets and target share, but the wealth is in line to be spread more than it was in Houston. Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald will continue to be primary targets for Arizona, with second-year guys Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler in line for bigger roles.

Kirk has good speed (4.47 40). But he is not big (5-foot-11, 200 pounds) or a downfield threat (9.6 aDOT in 2019). His 10.4 yards per catch last year came in 29th out of 30 wide receivers with 100 or more targets, and his 6.6 yards per target was 28th in that group. Scoring doesn’t seem to be an area of budding strength, 12 red zone targets last year and three touchdowns. He did account for 27 percent of the Cardinals’ air yards last year, but that looks like a function of volume.

Kirk has 14 20-plus yard catches on 111 career receptions. If you use the 15 PPR point threshold, he has done that eight times in 25 career games.

The addition of one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. A lack of big play ability, with or without injuries as a reason. A lack of use in the red zone. An offense that will play a fast pace and throw the ball plenty and a starting role are points in Kirk’s corner, but the prospect of competition for targets from down the depth chart almost erases those things.

Kirk’s ADP is at WR47 (12 teams, pick 10.05) in full PPR right now, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. In standard scoring, he’s up at WR37. If that feels backwards you’re right, but Fantasy Pros’ ADP data is much the same (WR41 in full PPR, WR36 in standard).

Even with an ADP that has been moving down, Kirk is still going off the board as a WR3/WR4. There is reason for optimism for the entire Cardinals’ offense, based on quarterback Kyler Murray taking a step in his second season. But the road to a third-year breakout for Kirk is otherwise riddled with potholes.

2020 Projection: 59 receptions for 614 yards, 4 TD; 40 rushing yards

Breakout Confidence Level: 16%

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