Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Curtis Samuel
WR Curtis Samuel (Carolina Panthers) | 4th Year
2019 Stats: 54 receptions for 627 yards, 6 TD; 19 carries for 130 yards, 1 TD
At this time a year ago, Curtis Samuel looked like a fantasy breakout candidate. But it was not to be, as Cam Newton was not himself for two games he played, Kyle Allen started 12 games and rookie Will Grier started two. Among 30 wide receivers with over 100 targets in 2019, Samuel was last in yards per target (6.0). But it was not all his fault.
Samuel was ninth among wide receivers in air yards last year (1,608), spurred by a depth of target (14.8) that was among the highest in the league. He had 981 unrealized air yards.
Highest average depth of target in 2019
Mike Williams – 18.3
Kenny Golladay – 16.1
Robby Anderson – 15.8
Mike Evans – 15.7
Curtis Samuel – 14.8@PFF_Eric ($):https://t.co/mGMYM1Ss9p
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) June 27, 2020
It’s easy to say Samuel was miscast as a vertical receiver in 2019, but he was successful. It’s just that Allen was literally one of the worst downfield passers in the league.
Over the weekend I added Curtis Samuel to the #ReceptionPerception section of the UDK. What went wrong last year? How can he get better? Why was D.J. Moore productive and Samuel wasn't? All questions answered there.
Link to purchase access:https://t.co/9lAJrOQs8b pic.twitter.com/hAWz6ohIh6
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 15, 2020
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Competent QB play is going to lead to a nice boost in fantasy production from D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel
Stats via @SportsInfo_SIS pic.twitter.com/hGm1eJCdiL
— Ryan McCrystal (@Ryan_McCrystal) June 3, 2020
To be fair, Samuel was credited with seven drops in 2019. But 40 of his 105 targets were also deemed uncatchable, which speaks far more to Allen’s incompetence. The switch to the more accurate Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and the addition of Robby Anderson in free agency to serve as the primary deep threat, helps Samuel’s outlook for 2020.
Samuel’s seven targets inside the 5-yard line were tied for second-most in the league last year. His role was a runner was substantial (19 carries) and productive (6.8 yards per carry), and new Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady seems inclined to do whatever it takes to get the ball into his hands.
“Curtis is going to be critical to success,” Brady said during his conference with media Thursday. “Curtis is a playmaker. He fits the mold of what we’re looking for in this type of offense, a guy that you can utilize all around the field and get the ball in the hands and good things happen. We’re getting the ball in space and I’m excited for him to take the next leap.”
Samuel is down the pecking order for touches and targets in Carolina, behind Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Anderson. But it’s going to be hard to be worse than he was last season, even if Bridgewater is hardly a top tier quarterback.
Via Fantasy Football Calculator, Samuel’s ADP is at WR60 in 12-team-standard scoring (pick 13.06). Fantasy Pros’ ADP is similar, at WR61 in standard scoring and WR62 in full PPR.
In the WR5/WR6 range, it’s all upside to draft Samuel right now. It’s also an over-correction, since he was WR36 in full PPR last year with all that worked against him.
A breakout for Samuel would be into top-24 (WR2) range. Things would really have to break well for him for that to happen, and as it stands now it will be hard to count on him week-to-week as much more than a flex play or bye week fill-in. That said, a flier in the waning rounds of a draft feels like it will pay off solidly and what would qualify as a breakout is within the range of outcomes.
2020 Projection: 60 receptions for 725 yards, 6 TD, 85 rushing yards, 1 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 40%
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