NFL 2020: 3 Relevant Fantasy Football Players from NFC West
The NFC West boosts not only one of the best defenses but also multiple players. Players on offense, players who should be padding your fantasy line. There are also a couple of sleepers that you want to watch.
So let’s go:
Arizona Cardinals
The hype surrounding Kyler Murray was justified. This will be the second year for both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Let’s hope Kingsbury’s season is as amazing as his draft house.
Kyler Murray, Quarterback: stats2019: 542 passing attempts, 64.4 completion percentage, 3722 yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 93 rushing attempts, 544 yards, four touchdowns, 17.8 average fantasy points per game
Last season Murray finished his rookie season as QB7 in fantasy circles. There is absolutely no substitute for a dual-threat quarterback and since Lamar is going to be gone by the time you draft, there are other options. And now you have a dual-threat quarterback who has added DeAndre Hopkins to his targets.
So for those keeping score, not only does he have future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, rising star Christian Kirk and all hands Hopkins to target; Murray also had the second-most rushing yards among all quarterbacks last season (544) and the second-best yards per average carry (5.8).
DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver: stats 2019 with Houston Texans: 150 targets, 104 receptions, 1165 yards, seven touchdowns, four drops, 11 average fantasy points per game
This was the steal of 2020 NFL Free Agency. As with all great heist it needs to bring in that windfall.
Hopkins had 150 targets last season in Houston. In Arizona, Fitzgerald had 109 targets and Kirk had 107 targets. Hopkins will most likely not see 150 targets, Murray was ninth in passing attempts last season chucking it 542 times. Hopkins should get in that century range of targets even if Murray stays close to his last season attempts. Meaning both Fitzgerald and Kirk will see a decrease in their targets, but that’s okay.
Murray is the benefactor of this acquisition, no doubt about it. Hopkins will see a regression in his fantasy stats. But even a regression still lands Hopkins in fantasy stud territory.
Kenyan Drake, Running Back: stats 2019 in Arizona: 170 rushing attempts, 817 yards, eight touchdowns, 4.8 average rushing yards; 68 targets, 50 receptions, six drops, 11.7 average fantasy points
Drake became a fantasy stud when he arrived in Arizona. ( I will not bag on Adam Gase…I will not bag on Adam Gase… I will not bag on Adam Gase) In Arizona, he not only accounted for 60.7 percent of the team’s rushing yards (that was with David Johnson hanging around) but he also scored double-digit fantasy points in six of his eight games.
Now there is no Johnson (lol) looking over his shoulder. And Kingsbury offense is still a version of the Air Raid, albeit one that relies on the run. Last season the Cardinals finished with 1990 rushing yards, the tenth best in the NFL. They averaged 5.03 yards a carry, and they made the century mark in yards in 10 games.
The Cardinals will still probably play four wide, but make no mistake about it Drake will be out there too. And with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, he is a more than reliable fantasy option.
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Los Angeles Rams
The Rams fell back to earth last season. This season Kevin O’Connell is coming in as the offensive coordinator. While head coach Sean McVay will still be calling the plays, O’Connell is there to work with quarterback Jared Goff. Still doesn’t put Goff on this list, but it does bode well for others.
Cooper Kupp, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 134 targets, 94 receptions, 1161 yards, 10 touchdowns, 12.4 yards per reception, five drops, 11 average fantasy points per game
There is some discussion as to who will benefit most from the absence Brandin Cooks. There is a strong argument (if you are sticking to wide receivers) to both Robert Woods and Kupp. I choose Kupp because of the familiarity and comfort level he appears to have with Goff.
However, there is reason to believe the Rams will switch from their 11 man personnel to a 12 man personnel. Last season when this occurred Kupp’s stats took a drastic turn downward. For the first eight games, Kupp saw a 28 percent target share. Then came the bye week and the switch. For the rest of the season, Kupp’s target share dropped to 14 percent. He went from a WR2 status to a WR31.
That’s the bad. The good? Kupp accomplished his first eight-week fantasy Yahtzee after returning from an ACL tear. His drop in target share was not at the hands of Woods. And Kupp had the most receiving yards out of the slot for the entire league.
Kupp is dependable, durable (mostly) and although he was out-snapped by Woods (88.83 percent to Kupp 79.64 percent), he scored seven more touchdowns than Woods.
Tyler Higbee, Tight End: stats 2019: 89 targets, 69 receptions, 734 yards, three touchdowns, 10.6 yards per reception, two drops, 6.1 average fantasy points per game
The man who benefited from the switch to a 12-man personnel was Higbee. This is even though the switch calls for two tight ends on the field at a time. Higbee’s main competition is Gerald Everett. Everett was injured and even when he returned Higbee dominated.
The Rams attempted the third-most passes in the league last season. Now there are 121 available targets with the departure of Cooks and Todd Gurley. Higbee will capitalize on that. Why? Because as Kate Magdziuk alludes, it would be too hard to pass up his efficiency. For last season Higbee averaged 109 passer rating when targeted. That’s good.
From week 12-16 no tight end scored more fantasy points than Higbee. Last season he had the same number of red-zone targets as Travis Kelce with twice as many receptions. And if you are worried about Everett, remember in the last two games Higbee saw 23 targets, Everett saw one target.
Cam Akers, Running Back: Rookie
Gurley is gone. Akers was the fourth running back off the board. And while General Manager Les Snead has suggested he wants to see a running-back-by-committee, all indications point to Akers leading that committee.
Darrell Henderson is there for the big play opportunities. Malcolm Brown has yet to show exactly why he is there. Enter Akers.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams played a zone-based run at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL over the last three years. Akers attempted the 16th most zone-based rushing attempts in college last season.
And while the offensive line ranked 26th in rushing yards before contact last season, the Rams still managed to rank third in red-zone plays and fifth in goal-line plays. This bodes well for Akers who played behind a horrible offensive line at Florida State University and still excelled.
Seattle Seahawks
Perhaps this is the year offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer realizes he has a potential future Hall of Fame quarterback on the field. Abandon that rule of 53 and let his quarterback do his thing.
So with that hope:
Russell Wilson, Quarterback: stats 2019: 516 passing attempts, 66.1 completion percentage, 4110 yards, 31 touchdowns, five interceptions; 75 rushing attempts, 342 rushing yards, three touchdowns, 20.5 average fantasy points per game
Wilson is that dual-threat quarterback you want on your fantasy roster. He averaged 32.3 passing attempts per game. He also averaged 4.6 yards per carry.
Now he has an arsenal of potential trustworthy targets. Last season he finished as QB3. That seems about right.
DK Metcalf, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 100 targets, 58 receptions, 900 yards, seven touchdowns, 15.5 yards per reception, eight drops, 8.1 average fantasy points per game
The drops are what killed Metcalf’s fantasy value last season. He finished with a 58 percent catch rate. And he was 11th in drops. This includes the 17 red-zone targets of which he only hauled in 29 percent.
But he improved as the season progressed. In the first eight games, he had a 51.1 percent catch rate. In the final eight games that improved to 63.3 percent.
There is consistent talk surrounding the learning curve for rookie wide receivers. Metcalf’s improvement throughout the season, which included increasing his route tree and limiting the drops should only bolster his fantasy potential in the 2020 season.
Tyler Lockett, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 110 targets, 82 receptions, 1057 yards, eight touchdowns, 12.9 yards per reception, two drops, 9.6 average fantasy points per game
Lockett only needed to get out from under Doug Baldwin‘s shadow. The main fear for fantasy purposes is the looming shadow of Metcalf. But for now, Lockett is the trusted one. Last season he saw 21.3 percent of the target share, catching 74.5 percent of his targets (fourth-best in the league). And although the Seahawks languished 23rd in pass attempts, Lockett managed the second-most red-zone receptions.
San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan mesmerizes in the regular season and disenchants us during Super Bowl runs, okay two Super Bowl runs. Luckily for us, fantasy season is over by then.
George Kittle, Tight-End: stats 2019: 107 targets, 85 receptions, 1053 yards, five touchdowns, 12.4 yards per reception, one drop, 9.8 average fantasy points per game
The Kittle hype is an overdrive and well…I am not immune. So I am just going to lay these stats down for you:
- Per Fantasypros.com, the 49ers have the second easiest schedule for tight ends in 2020
- In 2019, Kittle had 30 percent target share
- Last two season led all receivers in yards after catch with 1494, next closest Michael Thomas with 1091
- Last two season led all receivers in yards after contact with 790, next closest Thomas with 632
- Last two seasons leads all receivers with missed tackles forced with 37, next closest DJ Moore with 30
Mic drop
Raheem Mostert, Running Back: stats 2019: 137 rushing attempts, 772 yards, eight touchdowns, 5.6 average rushing yards; seven targets, six receptions, three drops, 9.4 average fantasy points per game
Let’s be clear, after Kittle (and with Deebo Samuel out with Jones fracture) there is less confidence in the remaining players. But there is a glimmer of possibilities.
The 49ers ran the ball the second-most times in the NFL. (The Baltimore Ravens ran it the most). And now Matt Breida is gone which should open it up for Mostert. I know, Mostert has allegedly asked for a trade…ugh! But if he stays.
Last season he was on the field for 53 percent of the snap count over the final seven weeks. He also has a 69 percent catch rate and averages 10.3 yards per reception.
So if he stays, he will be on the field and is a threat in both the run game and the passing game.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Quarterback: stats 2019: 476 passing attempts, 69.1 percent completion rate, 3978 yards, 27 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 46 rushing attempts, 62 yards, one touchdown, 15.5 average fantasy points per game
Last year was Garoppolo’s first full season with Shanahan. A season in which he attempted the seventh-most red zone throws and the third most passes inside the ten-yard line.
Garoppolo ranked fourth in completion rate, seventh in touchdown rate, third in yards per pass attempt, and 12th in fantasy points per pass attempt.
I know he is in a system that prioritizes the run. And images of Super Bowl haunt you to this day. But he is efficient and if you are playing in a league that awards efficiency, like Scott Fish Bowl, you could do worse.
Conclusion
There are gems in the West, players who will go first round. Think deeper and don’t be swayed by illogical perceptions. Know your league scoring, draft accordingly.
Talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt
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