The Game Plan For Week One (#FantasyFootball)

Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% ready for some FOOTBALL!!! In this week’s ‘Gameplan for the Week’, I will give to you some plays to make for seasonal and daily roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations.

Thank you, and enjoy!

Slant Route

Who is trending up this week?

1. 32%. 5.9.

Doesn’t seem like much. How about the numbers 557.9, 34.86, 448, and 18.27? Or how about the numbers 96-58-1165-9? Or even 9.8 and 15.3? Still nothing? What if I frame it this way:

A.J. Brown was the number one targetted receiver on his team last season with a 32% target share from his quarterback with an average of 5.9 targets per game. The league average for passing attempts through the year was 557.9 with an average of 34.86 passing attempts per game, while the Titans ranked second last in that statistic with 448 passing attempts and an average of 18.27 passing attempts on average per week. His splits on what his season with the two different quarterbacks he supported are vastly different, with Ryan Tannehill and not Marcus Mariota helping him progress further along to what would have been a hypothetical 96-58-1165-9 TD season the way he was tracking and it showed in fantasy, going from 9.8 ppg with Mariota to 15.3 ppg with Tannehill as a result.

A.J. Brown is currently the WR18 in PPR redraft, and that’s fine, but just to compare that as a benchmark the WR18 in fantasy finished with 90 receptions and 1046 yards with an average of 13.9 ppg in 2019 (Tyler Boyd). Our friends at busr.com (hit the link to create your free account) have the O/U set at 1074.5 yards and for me, that’s an easy smash for a guy looking to take a big step forward as his teams leading receiver and improve upon the impressive base his rookie campaign had.

Flat Route

Will we be wrong for the third year in a row?:

So the difference between dynasty and redraft leagues being drafted has a fair bit of time in between them. And to follow along with ADP you can go onto sites like fantasyfootballcalculator.com and see where those who play all year round look at a player compared to those who check-in and out between September and January. One player, in particular, has caught my eye and in May he had an 8th round draft grade and a few months later is being picked up in the mid-to-late 13th round.

What?!

In the last two seasons, John Brown has been drafted as the WR55 and WR57 finished as the WR45 and the WR20 in PPR. Now I know what you are thinking; WR45 that’s not that exciting and that’s fair. But his mid-season splits were more telling than not. With Joe Flacco, he was the WR22 between Weeks 1-9 and fell off the map with Lamar Jackson between Weeks 10 to 17 which included 8 total receptions in that span, and he was the WR104 with 25.4 total points. Last year he had 115 targets from Josh Allen, finished with 219 points and 14.7 ppg. He was also in the Top 20 amongst wide receivers for yards per receptions, and in the Top 20 for first downs, and the Top 20 for yards per game.

John Brown, again, has been shunned in fantasy football drafts. I understand there is concern over the arrival of Stefon Diggs but we are acting like Diggs (or Brown) hasn’t played in a team that can support two top receivers before. But right now, with that 13th round ADP, Brown is going seven rounds behind someone like A.J. Green who hasn’t even played a game in the same period that John Brown has been putting up Top 20 end of season performances.

I mean what are we even doing here?

Comeback Route

Who will make a statement after a poor end to 2019:

Last year was a weird one for the Steelers. They started the season off without Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown and a fresh-faced attack lead by JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner looked to have supporters of the ‘Steel City’ looking forward to better times. Until their Quarterback busted his elbow during the opening game last season.

Ben Roethlisberger will make his long-awaited return from a season-ending injury. And if you are looking for a smash spot, he gets the hapless New York Giants secondary in Week 1. James Bradberry and Logan Ryan (signed this week, just before the season starts) are welcomed addition to the ‘Big Blue’, but the rest of the group of cornerbacks alongside them still does not look settled with Deandre Baker‘s ongoing legal issues and Sam Beal opting out. This inexperienced group of cornerbacks includes second-year players Corey Ballentine and Montre Hartage, with rookies Darnay Holmes and Chris Williamson are on the depth chart that also has to deal with Diontae Johnson and James Washington along with ‘JJSS’ and potentially their rookie receiver getting rave reviews out of training camp in Chase Claypool too.

Pittsburgh’s schedule is user-friendly for ‘Big Ben’ as he not only gets the NFC East on his schedule, but also gets Houston, Denver, and Jacksonville as well. For some Ben Roethlisberger action (via mybookie.ag), he is coming in short at $4 for ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ but has a solid backing at $15 for ‘Regular Season Passing Yards Leader’ as well.

Screen Route

The contrarian play of the week:

Some are looking at their new rookie others a leaning on ‘old faithful’, but I think I’d rather try something different.

If you are the sort of person that fades the tight end position in DFS then this may well be the low cost – high upside play for you in Week 1. The Green Bay Packers are a fair-to-middling defense against tight ends with an average of 12.7 ppg (Draft Kings scoring) in 2019, and coming into his second year, Irv Smith Jr ($3100) without Stefon Diggs and could be in a position to smash as rumors and offseason narrative runs rampant as we hear that the Vikings could move him outside to be the ‘mismatch nightmare’.

Now his record as a rookie against the Packers was abysmal, to say the least, but he did have games where he was fantasy relevant but those games were also against teams like Oakland and Detroit who were very user friendly to the tight ends. Now I know that I’m not instilling a lot of confidence right now, but (per sharpfootballstats.com) he ranked 6th overall for red-zone efficiency amongst Tight Ends with at least 7 Targets, where he logged a 60% success rate with 10 targets, 6 receptions and 2 TD in that area of the field.

Again, if you are the sort that fades the tight end position in DFS then Irv Smith Jr could be the cheap play you are looking for in Week 1.

Out Route

Who am I completely off this week:

We can sit here and say that the Washington Football Team (still, lol) has a mess in the backfield all day and be completely correct in thinking that. However, is anybody thinking of putting one in your lineup in Week 1? Antonio Gibson has the hype but I have a ‘see it to believe it’ feel to him right now. I’m not sure that you’re playing Adrian Peterson if you don’t have to (although he was ok against their opponent in Week 15 with 66 yards and a touchdown), and I’m not sure rolling out Bryce Love, J.D. McKissic, or Peyton Barber in any realm. Oh, and by the way, they get Philadelphia who conceded the 7th fewest fantasy points per game in 2019 to the running back position.

What does look interesting though? The numbers 59 and 64. Why’s that you ask? These were the total points scored in their two previous meetings in 2019. And why is that interesting? Well, my friend, the line for the Over/Under currently sits at 44.

Make what you want from that…

The 9 Route

A straight forward confidence play of the week:

All the best to third overall pick in the draft to Detroit, Jeff Okudah on his debut in Week 1, who faces off against one of the best wide receivers in the league in Allen Robinson. Robinson charted ridiculous stats last year with some extremely poor quarterback play as he finished 2019 as the WR8 in PPR with a nice 15.9 ppg, and see’s only Jimmy Graham (I guess) as the only real recruit to get in his way unless a breakout for Anthony Miller happens.

For those of you who know about Bob Lung’s Consistency Guide and for those who have had their head buried in the sand (hit the link, it’s $9.99 and is pivotal reading for all aspects of Fantasy Football) you would know about Robinson’s monster 2019 season where he had an excellent 81% Clutch Rating and saw him as the 5th most consistent wide receiver as well. His season included 7 games with over 10 targets and 9 games with over 70 receiving yards. But I’m not sure what more we should expect from a guy who has had 150 targets in three of his past five seasons, without forgetting he was out in one of those seasons with an ACL where he only played one game that year.

Since May, Robinson has been drafted as high as the WR8 and is circulating the WR10-12 range in ADP with a few more volatile guys being taken ahead of him. I’d say that he is a steal considering that his opening six weeks of the season is against teams who leaked points to the wide receiver position as Detroit (27th), the Giants (28th), Falcons (18th), Colts (26th), Tampa (32nd) and Panthers (19th) are in his sights.

Hail Mary

I’m swinging for the fences for:

The New England Patriots saw a lot of changes to their team this year, even before players started opting out due to COVID-19 restrictions. We are talking about a team that not only lost Tom Brady, but add in Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton, Ted Karras, Stephen Gostkowski, Marshall Newhouse, and James Develin.

I’m all for Cam Newton as a Patriot and a N’Keal Harry and Damien Harris breakout – I’m here for all of that. But that’s a big, piece of their pie missing though and I get the whole ‘next man up’ ethos but we are talking about 7-9 ‘next men up’ in one hit and I lean on the side of them biting off more than they can currently chew.

But what I am also here for is the +6 start the Dolphins have on the road in Week 1. The Miami outfit has been boosted by the additions on Matt Breida and Jordan Howard as well as three Patriots from free agency (Kyle Van Noy, Ted Karras, and Elandon Roberts), as they also look to build upon more continuity from the 2019 campaign. It’s not often that you’d contemplate betting on the Dolphins against the Patriots, it may as well be now!

I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my updated PPR rankings for GoingFor2.com and my @BackRowGiants podcast out (https://linktr.ee/TheBLeagueSays) as well – please subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.

Let’s all get better together!

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