Rapid Reaction: Jacksonville releases Leonard Fournette
Big news dropped the morning of August 31st, as the Jacksonville Jaguars released former fourth overall pick Leonard Fournette. The writing was on the wall all off-season, the Jaguars opted to not pick up his fifth-year option and rumors swirled Jacksonville was looking to trade him, but nothing ever materialized. Nobody expected Fournette to be back with the Jaguars next season, but releasing him at this point of the off-season is simply shocking. I’ll discuss the fantasy impact this move has on multiple players.
Leonard Fournette
First and foremost, what does this do for Fournette’s fantasy value? In my opinion, arrow down. He’s not going to get the number of touches he would have in Jacksonville, and he’s joining a team less than two weeks before the start of the season. Yes, he’s talented and he will wind up on a team, but you can’t invest a pick in him right now. I was already out on Fournette this season, and this seals the deal for me. If he drops to the the last few rounds, maybe I’ll take a shot on him. Otherwise, I’m staying far far away.
Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo
I lumped these two together because in reality its simply a guessing game who becomes the lead back, if either one does. Armstead has missed most of camp while on COVID-IR, so Ozigbo has a leg up on getting the first crack at being “the guy”. In all honesty, I’m staying away from both, and wouldn’t blow a ton of FAAB or a high waiver priority on them. If you haven’t drafted yet, I wouldn’t mind spending a few bucks in an auction or a late-round pick, but not much more. Jacksonville isn’t a very good football team, the game script will very rarely be in their favor. Even if one emerges, I don’t foresee either being anything more than a bye-week replacement, maybe flex worthy in deeper leagues. They are end of the bench, lottery ticket type of players. There is another running back on Jacksonville I’m excited about, however.
Thompson is the only running back from Jacksonville that I’d want to roster. The Jaguar’s defense is going to be abysmal, and they will be playing a lot of catch-up. Thompson was a favorite of Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden’s when he was the Head Coach in Washington. Thompson had some productive seasons under Gruden, even averaging 15 fantasy points-per-game in 2017. Fournette had a career-high 100 targets last year, so with his exit, there are a lot of vacated targets to be divvied out. If he’s able to stay healthy (a big if), Thompson is in line to have a productive season and someone I’m happy to roster in full PPR leagues.
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Many around the Twitter-verse say this is a bump in value for Minshew and Chark, and I’ll be honest, I was one of those at first too. But the more I looked into it and dug a little deeper, I don’t think this moves the needle for either much. Both are skilled of course, but one of the most exciting things in regards to Minshew and Chark’s fantasy outlook is how awful the defense will be. This season has the making of Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson 2.0. There will be a lot of frustrated owners in the first half of games, but when Jacksonville is getting blown out, I expect Minshew and Chark to become garbage time kings and offer LOTS of production. With or without Fournette, that outlook doesn’t change much.
I do, however, think this will be a boost in value for rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. Chark is the undisputed WR1 on this team, but Shenault has the talent to hit the ground running, and the loss of Fournette opens up 100 targets from last season. Shenault can play all over the field and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gruden use him in the backfield as well. Thompson will absorb many of the targets (if he’s able to stay on the field), but Shenault is someone I was already targeting in later rounds of drafts and is in a position to offer massive upside for free. He’s someone I’m targeting late in drafts and if he’s available on the wire, pick him up. It may be rough at first, as rookie wide-receivers take time to get acclimated to the NFL. But he’s going to get every opportunity to produce.
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