Fantasy Football: Sit/Start Week 1

We are almost there…the start of football season. Fantasy season is on and now it is time to make the hard decisions. We are in a crazy time, no preseason, players opting out, some teams playing with fans in the stand and some not and of course rookies who we could play, should play but will we.

Let’s get going. Minus the obvious starts, your Patrick Mahomes, Michael Thomas, Saquon Barkley, etc. here we gooooooooo.

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME

HOUSTON TEXANS V KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. CHIEFS 9.5 FAVORITE, O/U 54.5

THE CHIEFS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FANS IN STADIUM

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START: RB, DAVID JOHNSON, HOUSTON: Okay, so this game has the highest over/under and the largest spread for the week, which suggests there is going to be plenty of passing especially for Houston.

Last season Kansas City was in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed to running backs. They were 25th in rushing yards allowed, allowing 124.8 average rushing yards per game.

Johnson is the main man in a backfield that needs to keep Mahomes off the field. Johnson is also adept at catching passes out of the backfield. Last season in 13 games he had 47 targets for 370 yards and four touchdowns.

SIT: WR, WILL FULLER, HOUSTON: There will be a time when Fuller is your man, this may not be it. Truth be told I am oscillating between sitting Fuller or Brandin Cooks. Fuller is more of a boom-or-bust receiver and against a defense that allowed only 16.4 average fantasy points to the wide receiver position, we want someone dependable.

CLEVELAND BROWNS V BALTIMORE RAVENS, RAVENS 9 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 48.5

NO FANS FOR “INITIAL POINT” IN 2020 SEASON

The Browns will be improved on the offensive side of the ball, I mean there is nowhere to go but up.

START: TE, MARK ANDREWS, RAVENS: After the Arizona Cardinals, the Cleveland Browns gave up the most fantasy points to the tight end position, 9.2. Add to that the fact that the Ravens led the league in the percentage of targets 40.9 that went to the tight end and one of them is gone.

SIT: TE, AUSTIN HOOPER, BROWNS: The Ravens only allowed an average of 4.7 fantasy points to the tight end position. Hooper will be studly, but this is a new team, new system against against a top three defense.

ARIZONA CARDINALS V SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, 49ERS 7.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 46.5

The 49ers will allow “reduced capacity” of fans in the stadium.

START: QB, JIMMY GAROPPOLO, 49ERS: So here is the skinny. The Cardinals were the absolute worst in allowing fantasy tight ends fantasy points giving up 13.1 fantasy points a game (you are already starting George Kittle). They were also bottom seven in allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks, giving up 22.7 points per game. Somebody’s gotta throw Kittle the ball.

SIT: RB, KENYAN DRAKE, CARDINALS: Drake was seen wearing a walking boot as late as 24th August. He insist that he is “good” and most likely will start Sunday’s game. The problem will not be the foot but the 49ers defense. The 49ers were one of the best defenses against running backs in fantasy scoring allowing an average of 12.9 fantasy points per game.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS V JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, COLTS 7 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 46

The Jaguars will limit stadium capacity to 25 percent.

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START: RB, MARLON MACK, COLTS: I’m not really sure what’s going on with the Jaguars and not sure that it matters. Just know that what was once a formidable defense is now a shell of its former self. And said defense allowed running backs an average of 24.8 fantasy points per game. Mack is fighting off the advances of Jonathan Taylor, and no better place to start in Jacksonville.

SIT: ANY RUNNING BACK STARTING FOR JAGUARS: This isn’t snarky, there just isn’t a reliable starter in that backfield, right now. Add to that the Colts allowed only 97.9 rushing yards to opponents last year while giving up a miserly 14.6 fantasy points to running backs.

MIAMI DOLPHINS V NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, PATRIOTS 6.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 43

The Patriots will allow 20 percent capacity in stadium.

START: RB, JORDAN HOWARD, DOLPHINS: You remember last season when quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was the leading rusher on the team? The Dolphins have done quite a bit to make that not happen this year, including upgrading that porous offensive line. The team did rank 32nd in rushing attempts last season, but again Fitzpatrick was the leading rusher. Even with the addition of Matt Breida, Howard will be the leading rusher.

First game he will face a Patriots defense who touts a defense who last season was all everything including leading the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs with 11. Flash forward to a defense whose front seven is depleted. This includes the losses of Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Donta Hightower. With a secondary that remained largely intact, the run game is the place to be.

SIT: WR, JULIAN EDELMAN, PATRIOTS: The Dolphins are perhaps the most improved defense entering 2020. This includes the additions of cornerback Byron Jones and pass rushers Shaq Lawson, Van Noy, and Emmanuel Ogbah. I believe Cam Newton is more likely to take off running or attempt downfield passes to N’Keal Harry. This leaves one of Brady’s top targets in a much different situation. Edelman will be valuable in PPR formats when Newton has to drop the ball off. Let’s just leave this to having more faith in the Dolphins rebuilt than the Patriots dismantling.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES V WASHINGTON, EAGLES 6.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 44.5

There will be no fans allowed at FedEx Field.

START: TE, ZACH ERTZ, EAGLES: I’m not sure who needs to hear this but Ertz is still a viable fantasy football option. And for his first game of the season he will go up against a Washington defense that is switching to the 4-3 (for the first time in 10 years) under new defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio; has given up 8.9 average fantasy points to the tight end position and whose off-season has been a little chaotic.

SIT:RB, ANTONIO GIBSON, WASHINGTON: Easy all you Gibson truthers, the rookie will get his. Just not in the first game of the season against a team that allowed an average of 88.6 rushing yards last season.

NEW YORK JETS V BUFFALO BILLS, BILLS 6 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 40

The Bills will be allowing a “limited amount” of fans in the stadium.

START: QB, JOSH ALLEN, BILLS: The Jets were a surprisingly adequate defense in 2019. Although they ranked 10th DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) they only had 23 sacks. They only allowed 86.9 rushing yards per game (second in NFL 2019) and they were 17th in passing yards allowed per game (236.2)

Both times they played the Bills last season they managed to keep Allen in check. That ends. The Bills added wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Zack Moss. This will only help a quarterback who has decreased his interceptions, and averages seven rushing attempts per game.

With the lowest over/under predicted for the week’s games, don’t expect much scoring.

SIT: QB, SAM DARNOLD, JETS: I am not sure how many ways Adam Gase can ruin a man, but I’m willing to watch and see. Darnold will face a Bills defense that was fourth in opponents passing yards (196.6) last season. This defense was also top five in limiting quarterback fantasy points per game (12.5).

In their first meeting last season Darnold had 175 yards and one touchdown. In their second meeting he had 199 yards and one touchdown and one interception.

Neither are stats that make you swoon.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

PITTSBURGH STEELERS V NEW YORK GIANTS, STEELERS 4 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 47.5

There will be no fans in stadium.

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START: QB, BEN ROETHLISBERGER, STEELERS: I am of the firm belief that Roethlisberger has a limited positive fantasy output window and it starts here. The Giants allowed an average of 20.7 fantasy points per game to the quarterback. They gave up an average of 264.1 passing yards per game and although they signed cornerback James Bradberry and linebacker Blake Martinez, they lack a pass rush to be feared.

Roethlisberger is returning from an elbow injury that sidelined him last season. This is just the start he needs.

SIT: QB, DANIEL JONES, NEW YORK GIANTS: The Steelers defense collected 54 sacks last season. Jones was sacked 38 times last season. He fumbled the ball 18 times. The Steelers’ defense led the league in turnovers with 38. This is not the game for Jones to get right.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS V CINCINNATI BENGALS, CHARGERS 3.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 45

There will be no fans attending season opener.

START: RB, AUSTIN EKELER, CHARGERS: The Bengals defense was ranked 32nd in average rushing yards allowed per game, giving up 149.9. They also allowed an average of 21.1 average fantasy points per game.

Ekeler finished last season with 557 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 92 receptions, 993 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns, and that was with Melvin Gordon in the fold. Now Gordon is gone and Ekeler is the clear number one against the 32nd ranked rushing defense.

SIT: WR, AJ GREEN, BENGALS: This isn’t just because a rookie quarterback will be going against what is possible the best secondary in the NFL (even without Derwin James), this is all about Green. Green’s last full season was in 2017, a season in which he averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game.

A wide receiver three seasons removed from a full season, playing with a rookie quarterback against a formidable pass rush and secondary does not equal appealing fantasy stats.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS V NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SAINTS 3.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 49.5

There will be no fans at the opener. 

START: WR, CHRIS GODWIN, BUCCANEERS: This game has the third highest over/under of any game this week.  The Bucs have an elite front seven that was historically good at stopping the run game last season.  The Saints front seven was top five good in stopping the run, and then upgraded to Malcom Jenkins.  

I don’t think the Bucs will pass nearly as much as they did last year.  They were fourth averaging 39.4 passing attempts per game (oddly enough New England was right behind them with 38.6) with Jameis Winston throwing an 626 times.  But head coach Bruce Arians style has always been ” no risk it no biscuit” and that dictates tossing the ball around.  

Mike Evans and Godwin combined for 2490 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.  Godwin averaged 11.1 yards/target and 15.5 yards/reception.  He accounted for 1333 yards and nine of those touchdowns.  He also has a drop rate of 2.2 percent.  That bodes well when you have a quarterback who is efficient and likes dependable receivers.  

Honestly, in this game aren’t you starting any receiver you have on either side?

SIT: RB, ALVIN KAMARA, SAINTS: Even if we knew what was going on in the Kamara camp he would be a sit for this game.  First, he has missed training camp and being that it was the only on-field excursions for this preseason that is huge.  Second he is going against what was and still should be a historically good defense at stopping the run.  And lastly (is that a word?), his stats from his appearance against the Bucs last season equal 137 yards and zero touchdowns, that was for two games! ( 62 yards first game and 75 yards second game).

I’m banking on the air assaults in this one. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS V MINNESOTA VIKINGS, VIKINGS A 3 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 46.5

The Vikings official statement indicates there will be “significantly reduced capacity” in stadium. 

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START: WR, ALLEN LAZARD, PACKERS: Now you are going to start Davante Adams, but I can’t be the only one who believes Aaron Rodgers is out to make sure this season is a monumental FU to the Packers before departing.  There is no better place to start than against a division rival who surrendered an average of 23.5 fantasy points a game to wide receivers.  While everyone is watching Adams, Lazard will get his. 

SIT: QB, KIRK COUSINS, VIKINGS: Cousins wasn’t even drafted in some of the drafts I was in, which is odd because last season he was oddly efficient.  Of course, it is easier to be efficient when you only throw the ball around 444 times.  But Cousins will enter this season without Stefon Diggs and the first game against a Green Bay team that was generous against the run, allowing an average 128.7 yards per game, while giving up an average of 20.9 fantasy points to the oppositions running backs. 

There will be a time when you want to play Cousins, this just isn’t it. 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS V CAROLINA PANTHERS, RAIDERS 2.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 47

Panthers will not host fans in week one.

START: WR, DJ MOORE, PANTHERS: The Panthers are an almost complete over haul.  Last season Moore had four touchdowns, 87 receptions and 1175 yards while receiving passes from what could be argued as the most challenging quarterback situations in NFL (Steelers were a close second).  

He now has Teddy Bridgewater under center and Christian McCaffrey to command most of the attention of the defenses.  It also helps that the Raiders gave up an average of 23.7 fantasy points to wide receivers last season. 

SIT: WR, HENRY RUGGS III, RAIDERS: This could honestly just been an open slot for any Vegas wide receiver.  Don’t get twisted, Ruggs will be good, as will Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams (if you aren’t touchdown dependent) and maybe even Nelson Agholor.  The question is who?  Vegas who was pretty good free agency and draft have made some interesting decisions post draft.  

I think Derek Carr and the receiving corps are going to be good.  I just think the rookie is going to need a few games under his belt to solidify a robust start option. 

CHICAGO BEARS V DETROIT LIONS, LIONS 2.5 POINT FAVORITE, OVER/UNDER 44

The Lions will be allowing fans in the stadium the capacity depends on local and state approval. 

START: QB, MITCH TRUBISKY, BEARS: So the Bears have announced to the chagrin of most that Trubisky will be starting the season under center.  The Bears start with the Darius Slay-less Lions, and that could be why.  The Lions allowed Trubisky to throw for 173 yards and three touchdowns in their first meeting last year, while giving up 338 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception in their second meeting.  

Let’s not forget that the Lions were also in the bottom seven in allowing opposing quarterbacks fantasy points, yielding an average of 20.4 fantasy points a week.  Trubisky might not be good for the whole season, but for those brave enough to draft him he could be a sneaky first week good. 

SIT: RB, KERRYON JOHNSON, LIONS: The Lions made Adrian Peterson an offer after he was released by Washington.  This really does not say much for Johnson, I mean they already had the D ‘Andre Swift draft to let Johnson know they weren’t quite sold on him.  Now in the first game of the season they will see one of the most imposing front seven’s in the NFL that just happened to add Robert Quinn to the fray.  

DALLAS COWBOYS V LOS ANGELES RAMS, COWBOYS 2.5 POINT FAVORITE, 51 O/U

There will be no fans allowed in stadium.

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START: WR, MICHAEL GALLUP, COWBOYS: The addition of CeeDee Lamb put the fear in fantasy owners.  A couple things to remember rookie wide receivers normally have a longer getting acquainted period and this year that had a shorter preseason.  

There is also the departure of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten that leaves targets on the table.  Gallup played in 14 games last season and ended up with seven targets less than Amari Cooper.  He also had six touchdowns and 1107 yards.  

This game has the second highest over under with the closest point spread.  It looks to be a good ole fashion shoot-out, and Gallup is more than ready to saddle up.

SIT: RB, CAM AKERS, RAMS: Darrell Henderson is unlikely to play due to a hamstring injury.  Ordinarily that would open up the backfield for Malcolm Brown, who should be the week one starter.  Should Akers has all kinds of talent, but in a game that sees both secondaries a little weakened, and carrying a 51 point over/under my money says that the receiving game will be on full display.  So keep Akers in your back pocket.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS V ATLANTA FALCONS, SEAHAWKS 1.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 49

The Falcons are allowing between 10,000 and 20,000 fans in stadium.

START: TE, HAYDEN HURST, FALCONS: The Falcons offense is loaded.  They lost Austin Hooper but gained Hurst.  Hooper was third on the team in receiving yards last season, he was on the receiving end of 97 targets (which was second on the team behind Julio Jones and slightly ahead of Calvin Ridley) and this was on a team that attempted 684 passes last season.  

Those 97 targets are up for grab against a Seattle team that was bottom five in allowing fantasy points to the tight end position.  

SIT: TE, GREG OLSEN, SEAHAWKS: I respect Olsen.  I also respect Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf all who will be pivotal in this shoot-out against the Falcons.  

Last season the Falcons were third in the NFL in red zone scoring attempts going for it 3.8 times, Seattle was sixth at 3.6.  Lockett and Metcalf had 100 plus targets, Carson had 45, and the tight ends as a unit saw 102 targets.  

Olsen is a slight upgrade over what they had but he isn’t going to vulture targets from Lockett or Metcalf. 

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

TENNESSEE TITANS V DENVER BRONCOS, BRONCOS 1.5 POINT FAVORITE, O/U 41

Broncos will not have fans in stadium. 

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START: TE, NOAH FANT, BRONCOS: Last season Fant led all rookie tight ends in targets (59), receiving yards (562) and he ranked second on the Broncos in receiving touchdowns.  That was with a carousel of quarterbacks.  This year the Broncos loaded up to compete in the West, which included adding Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.  This might prove discouraging later on in the season for Fant, but in the first game I am trusting Drew Lock to go with what he knows.  It also helps that the Titans were in bottom five in allowing fantasy points to tight ends last season.

SIT: WR, AJ BROWN, TITANS: The Titans were 30th last season in passing percentage, passing 51.21 percent of the time.  Now they will go against a Broncos defense that lost Chris Harris Jr, but gained AJ Bouye.  The Broncos were also top seven in limiting wide receiver fantasy points.  

It’s week one.  Play your ‘studs’, trust yourself.  But in those moments of weakness chat up the GoingFor2 squad for your fantasy questions.  We will even be there Sunday morning before game time to answer your fantasy questions. 

Talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt

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