Fantasy Football 2020: Week 6 Start n Sits

It is Week 6 and there are four teams on a bye: New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.

There are no Thursday Night Football games but there will be two Monday Night Football games.

There are of course your regular starts and now that the bye weeks have started and Covid is a concern, a “sit” suggestion is a temper your expectations if you must play him conversation.

SUNDAY AM GAMES START N SITS

CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, O/U 44, CAROLINA 2.5 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, DAVID MONTGOMERY, BEARS: Montgomery has seen his snap count increase from 45% in Week 1 to 81% in Week 5; Last week he was targeted eight times, for seven receptions,30 yards while carrying the ball 10 times for 29 yards and a touchdown. His fantasy production was saved by the touchdown.

This week it will be saved by going up against the Panthers who are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position.

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, MIKE DAVIS, PANTHERS: While the Bears’ defense is only allowing 0.8 rushing touchdowns a game, they did see Ronald Jones gain 106 yards on 17 carries. Davis for his part is averaging 4.78 yards per carry and has been targeted 33 times. In a close game against a really good secondary, Davis should get plenty of opportunities to impress.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, PANTHERS: Bridgewater has had a good run and will continue to do so with a 73% completion percentage. However, this is not the game for him. The Bears’ passing defense has allowed 0.8 passing touchdowns per game, and are 10th in passing yards allowed (230.8). They are also second in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks per game, yielding a miserly12.13.

Bridgewater will get his dump-off passes and hope that his wide receivers keep accumulating those yards after catch.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, O/U 46.5, COLTS 8 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, JONATHAN TAYLOR, COLTS: Taylor and the Colts offense was a disappointment last week. Taylor did give you one touchdown, but his 74 total yardage lacked oomph. This week he will face a Bengals’ defense that is 28th in rushing attempts allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game, and is allowing at least one rushing touchdown per game.

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, TEE HIGGINS, BENGALS: In a game that looks to have the Bengals behind yet again, and a front seven that could disrupt Joe Burrows continuously, having a reliable wide receiver is going to be important. Higgins was on the field for 81% of the snap counts in Week 5. He was also the most targeted wide receiver with eight. (Tyler Boyd was target six times and on the field for 69% of snaps).

SIT: QUARTERBACK, PHILIP RIVERS, COLTS: Until last week Rivers had been managing his erratic tendencies. Last week he finished with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. The stats aren’t good but the look of the passes on the interceptions was worse.

The Colts should be comfortably ahead in this game, allowing Taylor to feed.

DETROIT LIONS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, O/U 54.5, LIONS 3 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, JAMES ROBINSON, JAGUARS: Last week Robinson saw his snap count decrease from 76% prior week to 57%. Even so he was tied for second on the team in targets. This week he will go against a Lions’ defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to running backs (28.58).

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, LAVISKA SHENAULT, JAGUARS: Shenault was the most targeted for the Jaguars (8) last week, while only on the field for 69% of the snap counts. (Keelan Cole led all receivers in snap counts 80%, with six targets). Shenault leveraged his eight targets into seven receptions and team-leading 79 yards. In the past two weeks, he has gained 165 yards.

Shenault’s fantasy floor has been consistently 10+ fantasy points.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, D’ANDRE SWIFT, LIONS: The Lions are coming off their bye week so maybe things are a little less muddled in that backfield. But Swift is currently RB33 in fantasy and he has only been on the field for 30% of Lions’ offensive snaps.

He does lead all Lions’ running backs with 16 targets but his snap percentage is worrisome. He is being out-snapped by Adrian Peterson who has 105 snaps to Swift’s 83. In a game with the second-highest over/under for the week you would think that a pass-catching running back would be essential. But that has been the narrative for the Lions all year and as of yet, he hasn’t.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS, O/U 55.5, VIKINGS 3.5 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, ADAM THIELEN, MINNESOTA: Thielen is on the field for 92% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps, he is being targeted 15% of the time. (Rookie Justin Jefferson is on the field for 73% of the offensive snaps while being on the end of 11% of the targets). This game has the highest over/under for the week and projects to be close.

The Falcons are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (27.78), either wide receiver is in play here.

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, IRV SMITH, JR. MINNESOTA: Smith was seemingly the forgotten man in Minnesota. But that changed somewhat last week, he was on the field for 68% of the offensive snaps, and on the receiving end of five targets (tied for second on team with Jefferson and Dalvin Cook). Smith parlayed that into four receptions for 64 yards. This week he goes against a Falcons defense that is giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position (14.72).

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, RUSSELL GAGE, FALCONS: What is going to happen in Atlanta now that Dan Quinn is gone is anyone’s guess. Gage should be feasting without Julio Jones on the field. However, after being targeted 21 times in the first two weeks, he has just seen eight targets in the past two games. On his five targets in Week 5 he produced two receptions for 16 yards.

WASHINGTON @ NEW YORK GIANTS, O/U 43.5, GIANTS 3 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, DEVONTA FREEMAN, GIANTS: Washington’s defense is 30th in rushing attempts and 28th in rushing touchdowns allowed per game. In back-to-back games, Freeman has been on the field for 53% of the offensive snaps. Last week he have three targets for 27 yards, while carrying the ball 17 times for 60 yards and a touchdown.

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, EVAN ENGRAM, GIANTS: This should be Engram’s game. Week 4 he was on the receiving end of 10 targets. Week 5 he saw that number dwindle to two, but he did manage a rushing touchdown. The Washington Football Team is 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.82) They are also allowing 1.8 passing touchdowns per game and 226.8 passing yards. Engrams 80% plus on-field percentage should yield him a good statistical day against Washington.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, KYLE ALLEN, WASHINGTON: Allen will be starting against the Giants and although the Giants are winless their defense is pretty good. They are fifth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, giving up only 15.91 per game. Add to that Allen could be pulled at any time for Alex Smith and there you have it.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, O/U 47.5, RAVEN 7.5 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, MARQUISE BROWN, RAVENS: Brown will always be that boom-or-bust guy for the Ravens, so you have to pick your spots. The Eagles are surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers ( 28.34). Brown was on the field for 86% of the offensive snaps last week (up from 75% previous week) and he was the most targeted Raven with 10 (Mark Andrews was second with nine). It also helps that the Eagles are giving up an average of two passing touchdowns a game and just got torched by Chase Claypool and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, MARK ANDREWS, RAVENS: Not so much a sleeper as a starter 1A. The Eagles defense is porous and are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Andrews is always in Lamar Jackson’s sights.

The only downside for both Andrews and Brown is that the Ravens get up so much and it becomes the Lamar Jackson highlight reel.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, CARSON WENTZ, EAGLES: The Eagles receiving corps is still decimated. Zac Ertz is MIA. And Wentz is rolling with a 60% completion rate having thrown nine interceptions to six touchdowns while being sacked 19 times.

The upside to Wentz is that he has three rushing touchdowns and is not afraid to take off having 23 rushing attempts for 122 yards. With four good quarterbacks on a bye you may be forced to play Wentz, just temper those expectations.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, O/U 51.5, STEELERS 3.5 FAVORITE

START: WIDE RECEIVER, JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, STEELERS: I know you rushed to the waiver wire to pick up Claypool and he is going to be good. But Ben Roethlisberger has a tendency to spread the wealth around and it looks like it is Schuster time ( provided Diontae Johnson is out with his back issues).  Smith-Schuster has been slowed by a knee issue that has to be monitored, which probably has something to do with him not getting more than 50 receiving yards in his last three games.  

The Browns are giving up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers (31.06), so realistically any healthy Steeler wide receiver is in play.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, KAREEM HUNT, BROWNS: You are going to be tempted to sit Hunt and rightly so, the Steelers are second against the run, giving up 64. total rushing yards a game, while allowing only 0.8 rushing touchdowns.  

But last week Hunt was on the field for 70% of the offensive snaps.  (The next most was D ‘Ernest Johnson with 30%). He carried the ball 20 times and was targeted four times.  With that much opportunity, and noting Miles Sanders scored twice with 80 rushing yards on this defense last week; there is hope for optimism. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, BAKER MAYFIELD, BROWNS: The Steelers are first in sack percentage, sacking their opponents 12.27% of the time, they are second in opponents interceptions thrown per game with 1.5.  Mayfield will enter the game on a four-game win streak.  But keep in mind, even against the Dallas Cowboys defense, Mayfield only had 165 yards, two touchdowns and two sacks.  This is an entirely different animal. 

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, O/U 54, TITANS 3 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, DERRICK HENRY, TITANS: I realize you were probably going to start Henry regardless, but remember the Titans will play this game on a really short turnaround.  This is presumably why Henry only had 19 rushes in a blow-out win against the Buffalo Bills, Tuesday.  

The Texans are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs.  A semi-rested Henry should be fine. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, DAVID JOHNSON, TEXANS: The Texans tasted their first victory in the Bill O’Brien less-era.  Johnson did his part and rushed for 96 yards on 17 carries and was targeted four times.  The Titans are in the bottom six in giving up rushing yards per game, giving opponents 148.2.  They also just played on Tuesday.  

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, RANDALL COBB, TEXANS: Cobb is looking at a 12% snap share, less than both Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller.  He has had 19 receptions in five games, for 260 yards and one touchdown.  His touchdown percentage is 5.3, Cooks is 5.6% and Fuller is 13.3%.  Unless he starts to get more play in the offense, he is too iffy to start. 

DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, O/U 46.5, PATRIOTS 9.5 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, CAM NEWTON, PATRIOTS: Newton should return from his Covid quarantine.  The Broncos have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing quarterbacks and that has been against quarterbacks far less able to run than Newton.  

SLEEPER: TIGHT END, NOAH FANT, BRONCOS: The Patriots sit at 12th at passing yards allowed per game.  Given the amount of time Bill Belichick has had to prepare, Jerry Jeudy could be in trouble.  Enter Fant who is returning from injury and should get the most of the attention from Drew Lock who is also returning from injury. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DAMIEN HARRIS, PATRIOTS: This is assuming that Harris is the starting running back.  Whomever it is, the Broncos have given up the least amount of fantasy points to the running back position, 12.08

SUNDAY AFTERNOON GAMES

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, O/U 47.5, DOLPHINS 9 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, RYAN FITZPATRICK, DOLPHINS: DREW BREES, RUSSELL WILSON, DEREK CARR AND JUSTIN HERBERT are the quarterbacks on a bye this week.  If you are in need of a replacement you could do worse than Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick will come into the game with a 95.3 QBR and a 70% completion rate.  Last week all he did was travel to San Francisco and drop 350 passing yards and three touchdowns on that defense.  And oh yeah, the Jets’ defense is 25th against the pass allowing 265.6 passing yards per game. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, PRESTON WILLIAMS, DOLPHINS: There he is!  Williams appears to be getting in sync and adjusting to playing after injury.  Against the Niners, he was targeted five times, reeled in four receptions for 106 yards and one touchdown.  Williams snap count was down to 60% from Week 1 total of 90%, but you cannot deny he is being more productive.

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, BRAXTON BERRIOS, JETS: It appeared that Joe Flacco did not have eyes for Berrios, in Week 5.  After seeing eight targets in Week 1, Berrios was on the receiving end of two targets last week.  While his snap counts have gradually increased his targets have equally decreased.  

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, O/U 54, PACKERS 1 FAVORITE

START: RUNNING BACK, RONALD JONES, TAMPA BAY: Jones has proved he can be the workhorse in the Tampa Bay backfield with Leonard Fournette out.  Let’s just hope that Bruce Arians feels the same way.  The Packers are giving up 26.2 fantasy points to the running back position, that’s next to last.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, AARON JONES, PACKERS: In most situations, Jones would be considered a sure-fire starter and yes start him you will.  However, he is going against the coveted Bucs top 10 run defense.  The only thing is lost Vita Vea last week to a lower leg injury.  He was pivotal in the run defense and ranked seventh among defensive tackles in pressure rate.  

And even with the bye week, Jones is RB2 in fantasy, averaging 5.75 yards per rush with 23 targets.  

SIT: TIGHT END, ROB GRONKOWSKI, BUCCANEERS: There still remains that sliver of hope that the old Gronkowski will be back.  Unfortunately, Gronk is just looking old.  And now he will face a Packers’ defense that is only allowing 4.0 fantasy points to the tight end position. 

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, O/U 51, RAMS 3 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, JARED GOFF, RAMS: Goff is on a team that is seventh in rushing yards per game and employs a running back by committee backfield.  The Rams are 16th in passing yards where Goff has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games.  The Niners miss Nick Bosa.  And last week they allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for three touchdowns and 300 plus yards.  Goff should be fine. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, RAHEEM MOSTERT, NINERS: Mostert is back from his knee injury and last week he had 11 rushes for 90 yards while picking up three receptions for 29 yards.  The Rams looked good against the running backs of the Washington Football Team and the New York Giants, but they allowed over 100 total yards to Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders and Devin Singeltary.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, DARRELL HENDERSON, RAMS: See above, the Rams have two very good running backs and one serviceable one.  Henderson comes under the very good label but must share time.  Last week he was on the field for 44% of the offensive snaps.   He finished with 15 carries, one touchdown, four targets, 30 yards and one touchdown.  Cam Akers was limited to 12 snaps but that is sure to increase and Malcolm Brown was on the field for 38% of the snaps.  It is also worth mentioning that the Niners are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the running back position (13.02).

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BUFFALO BILLS

START: WIDE RECEIVER, COLE BEASLEY, BILLS: Beasley has become Josh Allen‘s security blanket.  In the painful loss to the Tennessee Titans, Beasley was not targeted in the first half.  In the second half, he was targeted eight times for six receptions and 53 yards.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, TJ YELDON, BILLS: Yeldon was entrusted with the third-down role and then he was targeted in the end zone for a touchdown.  If Moss is still out for this MNF, Yeldon could do some damage. It remains to be seen how the Bills will bounce back from their Tuesday night massacre, but running the ball more against the Chiefs 29th ranked run defense is an option. 

SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, MECOLE HARDMAN, CHIEFS: Hardman came in when Sammy Watkins left the game with an injury.  Hardman was on the field for 71% of the offensive snaps but only saw three targets for 50 yards.  

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ DALLAS COWBOYS, O/U 54.5, CARDINALS 2 FAVORITE

START: QUARTERBACK, KYLE MURRAY, CARDINALS: This could just as easily said start DeAndre Hopkins but you know that.  Just as a reminder the Cowboys are giving up 31.48 fantasy points to the wide receiver position.  That’s 31st in the league.  They are also allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game 155.8.  Murray should jump on both of those. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, CHRISTIAN KIRK, CARDINALS: In Week 5, Larry Fitzgerald, Hopkins and Kirk were all targeted seven times.  This is good news for Kirk because he was only on the field for 59% of the offensive snaps, to Hopkins 87% and Fitzgerald 59%.  In a game that looks to be a shoot-out against a subpar defense both wide receivers can feast.

SIT: RUNNING BACK, KENYAN DRAKE, CARDINALS: There was a Drake sighting last week in the blow-out of the Jets.  He rushed 18 times for 60 yards and a touchdown.  What was troubling was he was targeted just one time while being on the field for 67% of the snap counts.  Chase Edmonds on the other hand was on the field for 45% of the offensive snaps and reaped six targets for five receptions and 56 yards. He also had three rushes for 36 yards and a touchdown.  Who are you going to trust in the Cardinals backfield?

With the injury to Dax Prescott, Andy Dalton will now be under center.  With all the weapons around him he should thrive, but too small a sample size to see who his favorite will become.  

Good Luck and come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt

 

 

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